As regards to your earlier point about independents:
A generic Republican candidate is much different that Romney, given that the average Republican candidate in this primary is just left of bat****. Polls are also pretty much meaningless this far out from an election. Obama could win big next year if the economy improves (
) or lose even bigger if the Eurozone drags us into a double-dip (
).By the way, I highly recommend this Nate Silver piece on Obama's reelection chances from the NYT Magazine.

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