Will sexual harassment allegations hurt Cain's Presidential chances

[Dinner]

It will make him even more unelectable in a general election but he was already unelectable and wasn't going to win the nomination anyway. Really, the GOP has a major problem in that the party elites want Romney because he's backed by banker money and is seen as a viable candidate in the general election but the tea bagger dominated primary voters hate him because he's a Mormon instead of an evangelical and because he flip flops all over the place making voters think they can't count on him being a die hard tea bagger (which is correct but it's also true a die hard tea bagger can't win a national election). That means the win nuts and religious fundamentalists are flailing around trying to find somebody, any body, who isn't Romney to rally behind. They first loved Michelle Bauchmann until she spoke and everyone realized she was a moonbat & a crank, then they switched to Donald Trump but it was obvious to everyone with half a brain Trump wasn't serious and was just trying to promote his reality TV show, then they all switched to Rick Perry until (in about one week flat) it became obvious Perry was a drooling idiot who wasn't ready for prime time... So that really only left Herman Cain who isn't even a real candidate who has never had the organization to run a ground game (vital for get out the vote campaign efforts), who still isn't bothering to build any ground organizations (because he's not a serious candidate), and who is really just on a book tour trying to sell books and become famous so he can make more money speaking at partisan events.

Herman Cain won't win because he can't win. Most of his money has come just from the Koch Brothers because he's one of their hand picked spokesmen and it seems no one is more surprised than him that he's actually leading in the wingnut polls but he knows he can't win and that's why he's not bothering to assemble anything remotely like an actual campaign team or organization. The wingnuts just have to know deep down that they're being played for fools but they don't want to admit it not even to themselves. Romney will be the nominee because their party the party elite has decided that is the way it will be.

[Dinner]

While I agree in general, that may be what is attracting people.

What's attracting people most to Cain is he's the last dark horse candidate on the field who isn't Romney and who isn't a Mormon. Other than that he has nothing going for him.

[OzzyKP]

I predict also that after Romney gets the nod, the general will be very evenly matched (no idea who will win), it'll be negative, and turn out will be low.

[Imran Siddiqui]

But what is the average black man going to do if he has to choose between two black men. If you think Obama sold out you might actually have a choice.

What are you, nuts? You think they'll vote for a black Republican over a black Democrat? Especially the first black Democratic President? What are you smoking?

[rah]

It's too bad Ben is banned since I've seen him open threads on other sites proclaiming Cain's chances.

[Dinner]

And if I remember correctly Hilary was a lock over a year in advance of 2008.
I agree the odds are low, but we're still pretty far away to the point that almost anything could still happen.

Hillary was the pick of the Democratic elites but the Democratic Party is extremely decentralized (some would say disorganized) so you can have these period upsets. That really can't happen in the Republican Party is highly centralized in all things, is dependent on a few extremely wealthy businesses donors and individual donors, plus even the rank and file steeped in group think because they segregate themselves using "alternative media" which is really nothing more than lies and propaganda. They really do exist in their own little reality bubble which bares no resemblance to the real world. They really do believe that Obama is a Kenyan born, "Socialist-Marxist-Fascist", secret Muslim, secret terrorist sleeper agent, who is out to destroy America, who is trying to kill grandma, and who has set himself up as the new dictator of America because he has secretly destroyed democracy. Name just about any major policy position and Republicans will normally be factually incorrect on it. They really do live in their own little world devoid of facts and reality.

[rah]

What are you, nuts? You think they'll vote for a black Republican over a black Democrat? Especially the first black Democratic President? What are you smoking?

I've read a lot of discontent from blacks that don't think he has done much for them. The feeling of him having sold out and betraying them and taking their vote for granted. I guess the press you read doesn't cover that aspect.

[Dinner]

What are you, nuts? You think they'll vote for a black Republican over a black Democrat? Especially the first black Democratic President? What are you smoking?

Imran is right. A black Republican might get more than the traditional 5%-10% of black votes Republicans normally get but the vast, vast majority are going to go for the real thing rather then the pale (dark?) imitation. They don't vote for Republicans because Republicans love to be racist against blacks, propose policies which hurt blacks, and putting a black face on the same old horse crap isn't going to sell much better.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

I predict also that after Romney gets the nod, the general will be very evenly matched (no idea who will win), it'll be negative, and turn out will be low.

If turnout is low then GOP will likely win regadless of Romney's inability to close with the party base. The feeling is anyone but Obama on the right (including Romney author of Obamacare). Thus regardless of the nominee the right will be motivated.

The undecided middle is where it will be decided, who can appear more reasonable. A candidate like Romney will likely sooth the middle. Obama will try but he has made a concerted attempt to go left to reclaim the enthusiams of his base and is polling particularly badly with independents.

If turn out is low that means likely the drop off will be from the left. Will be interesting months ahead to see if OWS gains momentum and legitamacy or completely tarnishes the left.

[Dinner]

I predict also that after Romney gets the nod, the general will be very evenly matched (no idea who will win), it'll be negative, and turn out will be low.

It will be very negative and turn out will be very low. That seems to favor the GOP because the lower the turn out the better their chances. Of course, Republicans have spent the last year trying to make it more difficult for people to vote, trying to prevent groups from qualifying to vote period (such as college students, anyone convicted of a crime, and, yes, even service men on deployment overseas), and generally trying to supress the vote of groups which tend to vote for Democratic Party candidates. We're going backwards by big steps when it comes to voting rights, access to the polls, old fashioned dirty tricks, and jim crow like voter suppression efforts and it's all coming from the right wing. That should tell you who has contempt for Democracy.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I've read a lot of discontent from blacks that don't think he has done much for them. The feeling of him having sold out and betraying them and taking their vote for granted. I guess the press you read doesn't cover that aspect.

I want to know what kind of kool-aid you are drinking that makes one think that black voters are going to pick Cain over Obama.

[Hauldren Collider]

He has chances? When did that happen?

QFT

[Hauldren Collider]

I want to know what kind of kool-aid you are drinking that makes one think that black voters are going to pick Cain over Obama.

[Hauldren Collider]

Intrade already had him at ~6% to win the republican nomination. He never had a chance at the presidency.

I have no idea why you trust intrade so much...yay, it's a "market", but is their predictive record really all that good?

[OzzyKP]

If turnout is low then GOP will likely win regadless of Romney's inability to close with the party base. The feeling is anyone but Obama on the right (including Romney author of Obamacare). Thus regardless of the nominee the right will be motivated.

The undecided middle is where it will be decided, who can appear more reasonable. A candidate like Romney will likely sooth the middle. Obama will try but he has made a concerted attempt to go left to reclaim the enthusiams of his base and is polling particularly badly with independents.

If turn out is low that means likely the drop off will be from the left. Will be interesting months ahead to see if OWS gains momentum and legitamacy or completely tarnishes the left.

Perhaps. The low turnout will hurt both sides. One of the GOP's most active voting blocks, Evangelicals, won't make a great effort to come to the polls for Romney. The Tea Party folks, another recently active voting block, also won't make as much effort. Both will come and vote for him, but not in great numbers. Romney won't seem to be as big of a threat as Bachman or Perry, so the left, who are already disillusioned with Obama, won't make as much effort to turn out either.

Just like most recent elections it'll come down to narrow margins in a few swing states. Obama has an advantage with his strong ground organization and his huge war chest. That'll be very tough for Romney to match. But the overall economy and such will hurt Obama as well. I could see plenty of ways for Obama to win this. It'll certainly be close.