Terrorists cross Egyptian border; kill 6, wound 25 Israeli civilians

[giblets]

Isn't per person a better measure of economic strength? HC is saying better, more powerful, isn't he?

If we're dealing with military potential, wouldn't total GDP be more useful? I mean, I don't think Luxembourg is going to have a powerful military anytime soon.

[Al B. Sure!]

Expectations of future military prowess based on past events are not at all uncommon.

After Friedrich the Prussians were the lords of Europe.

After Napolean the French military had a bloated reputation. It literally took all of Europe united and in the field at the same time to bring him down. No, not Waterloo, Leipzig and the Peninsula.

After 1870 the German Army was the vaunt, again.

After WWI the French Army was widely regarded as capable of thrashing the Hun again if needed.

None of this was indicative of racism. It was and is indicative of how difficult it can be to predict future events on past performance when humans are involved. Assumptions quite often fail to meet reality. Conditions change.

Nah, the Egyptian military wouldn't be able to beat the IDF in a conventional war. It's not going to happen. If somehow the Egyptians gained the upper hand, the Israelis would probably do something insane like nuke Cairo and the world will have the biggest ****storm ever.

[notyoueither]

If we're dealing with military potential, wouldn't total GDP be more useful? I mean, I don't think Luxembourg is going to have a powerful military anytime soon.

I think you have to balance it, but a theoretical country of a trillion people each with an income of $10, or $100 dollars could hardly be said to be better than the US at anything economically.

[notyoueither]

Nah, the Egyptian military wouldn't be able to beat the IDF in a conventional war. It's not going to happen. If somehow the Egyptians gained the upper hand, the Israelis would probably do something insane like nuke Cairo and the world will have the biggest ****storm ever.

I was commenting on Asher's assertion that appraisals of IDF performance in future conflicts must be based on racism.

It is in fact quite common to make assumptions about the future based on the past that are quite faulty.

[Al B. Sure!]

If we're dealing with military potential, wouldn't total GDP be more useful? I mean, I don't think Luxembourg is going to have a powerful military anytime soon.

Egyptian military:
Manpower:
468,500 active personnel
479,000 reservists
15,540,234 fit for military service

Expenditures:
$5.85 Billion USD
Percent of GDP: 3.12%


IDF:
Manpower:
187,000 active personnel
565,000 reservists
2,419,222 fit for military service (including females)

Expenditures:
$16 Billion USD
Percent of GDP: 6.9%



The Egyptian military is a lot larger but spends only 36% of what Israel spends in absolute terms. The IDF are so much better equipped and trained and that's what would matter in a conventional war.

[Asher]

I was commenting on Asher's assertion that appraisals of IDF performance in future conflicts must be based on racism.

That's not where the racism comes from.

It comes from the fact that Israelis are always talking derogatorily of "Arabs". Not just in the instances of military history.

There's a blatant superiority complex Israelis have. Their military history is but one reason they have that.

[Az]

Literally everyone should posting about I/P because everyone doesn't know what the **** they are talking about.

Some reality:

-Israel is not going to invade Sinai, even though it is certainly the weakness of the Egyptian central government that allowed for this.
-Israel is not occupying Gaza.
-"Good" for the Hamas on shooting up a bunch of people, most of them civilians, of course. You'd think that if they mustered to bring out a platoon-sized force, they'd be able to attack a military unit... but they do not care.
-This changes nothing about the general situation.

Everybody calm the **** down. "Israel retaliated by killing a child" - Of course noone will post about the guy who has organized the whole thing and got killed

[Asher]

Israel concluded in a matter of a couple hours exactly who organized the whole thing? Really? You buy that?

I'm pretty certain they have a list of targets, and every time they retaliate they knock the top guy off.

[Az]

And this is excellent. He is the one bearing responsibility for it, as it is a militant (in nature) terrorist (in its activities) organization.

It is either this, or a full-scale invasion and occupation of the Gaza strip. This is what is possible. Getting "Annoyed" with Israel is plenty pointless, since Israel is in no condition to normalize the situation with the Palestinians.

[onodera]

HC, Israel can't afford another massive war, just like Russia can't. It will be a Pyrrhic victory for us, but Israel will lose.
They used to kick the asses of Arab nationalists, but now they are opposed by Islamic fundamentalists. They still get two loserface neighbours, but Syria's Asad might follow Mubarak soon, and both SA and Turkey are willing to provide support for the war. And Israel can't beat ****ing Hamas, how do you expect it to win a war with intifada in its backyard and a naval blockade?

[notyoueither]

Someone is going to blockade Israel?

[onodera]

Someone is going to blockade Israel?

If it declares war, I think so. The Americans control its southern sea route, though.

[notyoueither]

Where would they place this blockade that the Israeli Navy and Airforce would not blow to hell?

[onodera]

Where would they place this blockade that the Israeli Navy and Airforce would not blow to hell?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Navy#Present_Fleet

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Navy#Main_equipment

[Az]

You guys are nuts. Turkey going to war with Israel? wtf?

Stop rambling.