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Source: http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=234269
The Egyptian-Israeli border is no longer being enforced by the Egyptian army post-Egyptian revolution. The massive operation--an operation which I do not remember ever occurring before under Mubarak--is precisely a consequence of the slackening of the regular Egyptian army, which can no longer be trusted to do its job on a day-to-day basis.
There is simply no political will in the Egyptian military government to do what is, in Egypt, unpopular--patrol the border with Israel and, by implication, protect it from attacks and smugglers.
This is the consequence.
Barry Rubin writes (in an article, pending revision and now outdated on casualty figures):
At least six people were reported dead and at least 25 injured in a three-stage terrorist attack along Israel’s border with Egypt on Thursday, which began when terrorists opened fire at an Egged bus traveling on Road 12 near Eilat.
Several minutes later, a number of bombs went off next to an IDF patrol traveling along the border with Egypt. There were also reports of mortar fire from Egypt into Israel. The terrorists apparently then moved on to another spot and fired an anti-tank missile at another vehicle, injuring a number of passengers.
RELATED:
Egypt security sources: Bus ambush unlikely to have come from here
Barak: IDF will hunt down perpetrators of Eilat attack
Magen David Adom said that terrorists attacked a bus and a private vehicle 20 kilometers north of the site of the first incident. Paramedics said five people there were mortally wounded in that attack.
The casualties were evacuated to Yoseftal Hospital in Eilat. A number of soldiers were among the casualties
IDF soldier target, hit 7 terrorists involved in attacks
IDF soldiers targeted and hit seven terrorists involved in the attacks, according to IDF spokeswoman Avital Leibovich.
“This seems like a coordinated attack,” a senior IDF officer said. There was also speculation that there may have been more than one terror cell coordinating the attacks.
Commander of the IDF’s Edom Division Brig.-Gen. Tamir Yidayi arrived at the scene of the bus attack and set up a command post to coordinate efforts to capture the perpetrators. The IDF suspects that the terrorists infiltrated into Israel after crossing into Egypt possible from the Gaza Strip.
On Sunday, the Egyptian Military launched a massive operation to capture terrorist cells operating in the Sinai.
Due to concern that terrorists had infiltrated into Israel from Egypt, security officers in Israeli communities along the border were ordered to raise the level of alert and to tell residents to remain inside their home.
Several minutes later, a number of bombs went off next to an IDF patrol traveling along the border with Egypt. There were also reports of mortar fire from Egypt into Israel. The terrorists apparently then moved on to another spot and fired an anti-tank missile at another vehicle, injuring a number of passengers.
RELATED:
Egypt security sources: Bus ambush unlikely to have come from here
Barak: IDF will hunt down perpetrators of Eilat attack
Magen David Adom said that terrorists attacked a bus and a private vehicle 20 kilometers north of the site of the first incident. Paramedics said five people there were mortally wounded in that attack.
The casualties were evacuated to Yoseftal Hospital in Eilat. A number of soldiers were among the casualties
IDF soldier target, hit 7 terrorists involved in attacks
IDF soldiers targeted and hit seven terrorists involved in the attacks, according to IDF spokeswoman Avital Leibovich.
“This seems like a coordinated attack,” a senior IDF officer said. There was also speculation that there may have been more than one terror cell coordinating the attacks.
Commander of the IDF’s Edom Division Brig.-Gen. Tamir Yidayi arrived at the scene of the bus attack and set up a command post to coordinate efforts to capture the perpetrators. The IDF suspects that the terrorists infiltrated into Israel after crossing into Egypt possible from the Gaza Strip.
On Sunday, the Egyptian Military launched a massive operation to capture terrorist cells operating in the Sinai.
Due to concern that terrorists had infiltrated into Israel from Egypt, security officers in Israeli communities along the border were ordered to raise the level of alert and to tell residents to remain inside their home.
The Egyptian-Israeli border is no longer being enforced by the Egyptian army post-Egyptian revolution. The massive operation--an operation which I do not remember ever occurring before under Mubarak--is precisely a consequence of the slackening of the regular Egyptian army, which can no longer be trusted to do its job on a day-to-day basis.
There is simply no political will in the Egyptian military government to do what is, in Egypt, unpopular--patrol the border with Israel and, by implication, protect it from attacks and smugglers.
This is the consequence.
Barry Rubin writes (in an article, pending revision and now outdated on casualty figures):
This isn’t just another terrorist attack—it’s a major escalation, a new phase in the Arab-Israeli conflict in two ways. First, it is the bitter fruit of the U.S.-backed downfall of the government of President Husni Mubarak in Egypt. Second, it is probably the first successful al-Qaida attack on Israel. (The Palestinian Popular Resistance Committees, a Gaza-based al-Qaida affiliate is the prime suspect.)
A group of up to 20 terrorists [Zev's note--note Jpost article reports 7 terrorists dead and only 7 involved?] using vehicles fired across the Egypt-Israel border and then entered Israeli territory. Their armaments included mortars, and an RPG as well as handguns. The terrorists fired on vehicles—at least two buses and an auto–travelling on Israel’s highway 12 between Beersheva and Eilat. Soldiers engaged the terrorists in a firefight killing three. Several soldiers were wounded.
According to one of the bus drivers, the attackers were wearing Egyptian army uniforms, a detail which if true is going to be a major issue. Stolen or sold or provided by low-level sympathizers in the Egyptian army? And the site of the attack was near an Egyptian army outpost which–so far as we know now–didn’t do anything about it. Again, that detail will have to be checked by an investigation.
A mine was reportedly laid to ambush arriving Israeli troops. This is a very sophisticated and complex operations. The terrorists probably originated in the Gaza Strip and travelled through Egypt (whether they received local help there will be a major point of investigation). Israeli sources are reporting at least six Israeli fatalities and at least 15 wounded, though this has not been officially confirmed.
For more than 30 years the Egyptian government ensured peace along the desolate border between the two countries. In the post-Mubarak phase–as I warned back in February–the successor regime is not so committed to the Egypt-Israel peace. Military discipline has slackened and terrorist groups are increasingly operating in the Sinai penninsula. A recent Egyptian operation was intended to clear out terrorists, some of whom are affiliated with al-Qaida, from north Sinai.
The initial phase was marked by virtually free smuggling of arms, weapons, and money into the Gaza Strip for the Hamas regime there. The Mubarak government, though its efforts were imperfect, kept the flow of munitions limited, making it harder for Hamas to renew full-scale warfare against Israel. Now, a new conflict could break out any time as Hamas is better-armed and more confident.
But while the media will no doubt attribute this attack to al-Qaida groups–and that might be accurate–this is far from the only problem. Hamas would no doubt cooperate with cross-border attacks on Israel from Egypt, as would the powerful Muslim Brotherhood which might well provide 30 to 40 percent of the members in the next parliament.
One should also remember the old strategy of the PLO in the late 1960s and in the 1970s: create waves of attacks on Israel’s borders, provoking Israeli retaliation and mass enthusiasm for war with Israel; then push Arab states into the war for what is hoped to be a full-scale showdown.
Have no doubt. This is not just an isolated incident but the opening of a new phase.It will get worse. At a minimum, Israel will have to devote a lot more of its limited resources to guarding the Egypt-Israel border. An important question is how decisively will the Egyptian military react and how supportive of the attack will be Egyptian public opinion.
Given U.S. policy, nothing can be expected from Washington except words of dismay. The Egyptian regime will assure everyone that it is committed to the peace treaty and will take strong action. But what will happen when the military hands over power to a parliament with an Islamist-far left majority in a few months? Anyone want to hand over Israel’s West Bank border to sovereign Palestinian control?
A group of up to 20 terrorists [Zev's note--note Jpost article reports 7 terrorists dead and only 7 involved?] using vehicles fired across the Egypt-Israel border and then entered Israeli territory. Their armaments included mortars, and an RPG as well as handguns. The terrorists fired on vehicles—at least two buses and an auto–travelling on Israel’s highway 12 between Beersheva and Eilat. Soldiers engaged the terrorists in a firefight killing three. Several soldiers were wounded.
According to one of the bus drivers, the attackers were wearing Egyptian army uniforms, a detail which if true is going to be a major issue. Stolen or sold or provided by low-level sympathizers in the Egyptian army? And the site of the attack was near an Egyptian army outpost which–so far as we know now–didn’t do anything about it. Again, that detail will have to be checked by an investigation.
A mine was reportedly laid to ambush arriving Israeli troops. This is a very sophisticated and complex operations. The terrorists probably originated in the Gaza Strip and travelled through Egypt (whether they received local help there will be a major point of investigation). Israeli sources are reporting at least six Israeli fatalities and at least 15 wounded, though this has not been officially confirmed.
For more than 30 years the Egyptian government ensured peace along the desolate border between the two countries. In the post-Mubarak phase–as I warned back in February–the successor regime is not so committed to the Egypt-Israel peace. Military discipline has slackened and terrorist groups are increasingly operating in the Sinai penninsula. A recent Egyptian operation was intended to clear out terrorists, some of whom are affiliated with al-Qaida, from north Sinai.
The initial phase was marked by virtually free smuggling of arms, weapons, and money into the Gaza Strip for the Hamas regime there. The Mubarak government, though its efforts were imperfect, kept the flow of munitions limited, making it harder for Hamas to renew full-scale warfare against Israel. Now, a new conflict could break out any time as Hamas is better-armed and more confident.
But while the media will no doubt attribute this attack to al-Qaida groups–and that might be accurate–this is far from the only problem. Hamas would no doubt cooperate with cross-border attacks on Israel from Egypt, as would the powerful Muslim Brotherhood which might well provide 30 to 40 percent of the members in the next parliament.
One should also remember the old strategy of the PLO in the late 1960s and in the 1970s: create waves of attacks on Israel’s borders, provoking Israeli retaliation and mass enthusiasm for war with Israel; then push Arab states into the war for what is hoped to be a full-scale showdown.
Have no doubt. This is not just an isolated incident but the opening of a new phase.It will get worse. At a minimum, Israel will have to devote a lot more of its limited resources to guarding the Egypt-Israel border. An important question is how decisively will the Egyptian military react and how supportive of the attack will be Egyptian public opinion.
Given U.S. policy, nothing can be expected from Washington except words of dismay. The Egyptian regime will assure everyone that it is committed to the peace treaty and will take strong action. But what will happen when the military hands over power to a parliament with an Islamist-far left majority in a few months? Anyone want to hand over Israel’s West Bank border to sovereign Palestinian control?
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Do you understand the situation in Egypt at all?
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