Thread in which the world laughs at America

[Aeson]

http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2012/index2.htm

The prediction of an Obama victory with 53.4 percent of the two-party vote is conditional on the assumption that there will be strong growth between now and the election.

I'm wondering why you're going to all this effort to:

a) post predictions that counter your own
b) post prediction methods that inherently support my statement and counter your refutation

[Tupac Shakur]

a) post predictions that counter your own

Fair's assumptions about future economic growth have turned out to be grossly over-optimistic. Obama is done for unless there's an economic miracle in the next year, as I previously stated.

b) post prediction methods that inherently support my statement and counter your refutation

It does nothing of the sort. Predicting markets is impossible; predicting presidential elections is actually pretty easy.

[giblets]

Really? His comment made in July 31st, 2011 about good economic growth in 2012 has already turned out to be "grossly over-optimistic"? That was fast.

[Tupac Shakur]

Yes.

Most current economic forecasts are, however, much less optimistic than this, and with a weaker economy the message from the vote equation is different. ...

The economy is thus crucial according to the vote equation. A strong rebound results in a fairly solid Obama victory; a moderate to slightly below moderate economy results in a close election with an edge for the Republicans; and a double dip recession with, say, negative growth in 2012, results in a fairly solid Republican victory.

[KrazyHorse]

http://www.intrade.com/

This.



(current price 50.1)

[KrazyHorse]

The ben bernank is going to cost obama this election. If you are a democrat, send the ben bernank your opinion on this asap.

[Aeson]

So you post that Fair's predictions are really good, and predictions are easy... but they're bad now because they refute your prediction about the state of the economy in 1 year... but the state of the markets in one year have nothing to do with this!!!!

[Hauldren Collider]

The ben bernank is going to cost obama this election. If you are a democrat, send the ben bernank your opinion on this asap.

Can you explain this? What is Bernanke doing that is so damaging?

[Zoetstofzoetje]

What a day. 15:30 local time is 09:30 EST, which is when US markets opened.

[Tupac Shakur]

So you post that Fair's predictions are really good, and predictions are easy... but they're bad now because they refute your prediction about the state of the economy in 1 year...

You're a ****ing idiot. Fair's model works very well once the economic data from the first three quarters of the election year are in. Since we haven't reached the 2012 election year, however, Fair is using assumed data in his model, assumptions he himself admits are optimistic compared with general consensus. His prediction isn't "bad", but I find the general consensus about poor economic growth over the next year to be more plausible following this week's economic unpleasantness and the very real possibility of a double-dip recession.

Can you explain this? What is Bernanke doing that is so damaging?

He's failing to keep inflation at its (probably too low) target rate.

[KrazyHorse]

Can you explain this? What is Bernanke doing that is so damaging?

He is pursuing a tight money strategy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aggregate_supply

In any recession not caused entirely by real concerns, the SRAS is not horizontal.

In particular, when the current (expected) price level is below the previous expected price level, increases in inflation bring increases in real output. We are currently in this situation, yet the ben bernank continues to tighten money and drive DOWN inflation expectations.

[Tupac Shakur]

Poor Ben Bernank.

[Zoetstofzoetje]

The best part of it is, the guy running the S&P teleconference this morning (US time) said that in the past it has taken between 9 and 18 years to earn back AAA. And all, except Australia, managed to do so only by structural reforms. I don't see that happening any time soon, the democrats and republicans agree to disagree. Petty politics are costing them big time.

[KrazyHorse]

5 yr inflation expectations are now almost a full percentage point below their historical average.

Write the ben bernank today and tell him that he is the greatest force of evil in the world.

[Aeson]

Fair's model works very well once the economic data from the first three quarters of the election year are in.

So you're predicting the economic data from the first three quarters of next year. This has nothing to do with predicting markets though!

His prediction isn't "bad", but I find the general consensus about poor economic growth over the next year to be more plausible following this week's economic unpleasantness and the very real possibility of a double-dip recession.

And nothing else unforeseen ... no changes ... can possibly happen from here on out. WINNAR!!!!