The U.S. Economy and Jobs Thread, or...

[Tupac Shakur]

3 used to be much worse in the past and we had sharper recoveries.

I disagree. Skills mismatch is likely worse now than it was in the past.

[Kuciwalker]

I was addressing the other two components.

Also note that skills mismatch is endogenous (unemployment -> loss of job skills/less labor market mobility is my channel) so it still ties back to 1.

[Tupac Shakur]

KH asked for the reason behind the weak recovery, not the recession itself.

[Kuciwalker]

1 -> 3 is a vicious cycle. Vicious cycles typically become virtuous if you push them in the other direction. So we can fix 3 at least in part by fixing 1.

[Ben Kenobi]

What is the reason for the almost unprecedented ongoing weakness in the US economy?

Well if inflation were measured as it was in the days of Carter, it would be almost as high today.

So my bet is 3. Long term demographics are going to lower demand for every quarter from here on out in the US. This actually is unprecedented.

[giblets]

If people could just ignore Ben's stupidity for once I think that would be fantastic.

[Pax]

Ways to recovery:
Educate the population (workforce) in growth industries.
Finance Science(discoveries) to promote growth industries.
Relocate the population(workforce) to where the jobs are.
I am not against giving tax cuts to companies that bring in jobs. In that manner we can get our tax money from the previously unemployed.
Become more competitive with china. I've read recent articles that show a lot of companies are coming back to the US. because the total cost of making there product in the US is now lower than if they made it overseas and the fact that our labor pool is more educated than most countries. (If you want to know which articles then do a search for them).

[pchang]

I think the main problem is 3. We are just getting better and better at producing more and more with less and less labor. Perhaps our productivity has risen to the point where we as a society should consider a 32 hour work week (or even less).

[Kuciwalker]

I think the main problem is 3. We are just getting better and better at producing more and more with less and less labor.

This has been going on for multiple centuries. What could possibly lead you to believe that now we've finally run out of new things for people to do? Especially when just a few years ago we were productively employing so many of them?

[pchang]

The rate has been increasing. I believe we have passed the inflection point in the exponential curve.

[Traianvs]

I think the main problem is 3. We are just getting better and better at producing more and more with less and less labor.

This has been going on for multiple centuries. What could possibly lead you to believe that now we've finally run out of new things for people to do? Especially when just a few years ago we were productively employing so many of them?

Well there is a limit to increasing labour productivity.

[Kuciwalker]

The rate has been increasing. I believe we have passed the inflection point in the exponential curve.

On what evidence?

[pchang]

The crappy recovery...................

[DanS]

As Buffett said in an interview today with Bloomberg, we have a huge inventory overhang on housing. Once that inventory is absorbed, a very large number of people are rehired and the recovery looks more garden variety.

[DaShi]

Letting the foxes back in the henhouse.