WW2 What If?

[Heraclitus]

The German people also knew he was a virulent anti-Semite, and, hell, he wrote Mein Kampf way back in the 1920s.

You mean they did not read 'Mein Kampf' or listen to his speeches. He did what he said he would do.

Thought to be fair a politician that actually carries out what he promises is a unnatural and unexpected thing.

[David Floyd]

You mean they did not read 'Mein Kampf' or listen to his speeches. He did what he said he would do.

Spot on. Anyone who said they were surprised by Hitler was either lying or naive.

[Lonestar]

You have got me here, I can't tell Historians worth their credentials to those who are unworthy of their credentials. They all think they are right and will not confess that they are not worth their credentials, but believe their opposing Historian is wrong.

But I just spent the last hour or two on how Germany could have invaded England.

The Luftwaffe was far superior to the British RAF at that time, and could have provided cover. This would change later in the war. In my view, admittedly an after the facts view, that taking England is the only chance Germany had to win the war. Of course, declaring war on the USA was another real bad mistake Hitler made.

England most likely had the best Navy in the world at that time. Germany needs to take England to win the war.

My guess is that British Navy will not be very effective in the English Channel. Particularly with the Luftwaffe bombing any ships entering therein (though they did not have the Japanese Torpedo's) and German canons firing from the shore. Since you know more about this than I do, why could they not cross the English Channel and float troops and even Panzer tanks and other equipment undercover of the Luftwaffe. Something similar to our invasion of Normandy in 1944. If done right on the heels of 'the miracle at Dunkirk', before these troops regroup. What is needed would be the appropriate transport boats suitable for crossing the English Channel, some PT boats would be handy.

The Germans didn't have a chance in hell of invading the UK. Would you like to guess how many ships the Germans sank during the evacuation at Dunkirk? And would you care to guess of that many, how many of those were literally standing still?

You talk about trying to "float the equipment over under the cover of the luftwaffe". In fact, the luftwaffe would be almost worthless, and perhaps even a hinderence during the invasion. The RN would aggressively interdict the invasion force(easy, as the Kriegsmarine would never be able to keep the channel clear of RN vessels), which means the Luftwaffe would have to attack RN vessels while avoiding hitting their own...this is harder than it sounds, especially wiht 1940s technology.

But such should have to be prepared before the war starts. If Germany can not take England, then they can not win the war.

They can't.

Anyway, please explain why what I suggest can not work? I fully expect you will, my knowledge of war tactics and supply lines are very limited.

For one thing, you already got some historical facts wrong.

The myth that Hitler didn't want to antagonize the British is pretty thoroughly discredited by Brian Bond in his book Britain, France and Belgium 1939-1940. pages 104 - 105. "Few historians now accept the view that Hitler's behaviour was influenced by the desire to let the British off lightly in hope that they would then accept a compromise peace. True, in his political testament dated 26 February 1945 Hitler lamented that Churchill was "quite unable to appreciate the sporting spirit" in which he had refrained from annihilating the BEF at Dunkirk, but this hardly squares with the contemporary record. Directive No. 13, issued by the Supreme Headquarters on 24 May called specifically for the annihaltion of the French, English and Belgian forces in the pocket, while the Luftwaffe was ordered to prevent the escape of the English forces across the channel."

The reason why the Germans didn't destroy the BEF was because they weren't able to, not because of any political decision on the part of Germany.

There's also the myth that the British Army was destitute after the Dunkirk evacuation. In fact (if I may quote liberally from elsewhere) the day after the Dunkirk evacuation was completed, the British army in the UK had, 52 Armoured cars 395 light tanks, 72 infantry tanks (mainly Matilda MkII) 33 cruiser tanks. 420 Field guns and 163 Medium and heavy guns. In June and July, they received 785,000 .30 cal. Lee-Enfield rifles, 130 million rounds .30 ammo, 87,000 machine guns (various types), 6 million rounds .30 cal. machine gun ammo, 900 75mm field guns, 1,075,000 75mm shells, 308 3" Stokes mortars, 97,680 Stokes mortar shells, 25,000 BAR's, 21,000 revolvers and 1,000,000 revolver cartridges A lot of that came from the USA.

The equipment situation post-Dunkirk.

What it basically shows is that there were 27 divisions in the UK and, after Dunkirk there was enough equipment to fully arm 12 - 14 of those divisions with the rest being light infantry standard (rifles only). By late August, 24 of the 27 divisions were fully equipped. The Army also had 274 infantry tanks (Matilda IIs) 322 cruiser tanks and 659 light tanks.

Even if the Germans were to magically walk across the channel without being torn to shreds by the RN, there is a very stout force in the British Isles waiting for them.

Grant that Stalin was every bit the mad man that Hitler was, probably more so if that is possible. Germany had an army move into Poland and remain there. Stalin took the Oil fields as part of their treaty, which Hitler made to prevent a two front war. But Stalin trusted no one, and he certainly did not trust Hitler whose invading army of Poland remained in Poland and were being built up at their border. No way He was going to go to War with Japan. Hitler was hoping that Japan would attack the USSR from the east, and was fairly certain this would be the case when he did declare war on Russia. Hitler's armies lost to the Russian winter, and because Hitler had his way rather than let what his most able generals wanted to do. As the war progressed, Hitler's mind was disintegrating and his commands became more and more absurd.



It is difficult as to guess what would have been a war winner. The fact remained that there were Panzer divisions available at that time and location, they and the German army advance was halted by the German command, either Hitler who was present, or a General or two. The Luftwaffe was present and used and was besting the RAF, but most days of the evacuation the weather worked against using the Luftwaffe. Hitler did have a strategy of winning the Brits over to his Aryan ideology and believed that they were equal to Germans as far as race goes, or perhaps, on the other hand, the generals felt that easing up on the evacuating BEF forces may lead to a treaty with Great Britain and give themselves time to re-group, or perhaps it was simply Divine providence, that the axis powers should lose the war, and the State of Israel be brought into existence as their diaspora comes to an end.

Again, incorrect. The Germans did not stop at Dunkirk because of politics, but rather because they were at the end of their tether, still facing a large French army in the field, and bad weather was preventing the luftwaffe from sortieing over Dunkirk in large numbers. This a is a persistant myth that seems to be taught in German schools(Judging from the number of germans on the Interwebs who say that that is what they were told).

See above for my best 'uninformed' guess. I know Germany had a poor Navy. The Bismarck was too late too little. But I thought they might be able to cross the English Channel, and keep the supply lines open with their airplanes and a small effective navy just for this purpose, if they had forethought to prepare for this one scenario. I realize Germany did not have the means to develop a full strong Navy. But it was not a problem for the USA.

The Germans never had the means to cross the Channel unmolested. If the years leading up to the war were preceded by the Germans investing in more of a navy, then that means the British would be expanding their navy as well, and we would see a repeat of the pre-WW1 naval race(which the UK would win).

[David Floyd]

Also, comparing the Anglo-American invasion of Normandy to a proposed German invasion at Dover is simply ludicrous. The Allies enjoyed so many advantages militarily and logistically at Normandy that any proposed comparison is ludicrous - and EVEN STILL, the issue was in doubt! With over 5000 ships, thousands of aircraft, hundreds of thousands of troops, complete command of the sea, complete command of the air (the Luftwaffe only managed around 320 sorties over Normandy) the invasion of Normandy was not a foregone conclusion! How can anyone compare that effort to a proposed Sealion?

[Lonestar]

Also, comparing the Anglo-American invasion of Normandy to a proposed German invasion at Dover is simply ludicrous. The Allies enjoyed so many advantages militarily and logistically at Normandy that any proposed comparison is ludicrous - and EVEN STILL, the issue was in doubt! With over 5000 ships, thousands of aircraft, hundreds of thousands of troops, complete command of the sea, complete command of the air (the Luftwaffe only managed around 320 sorties over Normandy) the invasion of Normandy was not a foregone conclusion! How can anyone compare that effort to a proposed Sealion?

He thinks that the Channel can be treated as a giant river to be crossed, ignoring the material superiority of the RN and the decrepitude of the Kriegsmarine. He then assumes that the Briths Army in the UK won't be able to slaughter the Wehrmacht on the beaches.

[David Floyd]

Also, even after Dunkirk, the British sent the 2nd BEF to France, consisting of the 1st Armored Division, 52nd Lowland Division, the Beaumont Division, and 1st Canadian Division to France, which was ultimately evacuated along with over 100,000 service troops in Operation Ariel. This indicates that the UK was not, in fact, denuded of trained troops. Even during Dunkirk, senior officers such as Alan Brooke, Monty, and Alex were ordered out early to ensure the trained commanders survived.

[David Floyd]

He thinks that the Channel can be treated as a giant river to be crossed, ignoring the material superiority of the RN and the decrepitude of the Kriegsmarine. He then assumes that the Briths Army in the UK won't be able to slaughter the Wehrmacht on the beaches.

To be fair, it isn't his fault. It's a common misconception. The FACT is that the BBs of the British Home Fleet wouldn't have even been required to defeat the invasion escapes most people.

[Lonestar]

To be fair, it isn't his fault. It's a common misconception. The FACT is that the BBs of the British Home Fleet wouldn't have even been required to defeat the invasion escapes most people.

Well, he also assumes that the BEF at Dunkirk was spared because of a political decision, not a military one. The Germans were at the end of their supply line, the position is ideal for defense(Gort didn't just throw a dart at a map and say "we'll make the stand here"), the pocket is thick with arty(in 1940 lighter AA guns can be used to rip any armored vehicle in the Wehrmacht to shreds), there's naval gunfire support offshore, and the only road in for supply is the bridge at Poperinge. And by the way, even as the German attack advances the evacuation is occuring anyway. In truth, a serious German attack on the Dunkirk pocket might bleed out the Wehrmacht enough that the Battle for France grinds to a halt, with only a modest increase in British casualties.

Too many German wankers think that "The German Army fights"="The German Army wins".

[David Floyd]

But again, most people who casually study WW2 think that the Germans could have easily overrun the BEF and stopped the evacuation. It's bull****, but that isn't the point. Seriously, we should start a "Myths of WW2" thread, because I can't even count how many have cropped up on this thread - everything from German atomic weapons, to Sealion, to destroying the BEF. It's ridiculous that people are so ill-informed about what is possibly the most important series of events in the 20th Century.

[Egbert]

Seriously, we should start a "Myths of WW2" thread,

If you were to start such a thread, I for one would be interested in reading it.

[Lonestar]

If you were to start such a thread, I for one would be interested in reading it.

Here is a pretty good page about Operation Sea Lion.

Some money quotes:

However, the Luftwaffe of the period had a pathetic record against warships. 39 RN destroyers took part in the Dunkirk evacuation. This operation required manoeuvring in a small harbour, with periods stationary while embarking troops. The Luftwaffe had command of the air for long periods. In these ideal conditions, the Luftwaffe managed to put out of commission a grand total of 4 destroyers. 4 out of 39 does not bode well for the Luftwaffe's chances.

Meanwhile, the Kriegsmarine were displaying a similar level of understanding of the needs of the Wehrmacht. It stated that the time between first landing and the second wave of reinforcements and supplies would be 8-10 days. Thus 9 Wehrmacht divisions, without any heavy equipment or resupply, would be expected to hold out against the 28 divisions in Britain, which had unlimited access to supplies and the available equipment.

To get the first wave across, the Germans gathered barges and tugs, totally disrupting their trade in the Baltic. Eventually, 170 cargo ships, 1277 barges, and 471 tugs were gathered. These were, inevitably, bombed by the RAF (about 10% being sunk before they dispersed again). The barges were mainly those designed for use on the Rhine, with a shallow freeboard. They sink in anything above Sea State 2. The wash from a fast-moving destroyer would swamp and sink the barge. (Correct: the RN could sink the lot without firing a shot).

[David Floyd]

None of that even addresses the point of the intervention of the British Home Fleet. Even a single R-class battleship in the Channel would have disrupted the entire "invasion", given the fact that JU-87s didn't even have the appropriate munitions to sink it! And good luck getting U-boats into the Channel due to minefields.

[Lonestar]

None of that even addresses the point of the intervention of the British Home Fleet. Even a single R-class battleship in the Channel would have disrupted the entire "invasion", given the fact that JU-87s didn't even have the appropriate munitions to sink it! And good luck getting U-boats into the Channel due to minefields.

As you mentioned, a BB wasn't even needed(except perhaps operating as a "distant screen" to prevent major Kriegsmarine units from entering the Channel. The major units of the Kriegsmarine at the time were notoriously turning their tail and running, even when they out numbered and outgunned the opposing RN capital ship), and RN DDs and CLs could literally just gun the engines and weave inbetween the invasion barges, swamping the lot.

Destroying 9 German divisions with minor losses on the Brtiish side would be a disaster for German morale.

[David Floyd]

Oh, absolutely. Imagine the British having someone like Erich von Manstein in a POW camp in 1940. Not saying it would have necessarily have been him, but it certainly would have been numerous German officers of his stature. Kurt Student as a certainty.

[Lonestar]

Oh, absolutely. Imagine the British having someone like Erich von Manstein in a POW camp in 1940. Not saying it would have necessarily have been him, but it certainly would have been numerous German officers of his stature. Kurt Student as a certainty.

I was thinking more in terms of "The Germans are such clowns that we destroyed 9 divisions, killing many of them simply with the wash of passing warships." The propaganda from that would suck a lot of wind out of the German sails, and might convince, well, everybody that the campaign in Northern France was something of a fluke and that the Germans are a buncha idiots who probably won't be able to win this.

I'd also add that such a disaster would remove the luster that that jumped-up corporal had gotten after the Fall of France, and a more sane set of General Officers may consider putting him into early retirement.