WW2 What If?

[David Floyd]

Adapted from a discussion on a different forum (www.alternatehistory.com, if interested)...

Let's say that for whatever reason (not important at this point), a SuperAxis of Germany, Italy, Japan, and the Soviet Union comes together. Perhaps this is due to an aggressive Britain and France bombing Baku and invading Norway/Sweden, as was discussed, but that's flexible.

What happens? Can the Allies still win? When does the US join the war? Is the SuperAxis able to conquer Africa, the Middle East, and India?

[Riesstiu IV]

The problem with these what if histories is anyone can pull anything out of their ass and try to make it sound like a legit alternative, no matter how stupid. They scenarios usually ignore the potential for diplomacy or unforeseen actions or events. Even if you ignore the ideological conflicts between the U.S.S.R. and the Third Reich and overlook Hitler's motivation for lebensraum and belief that a war with Stalin was inevitable, you are left with an uneasy alliance that could easily be exploited by playing on the fears of each leader.

Historically, lopsided super-alliances have rarely lasted once a threat has been reduced or passed and new conflicts of interests emerge. After World War II, the Ango-American alliance with the Soviet Union came to and end and during the Cold War, the alliance between two ideologically similar powers, China and the Soviet Union collapsed. An alliance between Japan, the U.S.S.R. and Third Reich alliance would never last.

[VetLegion]

What Riesstiu IV said.

I always thought the most plausible scenarios for German victory were those in
which USA goes isolationist. If it doesn't, tough luck for the Jerry.

[Al B. Sure!]

Yeah why would Stalin and Hitler get along?

[Lonestar]

The UK would still be able to hang on(geography argues for it), and in any event I think we just see AWPD-1 being implemented by the US.

[Whoha]

Adapted from a discussion on a different forum (www.alternatehistory.com, if interested)...

Let's say that for whatever reason (not important at this point), a SuperAxis of Germany, Italy, Japan, and the Soviet Union comes together. Perhaps this is due to an aggressive Britain and France bombing Baku and invading Norway/Sweden, as was discussed, but that's flexible.

What happens? Can the Allies still win? When does the US join the war? Is the SuperAxis able to conquer Africa, the Middle East, and India?

America still would have embargoed Japanese oil over China, Japan still would have attacked pearl harbor at the same date. Likewise, America and Great Britain still have strategic bombers, naval might, and industrial production that the rest of the world couldn't match. A great deal of American war materiel went to the Soviets to assist them even as early as 1940, and it is likely that our war materiel would have gone instead eventually to China instead of Russia in this scenario.

As others have noted, Russia vs Germany was going to happen though, no way to avoid it for either of them. But if Hitler could have restrained his desire to exterminate the slavs maybe Russia would have been in the axis camp mid way through WW2.

[David Floyd]

A plausible point of divergence for this would be if the British bombed the Soviet Baku oil fields in response to the Soviet invasion of Finland. This move was seriously considered at the time. If you can also find a way to assassinate Hitler, you have a confluence of events that almost guarantees an at least temporary Soviet-Nazi alliance - and hell, up until the day of Operation Barbarossa, the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was in full effect. German spearheads actually rolled past trains headed into Germany with strategic resources during the invasion.

A great deal of American war materiel went to the Soviets to assist them even as early as 1940,

Lonestar,

The UK would still be able to hang on(geography argues for it), and in any event I think we just see AWPD-1 being implemented by the US.

Yep, I agree. It's worth pointing out that the US out-produced Germany and the Soviet Union combined during WW2 historically, and was gearing DOWN production by late 1944. It's also worth pointing out that the US had an atomic monopoly and a production line generating an atomic bomb every 10 days by mid 1945. It's also worth pointing out that with weaponized anthrax, Great Britain could have destroyed Nazi Germany virtually at any point they chose.

I don't think that any Axis Superalliance stands a snowball's chance in hell of defeating the US/Britain/Commonwealth - I'm more interested in the people who think that they COULD do so, and why they think so. I'm sure there's a few lurking around.
Eh? You might want to check your sources on that. The Soviets weren't even in the war against Germany until 1941.

[Whoha]

Eh? You might want to check your sources on that. The Soviets weren't even in the war against Germany until 1941.

Hmm yea I was making an assumption about this, and or misread the date:

With the first snows of winter soldiers discovered that German boots were wholly unsuited for subzero weather; a metal plate in the toe became an invitation to frostbite. (The Red Army had been supplied with ten million pairs of new felt-insulated boots made in American factories to Soviet specifications.) And so on, and on. By the middle of the winter the Germans were besieging Leningrad and approaching Stalingrad and had reached the outskirts of Moscow -- and there they stayed.

http://leesandlin.com/articles/LosingTheWar.txt

[Lonestar]

Lonestar,



Yep, I agree. It's worth pointing out that the US out-produced Germany and the Soviet Union combined during WW2 historically, and was gearing DOWN production by late 1944. It's also worth pointing out that the US had an atomic monopoly and a production line generating an atomic bomb every 10 days by mid 1945. It's also worth pointing out that with weaponized anthrax, Great Britain could have destroyed Nazi Germany virtually at any point they chose.

I don't think that any Axis Superalliance stands a snowball's chance in hell of defeating the US/Britain/Commonwealth - I'm more interested in the people who think that they COULD do so, and why they think so. I'm sure there's a few lurking around.

I'd argue that the top 3 things that defeated Germany in WW2 were (1)The UK hanging on (2)The USSR destroying the German Army and (3)The US Industrial output.

Two of those three still happen, and no matter what Germany, Italy and the Soviet Union want they'll never be able to force a UK defeat. They'll certainly never be able to inflict sufficient damage to the Continental US. This means we're back at round the clock strategic bombing, possibly with all of Germany going up in atomic smoke. It's anyone's guess as to what the USSR would do after that, but the point is a Allied Victory is not only still possible, but very probable.

(If nothing else, I envision a situation where Uncle Joe decides that now is a good time to cut his loses).

[Egbert]

If the USSR had allied with Germany and Japan would Japan still have bombed Pearl Harbor? I don't know enough about the Japanese decision to take a stab at answering that question.

If the Japanese didn't bomb Pearl Harbor would the isolationist USA have joined the war? Maybe, maybe not?

If the USA didn't join then it really gets interesting. The Royal Navy and the RAF would keep the UK safe but parts of the empire would be exposed. Japan and China occupying a rebellious China. Could be one hell of a fight in British India with all that Indian manpower and long supply lines for Japan and the USSR. Australia and New Zealand would be in very grave danger.

I imagine the UK and Dominions would eventually use up all their credit with the USA. I can't imagine the USA helping the Axis but it does seem likely they would have given financial and material aid to the British Empire (and probably gone ballistic if the Axis invaded Canada). The UK, Australia and New Zealand would have had to eventually sue for peace. I guess they would lose some territory, Hong Kong and maybe Burma? I would predict a loss on points for the Empire but it would remain intact.

On that basis, if the USA joined in it would be but a matter of time until victory was secured. Assuming the combined research of Germany and Russia didn't get lucky enough to get nukes first.

[Lonestar]

If the USSR had allied with Germany and Japan would Japan still have bombed Pearl Harbor? I don't know enough about the Japanese decision to take a stab at answering that question.

If the Japanese didn't bomb Pearl Harbor would the isolationist USA have joined the war? Maybe, maybe not?

Probably. The USN was already in a shooting war with the Kriegsmarine in the North Atlantic(complete with warships being sunk). We were going to go to war with Germany no matter what.

On that basis, if the USA joined in it would be but a matter of time until victory was secured. Assuming the combined research of Germany and Russia didn't get lucky enough to get nukes first.

Hold on there buddy. You seriously think Uncle Joe(who has the inside track on the Manhatten Project) is going to share research with Germany? Germany couldn't do it themselves, and the USSR wasn't able to replicate an tomic omb until the end of the decade.

[Egbert]

Hold on there buddy. You seriously think Uncle Joe(who has the inside track on the Manhatten Project) is going to share research with Germany? Germany couldn't do it themselves, and the USSR wasn't able to replicate an tomic omb until the end of the decade.

THat one was quite speculative however IF Uncle Joe and Adolph were deperate enough they just might share. (In such a scenario Uncle Joe would get nothing from the Manhattan Project except maybe some mushroom clouds over Moscow). I think they would both have to be feeling desperate. If they were facing the combined force of USA and the BE then I am presuming they would eventually be reduced to desperate circumstances. It is merely a possibility that I am throwing into the ring. (Yeah, they would need a lucky break to get nukes first but that is possible).

[Lonestar]

THat one was quite speculative however IF Uncle Joe and Adolph were deperate enough they just might share. (In such a scenario Uncle Joe would get nothing from the Manhattan Project except maybe some mushroom clouds over Moscow). I think they would both have to be feeling desperate. If they were facing the combined force of USA and the BE then I am presuming they would eventually be reduced to desperate circumstances. It is merely a possibility that I am throwing into the ring. (Yeah, they would need a lucky break to get nukes first but that is possible).

The UK and USA had a closer relationship than Germany and the USSR are likely to have, and that didn't stop the US from cutting the UK out of the Manhattan project, even after they provided "seed" information. I can't see Uncle Joe not doing the same.

[David Floyd]

If the USSR had allied with Germany and Japan would Japan still have bombed Pearl Harbor? I don't know enough about the Japanese decision to take a stab at answering that question.

If the Japanese didn't bomb Pearl Harbor would the isolationist USA have joined the war? Maybe, maybe not?

Pearl Harbor wasn't an end unto itself. The attack was a means to prevent the US from interfering in Japan's conquest of Malaysia and the Dutch East Indies, for the rubber and oil resources. Japan cannot allow the US to retain a strong "fleet in being" with a well-supplied base (the Philippines) astride their SLOC (sea line of communication). Doing so allows the US to threaten to cut off Japan's conquests at any time they choose. Japan virtually has to attack the US - they can't attack Britain/France/Holland without involving the US, for that very reason.

If the USA didn't join then it really gets interesting. The Royal Navy and the RAF would keep the UK safe but parts of the empire would be exposed. Japan and China occupying a rebellious China. Could be one hell of a fight in British India with all that Indian manpower and long supply lines for Japan and the USSR. Australia and New Zealand would be in very grave danger.

India and Australia were beyond the logistical capabilities of the Japanese. The Japanese could probably LAND troops in Australia, but they could never adequately supply or reinforce them. Japan suffered from a chronic shortage of sealift throughout the war, and almost everything they did was on a shoestring.

I imagine the UK and Dominions would eventually use up all their credit with the USA. I can't imagine the USA helping the Axis but it does seem likely they would have given financial and material aid to the British Empire (and probably gone ballistic if the Axis invaded Canada). The UK, Australia and New Zealand would have had to eventually sue for peace. I guess they would lose some territory, Hong Kong and maybe Burma? I would predict a loss on points for the Empire but it would remain intact.

First of all, how does the Axis invade Canada when it hasn't even been established that they can invade Britain (they can't, at least not without a massive naval buildup that takes them past the 1940s). And if it looks likely that Britain is actually going to lose the war, they have the ultimate ability to wipe out Germany using weaponized anthrax, to which Germany has no response (the Germans had small stocks of chemical/biological weapons, but nothing like anthrax, and no reliable delivery system).

On that basis, if the USA joined in it would be but a matter of time until victory was secured. Assuming the combined research of Germany and Russia didn't get lucky enough to get nukes first.

Well, the Soviets didn't get them historically until 1949, relying heavily on stolen data from Los Alamos. The Germans never even came close, and in fact decided atomic weapons were impossible. Even if you push the Soviet weapon forward to 1947 (and I have no clue how you can do that, but fine), that's still far, far too late.

[Al B. Sure!]

Dave, where do you get the Germans had small stocks of chemical weapons? I can look it up now but I remember in another discussion here a few months back, I found information on Italian usage of gas during the war with Ethiopia and it compared the national stockpiles of gas between the Axis and Allied countries and Germany had a crapload.