CanPol: May(?) 2011 Election. Vote today!

[notyoueither]

The NDP has the potential to draw in traditional Lib anglophone and immigrant vote in Montreal. Toss in the soft nationalists deserting the Bloc and they could shatter Liberal AND Bloc fortresses alike in Montreal.

It would be extraordinary if they take seats the Liberals have held forever (or a very, very long time). Seats the Liberals held when opponents took 50% of the vote in the province.

I'll have my popcorn out on election night.

[Fake Boris]

NDP breaking up ethnic vote

[Uncle Sparky]

So anyway, as I said a few days ago, Elections Canada has confirmed a 35% increase in advanced polls. From my info, some safe NDP seats such as Winnipeg Centre had a lower than usual advance turn out. This would suggest the seat is safe. Also in Manitoba, Winnipeg South, currently Con, almost ran out of ballots at to polling places. This suggests change - history would suggest Lib, but the provincial legislative seats encompassing the riding are NDP.
I stand by my prediction of a razor thin Con majority. Its funny but speculative polls from a few weeks ago suggested that most Canadians were ok with a 'coalition' government as long as Layton was PM - the majority will get their way this time.

[KrazyHorse]

plz check your use of "majority". kthxbye

[Uncle Sparky]

I stand by my prediction of a razor thin Con majority

Sorry - not a majority government, but more seats than the next party. I think I said they'd get about 120 seats, and that still seems the most likely scenario.

...the majority will get their way this time.

This time I meant the majority of Canadian voters. Over 60% of the voters in the last 2 elections have voted for parties other than the Cons.

At the beginning of the campaign, key Libs & NDP both said, both privately and publicly, the Lib election promises looked a lot like the NDPs. This seemed odd because Iggy is right-of-centre. He tried to sell the platform, and failed, resorting to urging Canadians to 'rise up' (one of the more bizzare moments I recall from any Canadian campaign).

Because of similar policies, Canada's left of centre voters have a real choice - which leader do they want? They seem to be moving to Layton & the NDP.

[KrazyHorse]

So you predict a razor-thin minority government?

Who comes in 2nd in your scenario?

[Uncle Sparky]

Personally, I think it would be great fun to have a 3 way tie. But then I'm an election junkie. As of today, I don't know - last week I'd have said Lib - ask me next Tuesday.

[Asher]

[notyoueither]

The trends are all looking good for Layton.

http://www.thehilltimes.ca/dailyupdate/view/grits_set_to_lose_longheld_bastions_in_montreal_and_toronto_to_ndp_dramatic_new_forum_research_survey_says_04-27-2011

Grits set to lose long-held bastions in Montreal and Toronto to NDP, says dramatic new Forum Research poll

The Liberals are set to lose long-held bastions in Montreal and Toronto as the NDP closes in on becoming the official opposition with only four full days of campaigning, according to the results of a Forum Research poll conducted in collaboration with The Hill Times.

By TIM NAUMETZ
Published April 27, 2011 12:13 PM

PARLIAMENT HILL—Liberals are set to lose long-held bastions in Montreal and Toronto as the NDP closes dramatically in on becoming the official opposition with only four full days of campaigning before the election on Monday, according to the results of a Forum Research poll conducted in collaboration with The Hill Times.

The survey conducted Tuesday night puts the NDP firmly in second place, barely behind the Conservative Party, as its support has continued to climb in regions across Canada following the stunning wave the party and its leader, Jack Layton, have generated in Quebec.

The poll of voting intentions of 3,150 Canadians gave the NDP 31 per cent support nationally, compared to 34 per cent for the Conservatives, who dropped by two percentage polls from the last Forum Research poll on April 21. Support for the Liberal Party, which may have hit rock bottom in the upheaval of the past two weeks, remained relatively unchanged, down to 22 per cent from 23 per cent on April 21.

With so little time left, and voter intentions firming up, it appears Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who has urged voters to give him a stable majority government from the outset on March 26, will in the end have his minority government reduced by as many as 10 seats, to a possible 137, Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff told The Hill Times.

Despite musing about the possibility of an NDP government, notably on the new Sun News Network, Mr. Bozinoff said though Mr. Layton and his NDP appear most likely to form the official opposition, they would need to convert seats in unlikely areas of the country to displace the governing party.

Mr. Bozinoff’s poll and analysis based on past results in key ridings would give the Conservatives 137 seats, the NDP 108 seats if an election were held today, 60 for the Liberals and only three seats for the Bloc Québécois. If these results hold, the seat projections would have a range of plus or minus 10 seats for each party, Mr. Bozinoff emphasized.

“Right now there’s a 30-seat difference, so the NDP would need 15 more seats to switch [with the Conservatives], and those seats are not going to be in Quebec, Quebec is done, I think pretty much,” he said. “So it’s 15 seats the NDP are going to be looking for in the rest of the country outside Quebec, I think that’s going to be tough for them to find those seats, because we’re really down to the hard core seats now.”

If the voting intentions hold, the Liberals stand to lose at least four of the party’s Montreal fortresses to the NDP, including Westmount-Ville Marie, where former astronaut Marc Garneau is battling for re-election; Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine, held by prominent Liberal Marlene Jennings since 1997; and perhaps even Papineau, another longtime Liberal seat where Justin Trudeau, son of Liberal icon Pierre Trudeau, who is struggling to keep a Commons seat. LaSalle-Émard, once held by former prime minister Paul Martin, is also set to fall to the NDP, Mr. Bozinoff told The Hill Times. Incumbent Liberal Lise Zarac is fighting to win the riding.

Several Quebec Conservative seats and most Bloc Québécois seats are also set to be swamped by the surprising NDP wave in Quebec

An analysis based on the poll findings and voter intentions in key ridings across Canada show Mr. Harper and his Conservatives are set to lose three seats to the NDP in the Québec City region— Beauport-Limoilou, where Syvie Boucher, a prominent Tory, is fighting for re-election; Charlesbourg-Haute-Sainte-Charles, won by Daniel Petit, another Parliamentary secretary with the Harper government; and Pontiac, the West Quebec riding where one of Mr. Harper’s most high-profile MPs, Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon, is battling to win re-election. The Liberals are set to lose their long-held bastion of Hull-Aylmer across the Ottawa River from Parliament, held by Marcel Proulx, and Gatineau, where former Liberal MP Françoise Boisvin is set to oust Bloc Québécois incumbent Richard Nadeau.

In Ontario, although the NDP is set to win at least two Liberal seats in Toronto, Beaches-East York, held by Maria Minna, and Parkdale-High Park, where Liberal star Gerard Kenney is set to lose the riding back to New Democrat Peggy Nash, it is the Conservatives who are poised to gain from the Liberal implosion in the province. The poll results show the Conservatives are closing in on Eglinton-Lawrence, held by prominent Liberal Joe Volpe, a former leadership contender, since 1988, and at least four ridings from Liberals in the Greater Toronto Area.

In the Atlantic, Geoff Regan, the son of former Nova Scotia Liberal premier Gerald Regan, faces the prospect of losing his re-election bid in Halifax-West to the NDP. The NDP also stands to win South Shore-St. Margaret’s from Conservative Gerald Keddy and in Newfoundland and Labrador’s St. John’s-Mount Pearl, barely won by Liberal Siobhan Coady in 2008.

“With the NDP continuing to gain steam from coast to coast, and both the Liberal and Conservative parties’ support lagging, the key question now is whether the NDP have the ground troops to deliver their vote on election day,” Mr. Bozinoff said.

The results are based on an interactive voice response survey of 3,150 randomly-selected eligible voters across the country, on April 26, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 per cent 19 times out of 20.

The poll found the Conservatives have lost ground to the NDP in the Atlantic region, Ontario, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan.

Among voters aged 18 to 24, the NDP is most popular at 33 per cent, followed by the Conservatives at 20 per cent and the Liberals at 18 per cent. It is possibly a crucial finding because of the dramatic rise in turnout for the advance polls conducted on the weekend, up 34 per cent from advance polls for the 2008 election. Support for the NDP is also highest among those aged 25 to 34, at 37 per cent. Conservative support peaks among voters aged 65 and over, at 45 per cent.

The poll found Mr. Layton’s leadership rating as a prospective Prime Minister has risen. Thirty-three per cent of the respondents said Mr. Layton would make the best Prime Minister, compared to 32 per cent for Mr. Harper and only 14 per cent for Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff.

tnaumetz@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times

I've read that Angus Reid was the closest to actual results last election. Their numbers from the past three polls are
Apr 22-24 Con 35 Lib 22 NDP 30
Apr 15-16 Con 36 Lib 25 NDP 25
Apr 4-5 Con 38 Lib 27 NDP 21


I wonder how significant the canddates issue and lack of organisation will be.

[Fake Boris]

Not such a big deal but yet another example that we can't expect fair reporting of separatists.

Gérald Larose said today: "If Layton doesn't pronounce himself on what constitutional offer he has for Quebec before the election, he'll be a quack, and maybe even a crook."

La Presse promptly titled: 'Larose calls Layton a quack and a crook'

[chequita guevara]

Disagree with Kuciwalker 100%.

Kuciwalker > you

[Fake Boris]

Chegitz sighting!

[notyoueither]

News of the advance of the Socialist hordes must have reached Florida.

[notyoueither]

The Liberals are dipping dangerously low. In old era politics (three party) the worst they've done going back forever is 28% in 1984. They took just 40 seats.

The worst case ever for a national party was of course 1993, when Campbell's PCs had 16% and the famous two seats.

At a certain point they will be left with the mile wide and an inch deep sort of support that leads to a wipe out. They have to hope that their traditional supporters in Montreal, the GTA, and parts of the Maritimes stick with them and do not get discouraged from going to the polls.

[Fake Boris]

Just read an article explaining that the NDP has the machine to 'secure' 8 seats max in Quebec. Anything above that would be a wave bonus.