CanPol: May(?) 2011 Election. Vote today!

[notyoueither]

@ Uncle Sparky

Which Edmonton seat are your sources saying will flip?

[notyoueither]

How much of a Bloc collapse would have to do with people actually not being serious about sovereignty?

As soon as Marois was proclaimed and said what she will do, and Duceppe made his speech, the Bloc started cratering.

Was it a '****, they are actually going to do it' moment?

[notyoueither]

Wondering if this is accurate.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/decision-canada/Tories+make+breakthrough+with+youth+voters/4661997/story.html

Tories make a breakthrough with youth voters
By Amy Minsky, Postmedia April 22, 2011


OTTAWA — The Conservatives are showing signs of breaking through the wall that has traditionally kept the party from reaching young Canadian voters, a poll for Postmedia News and Global National indicates.

Thirty-seven per cent of Canadians aged 18 to 34 who were polled said they would vote for the Conservative candidate in their riding.

The Liberals and NDP each received nods from 24 per cent of the respondents in that age group. Eight per cent said they would vote for the Bloc Quebecois, and six per cent said they'd choose their local Green candidate.

A smaller percentage of young voters back the Tories than do voters in other age groups, with 42 per cent of 35- to 54-year-olds saying they will vote blue, and 50 per cent of those older than 55 saying the same, the poll suggests.

But the Conservatives aren't doing as badly among young voters as some may think.

Conventional wisdom dictates that younger voters lean left, and slowly veer right as they grow older, said Darrel Bricker, the chief executive with Ipsos Reid, which released the poll this week.

But this time, none of the other parties are exactly leading the charge of the youth vote, he said.

"It's not like the Liberals or NDP are ruling among young people," he said. "We're not talking about huge differences."

The Liberals, Bloc and Greens do a bit better among youth than among older voters, according to the poll results.

But youth have become notorious for being no-shows on election day. So the Conservatives shouldn't rely on their increased strength among youth, Bricker said.

There are, however, some signs that the trend might be reversing.

Movements across university campuses — such as vote mobs, where students have banded together, hoisted signs and chanted to demonstrate their intention to vote — are indicating that younger people are trying to be more engaged in the election process this time.

More than 55 per cent of youth polled said they are "absolutely certain" they will vote in this election. Another 14 per cent said it is "very likely."

Still, many don't show up to the polls on election day, Bricker said.

"Even in Barack Obama's situation, where young people were supposedly more motivated to vote, the youth turnout only went up by about half a per cent," he said.

And with NDP leader Jack Layton commanding the most trust from young voters — with 45 per cent of respondents choosing him, 26 per cent choosing Conservative leader Stephen Harper and 10 per cent saying they'd invest their trust in Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff — the Conservatives could take a hit at the polls.

"Jack Layton has gone through a real re-birth," Bricker said. "The energy in his campaign and the difference in choice that he represents is really very appealing to a lot of young voters. The question is whether they'll show up to vote."

Young voters who spoke with Postmedia Friday at advance polls in Ottawa said they had been following the election.

Three first-time voters from the University of Ottawa said they watched the English and French debates, and that they'd intended to vote before the vote mobs gained steam.

But the trio had different opinions of which party was best suited to govern.

Kathryn Lupton, 18, said she'd typically vote Liberal but that she was voting for the NDP after she looked at party platforms.

"Michael Ignatieff keeps saying, 'You're either going to vote Conservative or you're going Liberal, pick your Canada' and I really didn't like this idea," she said.

Her peer, 18-year-old Marko Davidovic said he was also voting for the NDP, because Layton would steer the country in the right direction.

But Corey Campbell, 19, said he favoured Harper because he's done a good job as prime minister.

"He's already proven himself and he'll be able to keep doing well with the future, but I typically share a more left wing view," Campbell said.

This data was pulled from a subsection of a larger poll Ipsos Reid conduced by telephone April 18-20 of a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians. The margin of error for the 18-34 year olds is plus or minus 5.9 per cent.

In the survey, Canadians were asked: "Thinking of how you feel right now, if the federal election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties' candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support?" They were also asked, "As you may know, a federal election has been called for May 2. How likely would you be to vote in this election?" They were also asked, "To follow is a character trait that can be used to describe the federal political leaders. Please indicate which leader is best described by this trait: Someone you can trust?"

The full results are available at Ipsos.ca

canada.com and iPolitics.ca will livestream a debate on youth issues in Ottawa Wednesday, April 27 at 7 p.m. ET.

With files from Carmen Chai, Postmedia News

aminsky@postmedia.com

Twitter.com/amyminsky
© Copyright (c) Postmedia News

[Asher]

Ipsos poll says the Tories are heading to a majority...NDP is in 2nd?

[Wezil]

Ipsos poll says the Tories are heading to a majority...NDP is in 2nd?

NDP support is notoriously soft. I wouldn't count on polls translating to seats. Anyway, I found this in the same Ipsos poll to be interesting:

Stephen Harper’s campaign for a majority has been more vocal in recent days, saying that if he doesn’t win a majority government, the opposition will certainly try to take over running the country by means of a coalition. But Canadians are dead split on whether they would prefer a coalition of the Liberals and NDP or a majority government.

Nearly half (46%) would prefer to see ‘Stephen Harper and the Conservatives winning a majority government’. If a Harper majority is defined as the ballot-box issue for Canadians, and this proportion of Canadians shows up to vote for a Harper majority, they would certainly earn one with this proportion of the popular vote. The other half (46%) of Canadians, though, would prefer ‘the Liberals and the NDP forming a coalition to take over from Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.

But the story changes, slightly, when the Bloc Quebecois is thrown into the mix. More Canadians would rather see ‘Stephen Harper and the Conservatives winning a majority government’ (48%) than ‘the Liberals, NDP and Bloc forming a coalition to take over from Stephen Harper and the Conservatives’ (41%). One in ten (11%) are undecided.

[Uncle Sparky]

So today postmedia (and I don't have a link, read it in a 'newspaper') had 2 competing scenarios based on projections - one had the Cons taking up to 201 seats through vote splitting, the other with the Cons taking a little over 120 seats and forming a razor thin minority.

Elections Canada has suggested a very heavy voter turn out occured on Friday's advance poll. Some people compained about the wait.

Funny, eh?

@nye - I didn't say Edmonton, I said Alberta...

[notyoueither]

Outside of Edmonton?

Do your sources smoke crack?

[notyoueither]

BTW

They will lose seats in NS & NB, MB & SK and one in Edmonton

Not this Edmonton? The one in Kentucky?

Edit: I'm thinking you're thinking of Edmonton-Sherwood Park. It is 'outside' of Edmonton, except for the slivers of Edmonton pinned onto the riding.

You are aware that the conservative candidates there polled five times the votes of the nearest non-conservative, and if the Indy conservative candidate wins he could likely sit in a Harper cabinet?

[Uncle Sparky]

Outside of Edmonton?

Do your sources smoke crack?

Not in years. and there is an Edmonton in Englandia too - but I'm talkind about ... wait for it ....

OTTAWA -- The prospect of an NDP surge has parties going back to their electoral calculators to determine if it might cost the Conservatives a few seats -- or give them the most crushing majority in a quarter-century.

Or maybe a bit of both.

The reality of the riding-by-riding breakdown is that the Tories could lose a few close races while still coasting on an orange wave all the way to their coveted majority.

That unpredictability was reflected in seat projections Friday that offered a wild range of potential outcomes, with the Tories being pegged to win anything from a smaller minority to a whopping 201-seat majority.

The uncertainty is also reflected in Prime Minister Stephen Harper's itinerary. He will begin the day today in Toronto, where a stronger NDP showing could help him, and end it in B.C., where it could cost him an existing seat.

Even the Conservative attack ads are getting less predictable. The party released a spot Friday focusing on New Democrats for the first time in this campaign, but also announced ad buys targeting its more traditional foes -- the Liberals and Bloc Québécois.

The NDP spot is similar in substance and tone to older Tory attacks on the Liberals' Michael Ignatieff. Black-and-white images of NDP Leader Jack Layton and Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe are set among shadows in the Tory ad as a sneering narrator intones that the NDP chief is driven by blind ambition.

The New Democrats held a news conference in Ottawa to respond to the Conservative ad, demanding it be yanked because it is based, in their view, on false information.

But the NDP's gain in popularity may also be the Conservatives' gain. A big turnout of New Democrat voters could split the left-of-centre vote, says a veteran pollster, allowing the Tories to sneak up the middle in a number of ridings.

Harris-Decima chairman Allan Gregg says that in general, the NDP is the second choice of most Liberal voters. "So in aggregate, if the Liberals go down, New Democrats go up," Gregg said.

"So it's probably, in aggregate again, in the Conservatives' best interest to support or cheer-lead for the New Democrats, because their rise in support will come disproportionately from Liberal voters."

He cautions that doesn't hold true everywhere. The NDP runs second to the Conservatives in some B.C., Prairie, Ontario and Atlantic Canada ridings.

Hence Harper's stop Saturday in B.C's Vancouver Island North riding, held by Conservative John Duncan, who faces a threat from NDP candidate Ronna-Rae Leonard. Another New Democrat challenger finished a close second against Duncan in the 2008 campaign.

Nowhere is the NDP's newfound popularity more surprising than in Quebec. That's partly because some of the Bloc's soft nationalist vote is bleeding to the New Democrats. Some polls even put the NDP -- for the first time ever -- in first place in that province.

Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe warned voters in his province not to be drawn in by Layton's smile. Duceppe, usually a friendly ally of Layton's in Parliament, cranked up his attacks on the New Democrat as someone who is out of touch with Quebecers on many issues.

"I am inviting Quebecers to reflect, to discuss this and look beyond the image, to not vote for a mirage, but for a party, the Bloc Québécois, that is the mirror of Quebec society."

Layton shot back while campaigning in Toronto: "We won't give up. We will continue our efforts to demonstrate that people have a real choice."

All federal parties appear worried they might pay a political price if the NDP continues its rise in the polls.

The Liberals, who have consistently tried making this election an either-or struggle between them and Stephen Harper, now have an added obstacle on their path.

One Conservative source says his party would stand to make gains from an NDP rise. The latest trends certainly have the hearts of some Tory supporters beating orange.

One need only glance at the Twitter website for signs of a Layton love-fest among Conservative backers, though the party itself is offering no such kudos through official channels.

"Mr. Layton's reward for running an ideas-based campaign," former Tory staffer Yaroslav Baran wrote after a recent poll put the New Democrats ahead of the Liberals.

"Gotta say, 'Opposition Leader Jack Layton' is a rather intriguing and politically reinvigorating concept," he tweeted later.

Opined Conservative blogger Stephen Taylor: "Imagine: Jack Layton as leader of the opposition. Would give Liberals a much- needed timeout to finally rebuild their party."

But it's not just across the Twitterverse and blogosphere that Layton is suddenly popular with those on the political right.

Layton appeared as a guest during the first week the conservative-leaning Sun News Network was on the air. Twice this week, the Sun newspaper chain splashed an orange banner across the front page of its Ottawa edition, featuring photos of the NDP leader smiling and waving.

Meanwhile, voting began Friday at advance polls where people could cast their ballots early.



-- The Canadian Press
Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition April 23, 2011

... Calgary.

[notyoueither]

Well, that would be extraordinary.

Where is Calgary mentioned in that article?

There are maybe three ridings where the conservative candidate(s) are not double the field, or more, in Alberta. All three are Edmonton ridings contained within the city.

Duncan is not a safe seat either. Odds of it going back to the Conservatives are likely much greater than of a Calgary riding going NDP.

[Asher]

There's no ****ing chance an NDP would get elected in Calgary this year.

[Fake Boris]

This whole NDP talk is a ****ing joke.

It's an intoxication campaign launched by La Presse (Paul Desmarais, Power Corp.). He will do anything to hurt the Bloc.

They made a headline of the fact that the NDP scored first in an ONLINE POLL. The article was marvelling at the possibility of an orange revolution in Quebec - only to conclude in the last sentence that "the poll wasn't probabilist".

[Flubber]

Calgary Centre Lee Richardson
25,302 Heesung Kim 8,234 Tyler Kinch 4,204 Natalie Odd
7,661Anthony Tony Grochowski (IND) 413 Lee Richardson

Calgary Centre-North Jim Prentice
27,371Doug James5,699John Chan7,417Eric Donovan7,403
Jason McNeil (Libert.) 345
Peggy Askin (M-L) 184 Jim Prentice


Calgary East Deepak Obhrai 21,311
Bernie Kennedy3,255 Ian Vaughan 3,768 Nathan David Coates3,403
Jason Devine (Communist) 323 Deepak Obhrai

Calgary Northeast Devinder Shory
18,917 Sanam Kang7,435
Vinay Dey 3,279 Abeed Monty Ahmad 2,035
Roger Richard (NA) 4,837
Daniel Blanchard (M-L) 211

Calgary�Nose Hill Diane Ablonczy
35,029
Anoush Newman
6,653
Stephanie Sundberg
3,953
Tony Hajj
4,669
Diane Ablonczy


Calgary Southeast Jason Kenney
41,322
Brad Carroll
4,880
Chris Willott
4,024
Margaret Chandler
5,744
Jason Kenney


Calgary Southwest Stephen Harper
38,545
Marlene LaMontagne
4,918
Holly Heffernan
4,119
Kelly Christie
4,732
Dennis Young (Libert.) 304
Larry R. Heather (CHP) 256 Stephen Harper



Calgary West Rob Anders
34,490
Jennifer Pollock
13,198
Teale Phelps Bondaroff
3,832
Randy Weeks
6,722
Kirk Schmidt (Ind.) 1,790
Andr� Vachon (M-L) 155 Rob Anders

Someone other that Conservatives winning a seat in Calgary would probably be a good thing for the city politically but i simply haven't seen and issue or candidate issue which can take away from the fact that an absolute majority of voters has been voting conservative election after election-- I mean look at those margins even for offensive folks like Anders!!

[notyoueither]

This whole NDP talk is a ****ing joke.

It's an intoxication campaign launched by La Presse (Paul Desmarais, Power Corp.). He will do anything to hurt the Bloc.

They made a headline of the fact that the NDP scored first in an ONLINE POLL. The article was marvelling at the possibility of an orange revolution in Quebec - only to conclude in the last sentence that "the poll wasn't probabilist".

There was more than one poll.

[Fake Boris]

Any of them is valid?