Massive Quake Hits NE Japan

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

What is the worst case scenario given our current information Ogie? We aren't looking at a Chernobyl style dirty bomb covering Asia, right?

No. Although the geology now needs to be understood. At TMI if the core got through RPV and into primary containment they were on lots of solid rock.


I suspect the issue now is understanding primary containment under the RPv for units 1 through 3. The effects will be local not regional or national.

Latest NEI indicates winds still blowing to the sea away from population.

[Hauldren Collider]

If the core melts through the primary containment and into the secondary containment (which as I understand is the plane-proof building, yes?) then would it be all but guaranteed to melt through secondary or could it cool off from being able to spread out and relieve pressure?

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Secondary containment is really only a negativevpressure housing and missile shield. Primary containment is the tons of steel and concrete that hold the reactor pressure vessel. If they have given up the ghost trying to keep water in the RPV they have resigned themselves tonallowing the water inventory to deplete itself in the RPV and ultimately melt fuel and RPV. They arevgambling then that primary containment which is designed to hold a molten core can do so. Theoretically yes, but never proven. If it gets past primary containment worst case is long term ground ground water contamination the extent of which depends on site geology.

[Guynemer]

So what happens if these last 50 workers really have pulled out? I mean... Jesus. How do we get more water on the rods, put out the fires, etc.?

Are we looking at a potential Chernobyl-style "exclusion zone" around the plant for the next several decades?

[Thorn]

100 years

[SlowwHand]

They're already saying it's the worst yet, which includes Chernobyl; and it's not over.

[Thorn]

If you need any worse case scenarios for any situation you know where to find me.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

So what happens if these last 50 workers really have pulled out? I mean... Jesus. How do we get more water on the rods, put out the fires, etc.?

Are we looking at a potential Chernobyl-style "exclusion zone" around the plant for the next several decades?

All in unknown territory. Let's see what the manning of the station is. I'm seeing reports on Rueters and msnbc that either a crew remains or they were off the clock for 45 minutes while rad subsides. Rueters confirms this as a governmental statement. Moved to different location until rad levels drop.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

NYT confirms group remains.

[Guynemer]

Reassuring, assuming the rad levels will drop.

Sloww--this is not nearly as catastrophic as Chernobyl, thus far. Chances are it won't go that far.

[Berzerker]

didn't they have to just back away and let chernobyl burn for ~10 days

[Thorn]

100 years, does everyone have me on ignore or something?

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Too late for me need sleep.

[SlowwHand]

Reassuring, assuming the rad levels will drop.

Sloww--this is not nearly as catastrophic as Chernobyl, thus far. Chances are it won't go that far.

That's not what I've read, on more sites than one. I even quoted at least two of them here.

Here. Try these.

Japan spent fuel rods pose danger worse than Chernobyl
The Vancouver Observer - Linda Solomon - 6 hours ago
He added that there's still the possibility that the spent fuel rods will become exposed, igniting a reaction that could prove to be worse than Chernobyl. ...
Video: Fire Erupts Again at Japanese Nuclear Plant The Associated Press
5 Reasons Radiation Exposure in Japan May Be Worse Than You Thought - AOL News
Japan nuclear crisis eclipses Three Mile Island, nears 'Chernobyl ... - Christian Science Monitor
Sky News - Washington Examiner (blog)
all 34856 news articles »

[Thorn]

well at least no one has died of it so far (reported), tick tok.