WikiLeaks' First Scalp -- Tunisia

[Hauldren Collider]

Who cares? Seriously, what materially would change if we decide not to give him billions per year in tanks and fighter jets?

Well that is our way of keeping him in line with our foreign policy goals...so I'm guessing some of our foreign policy goals might change. Don't think we give those tanks to Egypt out of the goodness of our hearts. Given the anti-Muslim and anti-Arab sentiments in this country if both parties didn't think we had important foreign policy agendas that required Egypt's support you can bet that our aid to Egypt would be right up there on the chopping block for cutting the budget.

[Hauldren Collider]

Tin pot dictators would be less eager to be our allies in the future. Boo hoo.

Considering how many tin pot dictators there are on this Earth, pissing them off would be a bad idea.

[Wezil]

Mubarak might not survive but the regime could. And he could very well keep power until the end of his term.

How does he get the people to go home and back to work?

As Obama said, the status quo is not sustainable.

[Aeson]

Obviously we lose out on the ability to export goods our industrial military complex produces. On the other hand, if Islamic militants take over we likely can "export" a lot more bombs from high altitudes... so it's really a win:win for us isn't it?

[Egbert]

Ah, but who pays for the bombs? The Egyptian taxpayer or the U.S. taxpayer hence the merits of selling bombs rather than dropping bombs.

[Aeson]

The Chinese pay for it silly.

[Wezil]

Pro and anti-Mubarak forces are fighting in the streets now while the military stands by. It looks like Mubarak is prepared to ride his country into the dirt. What a patriot.

Time to find a lamppost with his name on it.

[MOBIUS]

Looks like Mubarak dodged the bullet until September then...

Ironically, possibly the best decision all round.

[Wezil]

He won't last until September.

Leaving in September is an unacceptable offer as he can't be trusted. This won't end until he either leaves or is retired ala Ceausecu.

[MOBIUS]

He's just proved he's going to last till September. He's killed the momentum of the uprising.

What's the alternative right now? The army stepping in for some kind of interim measure and the guy at the top deciding he likes all this new power? Some kind of anarchic chaos with the most organised opposition (read: Muslim Brotherhood) getting the keys to power?

This way, all parties concerned can prepare for free and fair elections in September with and organised and peaceful transfer of power - hopefully to people we like.

[Wezil]

He's just proved he's going to last till September. He's killed the momentum of the uprising.

Cite? That is not what I am seeing.

What's the alternative right now? The army stepping in for some kind of interim measure and the guy at the top deciding he likes all this new power? Some kind of anarchic chaos with the most organised opposition (read: Muslim Brotherhood) getting the keys to power?

Is the staus quo tenable?

This way, all parties concerned can prepare for free and fair elections in September with and organised and peaceful transfer of power - hopefully to people we like.

Mubarak leaving now will not prevent elections in September.

[MOBIUS]

Cite? That is not what I am seeing.

The army hasn't switched sides. What else can the public do now, except get beaten up by Mubarak's thugs? They've done their big thing - it didn't work.

Is the staus quo tenable?

Yes. Amazing how quickly Iran returned to 'normal' once the authorities had faced down the protesters.

Mubarak leaving now will not prevent elections in September.

Yes, but what he is replaced with is altogether more unpredictable and potentially scary for the west.

This way, the US can work behind the scenes on Mubarak; reforms can be put in place from now till September; political parties other than the Muslim Brotherhood can coalesce and prepare; etc etc...

You seem to be advocating a potentially chaotic leap into the dark when a systematic and considered approach is required.

[Wezil]

The army hasn't switched sides. What else can the public do now, except get beaten up by Mubarak's thugs? They've done their big thing - it didn't work.

No cite? I call BS on your claim that the momentum has been lost.

They can continue to keep the country shut down until Mubarak leaves.

Yes. Amazing how quickly Iran returned to 'normal' once the authorities had faced down the protesters.

The authorities have not faced them down.

How does Mubarak get everyone to go home and back to work? I asked HC the same question.

Yes, but what he is replaced with is altogether more unpredictable and potentially scary for the west.

This way, the US can work behind the scenes on Mubarak; reforms can be put in place from now till September; political parties other than the Muslim Brotherhood can coalesce and prepare; etc etc...

You seem to be advocating a potentially chaotic leap into the dark when a systematic and considered approach is required.

First, you would have to be mighty gullible to believe Mubarak will leaver in September if the protests end today. I have a bridge for you.

Secondly, I don't know what will fill the void in the interim but it is plainly obvious the situation as it exists cannot continue for another 8 months. It just isn't possible for a nation of 80 million to be moribund that long.

[MOBIUS]

No cite? I call BS on your claim that the momentum has been lost.

All I'm seeing is people getting beaten up by the pro-Mubarak supporters as the army stands by and lets it happen - looks like a loss of momentum to me.

They can continue to keep the country shut down until Mubarak leaves.

Yeah right. Many of these people are dirt poor.

The authorities have not faced them down.

What planet are you on!? The Iranian authorities spent a couple of weeks beating the crap out of their populace, who were the first to buckle. Situation normal since then.

How does Mubarak get everyone to go home and back to work? I asked HC the same question.

He doesn't have to. They have to eat.

First, you would have to be mighty gullible to believe Mubarak will leaver in September if the protests end today.

He will have no choice.

Secondly, I don't know what will fill the void in the interim but it is plainly obvious the situation as it exists cannot continue for another 8 months. It just isn't possible for a nation of 80 million to be moribund that long.

That's the problem: you don't know - no one knows! What you advocate is chaos and uncertainty over an, albeit damaged, status quo that's worked for the country for the last 30 years.

[Wezil]

All I'm seeing is people getting beaten up by the pro-Mubarak supporters as the army stands by and lets it happen - looks like a loss of momentum to me.

Alright Moby - another chance. Cite someone else reporting the momentum has been lost.

Yeah right. Many of these people are dirt poor.

Looting, rioting and anarchy are on the way so long as the nation stays crippled.

What planet are you on!? The Iranian authorities spent a couple of weeks beating the crap out of their populace, who were the first to buckle. Situation normal since then.

Egypt Moby, Egypt. Yes, the Iranians beat the protesters down, Egypt did not.

He doesn't have to. They have to eat.

Does this even warrant a response? The President can preside over a country spiraling into anarchy. Okay Moby.

He will have no choice.

Why? He survives protests and doesn't get the shove by his benefactor. Just a rough patch.

That's the problem: you don't know - no one knows! What you advocate is chaos and uncertainty over an, albeit damaged, status quo that's worked for the country for the last 30 years.

The only thing I am advocating is the removal of Mubarak.

You can't possibly be arguing that the situation of Egypt today is the same as it's been for 30 years. Don't be disingenuous.