WikiLeaks' First Scalp -- Tunisia

[MOBIUS]

Alright Moby - another chance. Cite someone else reporting the momentum has been lost.

I've just given you a bunch of examples from readily available online sources.

Looting, rioting and anarchy are on the way so long as the nation stays crippled.

No. Martial law is. If the crowds haven't dispersed in, say the next 24hrs, the army is like to move to restore order after giving the people this current grace period. Looters most likely getting shot etc. They'll be able to justify it too, on the account of the anarchy.

Egypt Moby, Egypt. Yes, the Iranians beat the protesters down, Egypt did not.

Not yet, maybe because Mubarak was never in any real danger? Anyway, my example of Iran holds because IIRC it was the paid thugs of the Iranian govt that broke the pro-democracy movement there and not the army - just like what appears to be starting to happen in Egypt now...

Does this even warrant a response? The President can preside over a country spiraling into anarchy. Okay Moby.

It is one of the core reasons of this entire uprising. Mubarak can thin out the opposition simply by waiting out those that cannot afford to continue protesting.

Why? He survives protests and doesn't get the shove by his benefactor. Just a rough patch.

I think too many very powerful people will now expect him to keep to his word.

The only thing I am advocating is the removal of Mubarak.

Well, the problem is, to do that means all the other stuff happening as well - not even I could predict the outcome of that...

You can't possibly be arguing that the situation of Egypt today is the same as it's been for 30 years. Don't be disingenuous.

Pretty much. Obviously the odd bump in the road along the way, but it's that stability that the US likes, after all...

[Wezil]

You have not provided one single cite so quit saying you have. All you provided was your opinion that the momentum has been lost. I'd like to see if anyone else out there shares it.

You say the army will intervene soon. This may be true but we haven't seen it yet. It is also possible the people will tire of Mubarak's BS and start marching on him directly.

I don't think Mubarak can possibly survive this turmoil longer than the people can. Just look at how the US position has changed over the last week. Eventually they will openly be calling for him to step aside.

The thugs are certainly back but remember they were driven from the street last Friday and are only returning today...out of uniform. I doubt they can exert more force and fear today than they could last week.

I think you need to consult a dictionary if you think Egypt today is stable. Even the Obama admin stopped trying to spin that line.

[Dinner]

Well that is our way of keeping him in line with our foreign policy goals...so I'm guessing some of our foreign policy goals might change. Don't think we give those tanks to Egypt out of the goodness of our hearts. Given the anti-Muslim and anti-Arab sentiments in this country if both parties didn't think we had important foreign policy agendas that required Egypt's support you can bet that our aid to Egypt would be right up there on the chopping block for cutting the budget.

Again who cares? He'd be forced to go along with most of them for purely market based reasons as picking a fight with the west won't help develop the country. Just stop giving them all money and/or military equipment for free (if they want such equipment then they can ****ing pay for it themselves) and be done with it. America needs to look after itself and let the welfare queens pay their own way without our help. If our policy goals are reasonably good then most people will agree with them without resorting to bribery and if our policies are so bad people won't agree to them willingly then maybe we ought to consider changing those policy goals? Just a thought.

[Dinner]

Egypt Moby, Egypt. Yes, the Iranians beat the protesters down, Egypt did not.

Until yesterday. The news reports now are that paid thugs working for Mubarak have taken to the streets with clubs and knives and they're beating the opposition down in the streets. Will it work in this case? I don't know but such strong arm tactics did work in Iran last summer.

[Dinner]

New reports are that Mubarak's thugs are riding horse & camels as well as driving cars into the crowd of protesters. Basically, it sounds like they're trying to trample people and/or scare them off of the streets. There is also video footage of someone throwing molotov cocktails at Army tanks. There is no news about who is throwing the petrol bombs but up until now the protesters had very good relations with the Army even giving them flowers and singing songs to them. If I had to guess, and it would only be a guess, it's Mubarak's thugs throwing the molotov cocktails because they're trying to cause violence just so the regime can have an excuse to crack down and stay in power.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/egypt-clashes-tahrir-square-turns-battleground-hosni-mubarak/story?id=12820071

http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/molotov-cocktails-fly-egypt-protest-12821961

[Dinner]

No cite? I call BS on your claim that the momentum has been lost.

The number of protesters in Tahrir Square was considerably less than Tuesday, which marked the largest day of gathering in the protests that started last week.

It seems violence is forcing people off the streets.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/egypt-clashes-tahrir-square-turns-battleground-hosni-mubarak/story?id=12820071

[MOBIUS]

You have not provided one single cite so quit saying you have. All you provided was your opinion that the momentum has been lost. I'd like to see if anyone else out there shares it.

You say the army will intervene soon. This may be true but we haven't seen it yet. It is also possible the people will tire of Mubarak's BS and start marching on him directly.

I don't think Mubarak can possibly survive this turmoil longer than the people can. Just look at how the US position has changed over the last week. Eventually they will openly be calling for him to step aside.

The thugs are certainly back but remember they were driven from the street last Friday and are only returning today...out of uniform. I doubt they can exert more force and fear today than they could last week.

I think you need to consult a dictionary if you think Egypt today is stable. Even the Obama admin stopped trying to spin that line.

Sorry dude, I couldn't be bothered wasting my time on something you could find in a click or two...

Your problem is you're far too idealistic for your own good: just because you wish for something to happen just because you think it should doesn't automatically mean it will...

Your only chance now is that Mubarak might over-egg the violence his thugs cause and piss off the sensibilities of whoever is controlling the army - but my guess is that they're all in cahoots.

[Wezil]

It seems violence is forcing people off the streets.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/egypt-clashes-tahrir-square-turns-battleground-hosni-mubarak/story?id=12820071

I am aware of the thugs. Do you think they are more effective today than they were last week? If so, why?

Wait until after prayers Friday.

[Wezil]

Sorry dude, I couldn't be bothered wasting my time on something you could find in a click or two...

Too hard for you I guess. You made the claim but couldn't support it.




I am really looking forward to using your favourite Poly quote (in appropriately large type) against you. It's going to be sweet.

[Wezil]

Protesters demanding President Hosni Mubarak's ouster packed Cairo's central square in huge numbers Friday, waving Egyptian flags, singing the national anthem and cheering, appearing undaunted and determined after their camp withstood two days of street battles with regime supporters trying to dislodge them.

Thousands more flowed over bridges across the Nile into Tahrir Square, a sign that they were not intimidated after fending off everything thrown at the protesters by pro-Mubarak attackers – stones, firebombs, fighters on horses and camels and automatic gunfire. The protesters passed through a series of beefed-up checkpoints by the military and the protesters themselves guarding the square.

The crowd, well over 10,000, was the biggest since Tuesday, when a quarter-million turned out. They chanted, prayed and unfurled a long banner in the national colours of red, black and white. A man sitting in a wheelchair was lifted – wheelchair and all – over the heads of the crowd and he pumped his arms in the air.

Egyptian Defence Minister Hussein Tantawi and senior army officials visited the square Friday morning and soldiers were checking IDs and performing body searches at its entrances, a sign that Egypt's most powerful institution was sanctioning the demonstration. Protesters labeled the rally the “day of departure,” a reference to their demand Mr. Mubarak go on Friday.

Too bad that momentum has been lost.

In Washington, the Obama administration said it was in talks with top Egyptian officials about the possibility of Mr. Mubarak immediately resigning, and an interim government forming before free and fair elections this year.

U.S. officials said the creation of a military-backed caretaker government was one of several ideas being discussed between the Egyptian regime and the Obama administration. The American officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the continuing sensitive talks.

Among the options was a proposal for Mr. Mubarak to resign immediately and cede power to a transitional government run by Vice-President Omar Suleiman, the officials said.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/crisis-in-egypt/latest-news/anti-mubarak-activists-gather-in-cairo-square-for-departure-day-protest/article1894075/

Lets hope.

[MOBIUS]

Too hard for you I guess. You made the claim but couldn't support it.

I simply chose not to.

It was all over the papers. The Guardian is a particularly good source of up to the minute updates. At that moment lots of people were saying we've got what we want (Mubarak leaving in September etc) and were leaving the demonstration.

Then the pro-Mubarak supporters turned up and started beating people up to which I said:

Your only chance now is that Mubarak might over-egg the violence his thugs...

Well, guess what looks like has happened - all those people that said let him step down with some dignity are right back out on the streets again...

I am really looking forward to using your favourite Poly quote (in appropriately large type) against you. It's going to be sweet.

So am I, because right now, I have predicted things perfectly: Too much violence by Mubarak's thugs seems to have swung the pendulum at the critical moment back towards the pro-democracy movement.

The situation is now at a knife-edge, simply because Mubarak out douched himself and didn't know how to quit when he was ahead.

[Wezil]

Still no cite on the loss of momentum? You really can't support that claim but you absolutely refuse to abandon it. Sad.

Mubarak will not survive until September (as you said) as the current situation is not sustainable (as I said).

Forget just quoting you back to yourself. This pwning will deserve it's own thread. Watch for it.

[MOBIUS]

Unlike you, I don't have ego issues, it seems. I told you where to find the information and you stuck your head in the sand.

At the time I said it, the momentum was gone. I also said that he'd survived unless he overdid it with his thugs. Well, he overdid it with his thugs and guess what? The pro-democracy side has the momentum again. That possible outcome was soooo difficult to predict, that I had already predicted it!

I still think that there is a significant chance for Mubarak to survive, say 50/50? He's still there now, actually. Besides, the alternative is only going to be Mubarak-lite, so the very best you can hope for is exactly the same government that's currently in power, just without their current figurehead. So Mubarak, or his government - it's certainly not going to be this pie-in-the-sky idealist interim government of pro-democracy factions before proper elections, or whatever it is you're advocating.

Why not just quote myself? So far everything has come to pass the way I have said it. In fact the reason why you're all over me in this thread like a sex starved horny moose is because I was the only person on poly to predict that this situation in Egypt might even happen and you were the one saying that it would not. What's the matter, did I damage your fragile ego? I can understand your need to get even with me, but you're being really entertainingly childish going about it...

[Lorizael]

So far everything has come to pass the way I have said it.

MOBIUS is now claiming to be a Dark Lord of the Sith.

[Elok]

MOBIUS is now claiming to be a Dark Lord of the Sith.

Yeah, I can kinda see him doing that: [creepy voice]I assure you, Mubarak is quite safe from your rebel friends here.[/cv] Can't you?