Apolyton US Election Coverage Thread

[giblets]

"It was a surefire loss, and now the Republicans have a chance to actually win something."

http://apolyton.net/showthread.php/1...ts-Mike-Castle

"Obama is extremely unpopular these days and the electorate is furious. O'Donnell gives them a chance to vote for someone."

Good analysis Ben, I'm sure she'll win by a landslide.

[KrazyHorse]

Wish intrade still had the DE senate contract open so I could post the chart. Republican wins dropped by something like 50 points when that loony tunes won the primary.

[giblets]

Did it look something like this?

[KrazyHorse]

Yeah, thanks.

[Guynemer]

Didn't Ben claim to support her?

Obviously.

[Guynemer]

Yeah, thanks.

I can't believe it was still sitting in the 10-20 range; unless Coons was caught raping a 6-year-old with progeria, there was--literally--zero chance O'Donnell was going to win.

[KrazyHorse]

1) It didn't say O'Donnell; it said "Republican candidate". She's crazy enough that some people may have been betting on her dropping out of the race (or being forced to drop out)

2) We have more information on her now than we did in the middle of September

3) That 20% decayed as time went on. This is a standard pattern in binary options. When you are far out of the money, you need dramatic moves in order to even hold your position (the theta of the option is strongly negative)