Swedish election - could it end in violent revolution ?

[Kitschum]

Personally I feel smaller parties are more dangerous because it's a shorter way to the top, and they usually have no practical experience with ruling. They seem more clean and fresh only because they very rarely have to take responsiblity for any decisions. What's worse, they might come to cherish their "uncompromising" image and never be able to work with anyone else satisfactorily.

More power to smaller parties means we'll end up with post-election gridlock as everyone blocks everyone else. This is what's going on in Netherlands and Belgium and why they are unable to form lasting governments. I much prefer our way.

[OzzyKP]

Poly Scandinavians fighting amongst themselves.

So SD is listed on your chart as yellow, does that mean they are the liberal party? Yet they are a racist party?

[BlackCat]

Poly Scandinavians fighting amongst themselves.

That is a millenium old tradition

So SD is listed on your chart as yellow, does that mean they are the liberal party? Yet they are a racist party?

I don't think that I'm very wrong if I say that swedes consider US republicans as racists, so you are probably rigth -come to think about it - I think that they also consider democrats as racists

[Kitschum]

Poly Scandinavians fighting amongst themselves.

So SD is listed on your chart as yellow, does that mean they are the liberal party? Yet they are a racist party?

No, but red, green and blue were taken so they got yellow. They are a nostalgic party. Basically they want to turn back time on society 40-50 years. Socially conservative and center-left economically IMO.

They want to stop immigration almost completely and fight 'islamization'. This is what most people know about them, and consider the kind of people that are drawn to this message (like the news articles I posted before). I'm not lying when I say they are a contradictory and diverse party, but that's not necessarily a good thing.

Instead of immigration they want to spend money old people, like in the ad. Harsher sentences to fight crime. Re-introduce conscription (it was just abolished) and bring our troops back from Afghanistan. They want the state to run the schools again. I think they're against gay marriage but they might be more discreet with that since it emerged they were quite popular with readers of a gay magazine.

[Kitschum]

Reinfeldt Set to Win Vote as Economy Outperforms EU
September 08, 2010, 3:57 AM EDT

By Johan Carlstrom

(Updates with growth figures in 16th paragraph.)

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt is likely to secure a second term this month, polls show, as voters reward his fiscal stewardship that has helped the country’s economy outperform within the European Union.

The four-party coalition was ahead of the Social Democrat- led opposition in four August surveys by Sifo, the country’s biggest pollster. That points to a government victory in the Sept. 19 election, said Soeren Holmberg, a political science professor at Gothenburg University. It may also allow Reinfeldt to rule without the support of the anti-immigration Swedish Democrats.

“The group that has been ahead in Sifo’s August polls has won the last 13 consecutive elections,” Holmberg said in a Sept. 2 interview. “The focus since May has been on taxes and the economy. White-collar workers, primarily from the big cities, have deserted the opposition for the government.”

Reinfeldt will this year deliver the biggest economic rebound and the smallest budget deficit in the 27-member EU. That is persuading voters, who backed Social-Democrat governments in 55 of the last 65 years, to stay with an administration campaigning on tax cuts. Sweden’s 2010 growth rate will be 4 1/2 times the EU average. The deficit will be 2.1 percent of output this year, compared with an average shortfall across the bloc of 7.2 percent of GDP.

That has helped strengthen the krona by 6.6 percent against the dollar since the end of June. The currency was the third- best performer behind the Australian dollar and Swiss franc of 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The yield on the 10- year government bond eased to 2.43 percent yesterday, compared with 2.26 percent for German bunds of the same maturity -- a smaller spread to German debt than any euro member.

Fiscal Story

“The fiscal story is certainly better than the rest of Europe,” said Jonathan Fayman, a fund manager at BlueBay Asset Management in London, which oversees about $38 billion, in an interview. “The krona may have room to strengthen further.”

A Sept. 7 poll by Skop showed the government will get 49.7 percent and the three-party opposition grouping 44.4 percent. The poll of 1,525 people, with a margin of error of about 3.5 points, indicates Reinfeldt, 45, may become the first Moderate Party premier to win a second term since 1908. Government backing was 48.6 percent to 51.5 percent in the August Sifo polls.

Support for the Swedish Democrats, who want to position themselves as kingmakers amid pledges to reduce immigration by as much as 90 percent, was at 4.3 percent, in the Sept. 7 Skop poll, above the 4 percent threshold needed for parliamentary representation, which would give them seats for the first time since their 1988 formation.

Dragon Tattoo

The party has broadened its appeal, said Mikael Ekman, a journalist who in 2001 co-authored “The Swedish Democrats: the national movement” with Stieg Larsson, creator of the worldwide best-seller “The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo.”

Larsson would have questioned the legitimacy parliamentary seats would give the Swedish Democrats, Ekman said.

He “used to say: ‘It walks like a duck and talks like a duck but it ain’t a duck,’ to illustrate that despite cosmetic changes they still represent a politics he thinks nothing of,” Ekman said. “They have become a professional party with a leader who’s not a skinhead and who wears a suit and it then becomes more O.K. to vote for them.”

The party’s leader, Jimmie Aakesson, said in a March 26 interview he wants to reduce immigration to generate extra revenue he says will be used to improve elderly care and cut taxes for pensioners.

Create Problems

Reinfeldt, whose coalition has 176 of 349 parliamentary seats, said in an Aug. 30 interview he doesn’t want to seek support from the Swedish Democrats. The opposition has ruled out collaborating with the party.

“It will create a lot of problems for a minority government if the Swedish Democrats become kingmakers,” said Tommy Moeller, a political science professor at Stockholm University. “A scenario where the Swedish Democrats make life sour for the government by voting for the opposition’s policies” would create “a completely chaotic situation.”

Still, the Swedish Democrats “will most likely find it difficult to make an impact since none of the other parties will cooperate with them,” he said.

Reinfeldt wooed supporters from the Social Democrats after raising growth forecasts twice since June. An Aug. 20 prediction for a 4.5 percent expansion this year was followed by plans to target 25 billion kronor more in income and pensioner tax cuts through 2014. The economy grew a revised 1.9 percent in the second quarter from the first three months of the year, Stockholm-based Statistics Sweden said today. Annual growth for the quarter was revised up to 4.6 percent from 3.7 percent.

Small Difference

The government’s focus on supporting weaker members of society makes it difficult for the opposition to present itself as the only guardian of welfare, Holmberg said.

The difference between the two groupings “is smaller now than it’s been before in the eyes of voters,” Holmberg said.

The government has cut taxes and abolished a wealth levy since 2006. The opposition wants to raise unemployment and sickness benefits and cut pensioner taxes by raising levies on income and energy. It also will re-introduce a wealth tax.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-09-08/reinfeldt-set-to-win-vote-as-economy-outperforms-eu.html

Bloomberg's suspiciously Swedish-sounding writer thinks the right coalition will win in this rather congratulatory article. It's hard to argue with that.

I have to wonder though if it's even possible to write a story about Sweden in 2010 without mentioning "the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo". Larsson's political leanings are well-known so his friend's comments are no surprise. It's too bad that "Let the Right One in" was released two years ago. That book's author's views would be more interesting.

It's pretty interesting to see how opinion has changed since the last election. It was only in May that the government overtook the opposition and now their victory is almost seen as a sure thing.


http://sverigesradio.se/sida/gruppsida.aspx?programid=3615&grupp=9827

[Meticulous Man]

.

[Kitschum]

It's a disgrace. He was attacked when throwing out garbage and forced inside at knifepoint. They held him for 20 mins, beat him and cut him, and left with his computer. He says in the papers though that the hospital told him there might not be any permanent scars so maybe it was just a superficial cut.

Apparently it's not even a first for him. He was attacked with a knife in March after handing out flyers at a high school. I think the picture is another incident. It says he's a "people hater" and a "racist pig".

[Meticulous Man]

.

[Kitschum]

How disappointing.

[Meticulous Man]

.

[Kitschum]

Yes, politics stirs up emotion, and when you so clearly identify a group as the object of your (verbal) attacks this is even more so, but you realize that works the other way too? I'll try to explain.

Critics can hardly complain of a lack for voice and have no reason to resort to violence to get their "message" out. They have been and continue to be heard in newspapers, on TV, on radio, on facebook and out in public. I hear criticism of SD by a factor of 10 than their own statements and I usually don't go looking for either.

Representatives of SD at all levels have been examined by the media up and down for incriminating or embarrassing actions or statements unlike how any other party is treated. Members have been fired from their jobs when their political affiliations became known, others expelled from their union. (This is what we did to known communists during the cold war.)

All major parties have distanced themselves from them and rather compete to present themselves as the least like them. This is fine by me, it's a part of politics and it's fair to argue that SDers sometimes revel in their role as "martyrs" or outsiders and fighting the "establishment".

The same day of the attack SD held a rally at Gustav Adolf's square in Malmö - attended by the attacked politician and probably his attackers too - which resembled a riot: bottles, eggs, firecrackers thrown, masked individuals skulking around looking for a fight, and assault charges brought. The counter-demo was supposed to just be a lot of booing, but that it was derailed was not a surprise. More or less, this is what we have come to expect now.


Dierct quote: "It is thanks to this kind of thing that we will get into parliament."

http://www.sydsvenskan.se/malmo/article1234863/Laddat-for-drabbning-vid-SD-mote-i-Malmo.html

But it doesn't stop there. Insults, threats, smashed cars, smashed windows on their homes, slurs written on their walls, and even assaults have been a fairly regular occurance for SDers and their family members, and it seems to just get worse as they get closer to entering parliament.

So when I heard about the latest attack I didn't think: "Finally, somebody gets one in on those bullies." I thought "No, not again" and "Where will it end?"

For example, here's something from 2007:

The girlfriend of a leading Sweden Democrat politician was attacked on Wednesday at the couple's home in Bromma in west Stockholm.

Late in the afternoon the 19-year-old woman was found bound with duct tape in a stairwell of the apartment block where she lives with Martin Kinnunen, chairman of the youth wing of the far-right Sweden Democrats.

The woman was taken to hospital but did not have any serious physical injuries and was able to return home during the evening.

Martin Kinnunen told news agency TT that his girlfriend was still shocked after the day's events.

Earlier in the day three men had forced their way into the couple's apartment and held the 19-year-old at knife point. She was bound with duct tape and taken out to the stairwell before the men left the scene.

Martin Kinnunen is convinced that the threat was in fact directed at him.

"In recent weeks we have received a lot of threats. There have been strange phone calls and we have seen people outside our apartment late at night," he said.

"They also told her that I should watch out. Otherwise something much worse would happen in the future."

According to the police, Kinnunen has previously reported threats made against him.

"We can't rule out that there was a political motive," said spokesman Björn Engström.

http://www.thelocal.se/8201/20070816/

Then in 2009:

Three women were sentenced to prison on Wednesday for assaulting the girlfriend of the spokesperson for the far-right Sweden Democrats.

Martin Kinnunen and his girlfriend were walking near Gullmarsplan south of Stockholm in the late evening hours at the close of Sweden’s National Day on June 6th.

A group of people accosted the couple, who were thrown to the ground where they were kicked and hit with brass knuckles.

Two of the women were arrested the night of the attack, with a third being arrested two weeks later.

Both Kinnunen and his girlfriend sought treatment at a nearby hospital following the attack.

According to the court, there was no doubt that the assault was politically motivated.

Sentences for the three women varied between ten and twenty months.

While the women were convicted for assaulting Kinnunen’s girlfriend, they were acquitted of charges that they also beat the Sweden Democrat spokesperson.

In the eyes of the court, there was no doubt that Kinnunen was also attacked on the night in question, but the judges ultimately ruled that there was a lack of evidence indicating that the three women had also been responsible for assaulting the Sweden Democrat spokesperson.

http://www.thelocal.se/20844/20090722/

Kinnunen himself was also attacked, but likely by a different group of masked men that were not identified. After this he has withdrawn from politics and moved to Germany.

These do not appear to be disconnected events by lone, hurt individuals acting on emotion. They more resemble concerted campaigns by violent leftist groups (disclaimer: the recent attackers are unknown) aimed at silencing certain individuals and forcing them out of politics. I think that is pretty worrying even though I don't care for their arguments, which I find crude, and their solutions which are none of the kind.

[BlackCat]

Kit, I think that your optimism is endangered - SD is on 7 % currently

http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/valet2010/article7767790.ab

[Kitschum]

I've never been an optimist. I predicted 6+ remember?

http://apolyton.net/showthread.php/189443-How-many-keys-are-on-your-key-ring?p=5719815&viewfull=1#post5719815

Anyway, SD are usually high in United Minds polls. They were at 6.5% mid-August.

In the most recent Sifo poll they got 4.6, the government coalition got 51.7 and the opposition 42.

http://www.svd.se/nyheter/inrikes/stark-ledning-for-alliansen_5305037.svd

[BlackCat]

I've never been an optimist. I predicted 6+ remember?

http://apolyton.net/showthread.php/189443-How-many-keys-are-on-your-key-ring?p=5719815&viewfull=1#post5719815

Honestly, no, but it was a fun thread

[Pekka]

These elections are a big joke. And the media is so silent about it as well, I find it interesting. There's definitely political violence, systematic intimidation of a minority political group, harassment of the process of voting and polls, and also systematic sabotage of the process.

I don't know much about SD, but I don't care who they are. The nazi card is freaking old. Anyone pulling it out, and then at the same time not strongly condemning the action of what has been taken place are in my opinion the most dangerous element in Sweden right now, the extremes. I'm not very political, all I have to say is that SD is being attacked in all ways and violence and intimidation is occurring, and this somehow is NOT alarming? Of course it's always the small group of extremes, but I find this ANTIFA a group to be watched closely if I was SÄPO. They all call themselves the righteous ones, the path of justice, and whatever. All have the RIGHT cause. I'm talking, of course, about the terrorists.