World War 2 What If

[David Floyd]

The Germans don't really have the naval capacity to support North Africa.

No, but the Italians do, especially once Malta is off the table. Don't forget how many troops the Germans were able to push into Tunisia in response to Torch, and this was with a fully operational Malta.

The Luftwaffe will be needed to fend off the combined US/British air forces.

But not in mid 1942.

Occupying western Russia will require far more troops than the Germans plan on. Once US aid starts arriving the Soviet Union will re-enter the war.

It will require hundreds of thousands of troops, yes - but it certainly will free up a couple million combat soldiers, and much of the Heer's mobile components.

[Drake Tungsten]

Don't forget how many troops the Germans were able to push into Tunisia in response to Torch, and this was with a fully operational Malta.

Yes, troops that they couldn't keep supplied and troops that ended up surrendering en masse in what was nearly a second Stalingrad.

[David Floyd]

Yes, troops that they couldn't keep supplied and troops that ended up surrendering en masse in what was nearly a second Stalingrad.

Well, they kept them supplied and supported up through mid-May 1943, and had quite a bit to do with the fact that the British 1st Army was closing in from the West (including US 2nd Corps), and the 8th Army was closing in from the East. Also, historically the British presence in Malta caused a significant bottleneck.

In this scenario, Malta is gone, 8th Army is probably already defeated, and Vichy France is either an active German ally, or at the very least, actively resisting Operation Torch beyond the first few days.

[Drake Tungsten]

In this scenario, Malta is gone

You've given no convincing reason why Germany, if Barbarossa had succeeded, would magically be able to take Malta in the face of British and American naval superiority. Taking Malta was hard, the Germans couldn't do it in real life, and defeating the Russians wouldn't have given the Germans any significant advantage in being able to do so.

[BlackCat]

Don't forget how many troops the Germans were able to push into Tunisia in response to Torch, and this was with a fully operational Malta.

Yes, troops that they couldn't keep supplied and troops that ended up surrendering en masse in what was nearly a second Stalingrad.

If the germans no longer has to send aircrafts to the russian front and can send them to africa, then the surrendering will be the opposite. Add a couple of panzer divsions and there won't be any americans left - neither brits.

[BlackCat]

Since the german subs doesn't have to go for both russian and brit convoys, england would probably get in dire troubles soon, so british a surrender could be possible.

[David Floyd]

You've given no convincing reason why Germany, if Barbarossa had succeeded, would magically be able to take Malta in the face of British and American naval superiority. Taking Malta was hard, the Germans couldn't do it in real life, and defeating the Russians wouldn't have given the Germans any significant advantage in being able to do so.

You mean other than being able to establish convincing air superiority over the Central Med?

Due to the terrain of Malta, it couldn't be taken by airborne/glider-borne forces, that is true. However, given a massive effort by the Luftwaffe and full support by the Regina Marina, I fail to see why this would have been impossible.

Yes, I understand that the Luftwaffe didn't have torpedo bombers. But again, I don't see any possible way that the Germans and Italians were incapable of taking Malta, had they truly committed to it.

[Dr Strangelove]

No, but the Italians do, especially once Malta is off the table. Don't forget how many troops the Germans were able to push into Tunisia in response to Torch, and this was with a fully operational Malta.

With how much material lost in transit?

But not in mid 1942.

But soon after.

It will require hundreds of thousands of troops, yes - but it certainly will free up a couple million combat soldiers, and much of the Heer's mobile components.

If the war in the East ends in December of 1941 you're not going to get back many of the men or much of the equipment committed to the campaign. While the diplomats talk German soldiers will suffer frostbite and machines will break. Once the talks end the walk back to Germany will be unbearable.

[David Floyd]

Since the german subs doesn't have to go for both russian and brit convoys, england would probably get in dire troubles soon, so british a surrender could be possible.

Doubt it. German subs weren't all that decisive against the Lend Lease convoys, at least relatively speaking.

If England's going down, trust me, it isn't from U-boats.

[BlackCat]

In this scenario, Malta is gone

You've given no convincing reason why Germany, if Barbarossa had succeeded, would magically be able to take Malta in the face of British and American naval superiority. Taking Malta was hard, the Germans couldn't do it in real life, and defeating the Russians wouldn't have given the Germans any significant advantage in being able to do so.

Malta doesn't need to be taken. taking out the airforce there and preventing new supplies would be enough. Air superiority is the key.

[Drake Tungsten]

You mean other than being able to establish convincing air superiority over the Central Med?

The Germans/Italians bombed the **** out of Malta and its support convoys in real life and they still couldn't break the RAF and RN. More planes wouldn't have made a difference in actually being able to launch an amphibious assault on Malta.

I don't see any possible way that the Germans and Italians were incapable of taking Malta, had they truly committed to it.

They didn't commit to it because it would've been a disaster. It's not like they didn't have a huge incentive to take Malta in real life; they decided not to attempt it because it was too hard.

[David Floyd]

With how much material lost in transit?

Granted. It hinges on Malta. I think that Germany and Italy can take it, given the collapse of the Soviets in mid 1942.

But soon after.

Perhaps. But the Bomber Offensive didn't really get underway until 1943, and it was never really decisive even to the end of the war.

If the war in the East ends in December of 1941 you're not going to get back many of the men or much of the equipment committed to the campaign. While the diplomats talk German soldiers will suffer frostbite and machines will break. Once the talks end the walk back to Germany will be unbearable.

The war ending in December of 1941 - presumably Operation Typhoon succeeding - is too ridiculous to even contemplate. I'm assuming a knockout blow in mid 1942. Granted, maybe not all that much more realistic, but it's mainly a thought experiment - does the US/UK defeat Germany with the Soviets being knocked out of the war by mid 1942?

[BlackCat]

Doubt it. German subs weren't all that decisive against the Lend Lease convoys, at least relatively speaking.

If England's going down, trust me, it isn't from U-boats.

Problem is that the german u-boats actually fought a two front war. If the russian front dissapeared, they would have done severe damage to supplies to the brits.

[David Floyd]

The Germans/Italians bombed the **** out of Malta and its support convoys in real life and they still couldn't break the RAF and RN. More planes wouldn't have made a difference in actually being able to launch an amphibious assault on Malta.

I'm not so sure. If the Germans were able to deploy massive Luftwaffe forces to Sicily and Greece/Crete, they could have worn down though attrition both the RAF/RN. The Italian navy was also not inconsiderable. Had the Italians covered a major invasion force with battleships, supported in turn by the Luftwaffe operating from Sicily, I don't know that the RN could have defeated such a force.

[Dr Strangelove]

Due to the terrain of Malta, it couldn't be taken by airborne/glider-borne forces, that is true. However, given a massive effort by the Luftwaffe and full support by the Regina Marina, I fail to see why this would have been impossible.

I think you under estimate the time and effort redeploying from the Eastern front would have taken. Remember you've got to move crew and machinery as well as the planes themselves. that's not going to happen during a Russian winter. You're not going to even begin significant redeployment until May of 1942, and then you've got to move them thousands of miles and find places to put them.

Regarding the Regina Marina, no one has had that much faith in the RM since the partisan hung Mussolini upside down. If you're depending on the Regina Marina you're really grasping at straws.