World War 2 What If

[David Floyd]

Here's a fun What If, for the military history fans in the room...

If Operation Barbarossa "somehow" succeeded in forcing the Soviets to sue for peace (and, let's just stipulate that this happens, don't focus on the "how"), is it possible for the Western Allies to win the war? Assume that in this scenario, the Soviets are knocked out sometime after December 1941, and that the US has entered the war on schedule.

[OzzyKP]

Are the Soviets completely knocked out or are they able to provide support to either side? Either monetary or traveling through their land or intelligence, etc?

[David Floyd]

Assume that they sue for peace following a complete German victory in Spring/Summer 1942, including the capture of Leningrad, Stalingrad, and Moscow. Stalin is likely no longer in charge, and the Germans strip the Ukraine, the Baltics, and Belarus from the Soviet Union, as well as restoring all of Finland's losses during the Winter War to Finland.

[Drake Tungsten]

America wins, just like in real life.

[giblets]

Sure, we could have used atomic bombs.

[David Floyd]

Yup

Any particular reason why, though?

[Al B. Sure!]

Industrial capacity. The Nazis having to deal with partisans.

[David Floyd]

Atomic bombs weren't available until 8/45. What does the US do between 12/41 and 8/45? They can't, politically speaking, sit on their hands. Do the US/Britain invade Norway? Go through a Mediterranean campaign of some sort?

Does Germany have a chance at a negotiated peace in the West in this scenario?

[giblets]

Atomic bombs weren't available until 8/45. What does the US do between 12/41 and 8/45?

Push back Japan, take North Africa.

[David Floyd]

Push back Japan, take North Africa.

Isn't Germany able to devote far more forces to North Africa? For that matter, why can't Germany and Italy take down Malta in the summer of 1942? That would eliminate the main logistical problem in shipping supplies to North Africa. Combine that with the transfer of an entire Luftflotte to Sicily and an additional Panzerarmee to North Africa, and I'm not so sure it's a walk in the park campaign for the Allies.

[giblets]

Isn't Germany able to devote far more forces to North Africa? For that matter, why can't Germany and Italy take down Malta in the summer of 1942? That would eliminate the main logistical problem in shipping supplies to North Africa. Combine that with the transfer of an entire Luftflotte to Sicily and an additional Panzerarmee to North Africa, and I'm not so sure it's a walk in the park campaign for the Allies.

So I guess it would give the Allies something to do, and it wouldn't look like they were sitting on their hands.

[OzzyKP]

Assume that they sue for peace following a complete German victory in Spring/Summer 1942, including the capture of Leningrad, Stalingrad, and Moscow. Stalin is likely no longer in charge, and the Germans strip the Ukraine, the Baltics, and Belarus from the Soviet Union, as well as restoring all of Finland's losses during the Winter War to Finland.

I guess my question is whether they become a client state of the Nazis or pledge materials and/or support as part of their capitulation?

The west, imho, absolutely couldn't survive vs. Germany, Japan & USSR working together.

So if that happens in spring/summer 1942, that is right when the US is landing in North Africa, right? My main questions would be how much of the Soviet-Nazi fighting in our timeline was done before that point vs. after that point. How much of a piece did the Soviets take out of Germany up until their surrender? How many troops would Germany have to switch to the western front? How long would it take to switch gears?

Would they take the UK and throw the allies out of Africa/mideast before we got the bomb? Would that hamper our delivery of the bomb when we get it? If they weren't under such pressure at home would that accelerate their own pursuit of the bomb? What about other technological programs of theirs?

[David Floyd]

The problem is, this scenario has the ingredients for "Massive Defeat" for the Allies, if they try an "on schedule" Operation Torch in 11/42. They certainly can't try it any earlier, from both a force structure and logistics standpoint. But if Panzerarmee Afrika is substantially reinforced, and Malta falls, the British 8th Army could be decisively defeated by that time. And if that's the case - or even if it isn't quite the case, but the Germans are substantially stronger - don't you think Vichy France would be strongly in the German camp, and fully resist any Allied landing?

[Dr Strangelove]

Isn't Germany able to devote far more forces to North Africa? For that matter, why can't Germany and Italy take down Malta in the summer of 1942? That would eliminate the main logistical problem in shipping supplies to North Africa. Combine that with the transfer of an entire Luftflotte to Sicily and an additional Panzerarmee to North Africa, and I'm not so sure it's a walk in the park campaign for the Allies.

The Germans don't really have the naval capacity to support North Africa. The Luftwaffe will be needed to fend off the combined US/British air forces. Occupying western Russia will require far more troops than the Germans plan on. Once US aid starts arriving the Soviet Union will re-enter the war.

[David Floyd]

I guess my question is whether they become a client state of the Nazis or pledge materials and/or support as part of their capitulation?

Client state, no. Materials/resources, probably, particularly oil.

The west, imho, absolutely couldn't survive vs. Germany, Japan & USSR working together.

I'm not so sure. Japan was inconsequential, and the only thing the USSR would have been contributing was oil. Thus it's really down to US/UK vs. Germany.

So if that happens in spring/summer 1942, that is right when the US is landing in North Africa, right? My main questions would be how much of the Soviet-Nazi fighting in our timeline was done before that point vs. after that point. How much of a piece did the Soviets take out of Germany up until their surrender? How many troops would Germany have to switch to the western front? How long would it take to switch gears?

Well, obviously much of the Heer would be in need of major refit, but I don't think it's a stretch to assume the Heer could substantially reinforce North Africa, while the Luftwaffe/Regina Marina, supported by German airborne troops and Italian army forces could take out Malta.

Would they take the UK and throw the allies out of Africa/mideast before we got the bomb?

Oh, I think they absolutely had the potential to throw the UK out of Africa. The Middle East? Not so much - Britain would be falling back on freakin' India, while the Germans would be advancing beyond their supplies, across desert roads. Logistically, no way does Germany go much beyond Egypt.

Would that hamper our delivery of the bomb when we get it?

In what way?

If they weren't under such pressure at home would that accelerate their own pursuit of the bomb?

No. Heisenberg had already concluded it was impossible. A German atomic bomb was a pipe dream at best.

What about other technological programs of theirs?

Such as?