Is China's One Child policy eugenic?

[Heraclitus]

Re post 28, you do realize those parts were written by two different people?

Just skimmed the article. Didn't notice.


However the first statment still stands. If we can say the Chinese never claimed superiority over anyone we may as well say the same of the Romans or British.

[Ben Kenobi]

Eugenics does not require concepts of racial superiority, although Margaret Sanger and Planned Parenthood still follow the same model as the early 20th century folks who saw things exactly that way.

The one child policy would be eugenic if it favoured city folks, ie, gave them a higher quota. As it is it likely exhibits 'passive' eugenic traits, particularly as it restricts fertility. The ultimate result will be the elimination of the Chinese race within a few generations.

It's spectacularly bad policy given their population characteristics. Japan is probably past the point of no return (average age of 42), but China is still at 33 at the moment. US is at 36.5 and Canada at 39.5

[VetLegion]

I remember reading that the Chinese officials "encouraged" Yao Ming's father to
marry his mother. That the party wanted to marry tall people to other tall people
in order to produce more basketball players.

I don't know if the story is true. People naturally tend to like people who are similar
to them, so it could be fabricated.

But something like that wouldn't surprise me coming from the Chinese.

[Maniac]

However the first statment still stands. If we can say the Chinese never claimed superiority over anyone we may as well say the same of the Romans or British.

Of course. Chinese are idiots and hypocrits on nationalism- and history-related matters.

[Heraclitus]

Eugenics does not require concepts of racial superiority, although Margaret Sanger and Planned Parenthood still follow the same model as the early 20th century folks who saw things exactly that way.

The one child policy would be eugenic if it favoured city folks, ie, gave them a higher quota. As it is it likely exhibits 'passive' eugenic traits, particularly as it restricts fertility. The ultimate result will be the elimination of the Chinese race within a few generations.

It's spectacularly bad policy given their population characteristics. Japan is probably past the point of no return (average age of 42), but China is still at 33 at the moment. US is at 36.5 and Canada at 39.5

Ben where exactly are the Chinese supposed to get the land to support themselves? They are already practically colonizing Africa (they buy land and then import labourers from china who then settle there).


Also won't their birthrate return to normal as soon as they lift the restriction?

[Kitschum]

Actually, China's TFR doesn't look too bad compared to a lot of Europe.

[Heraclitus]

Actually, China's TFR doesn't look too bad compared to a lot of Europe.

I don't quite see how a state enforced policy is comparable to what can be describet as practicaly voluntary extinction.


I remember hearing that the entire world had Germany's brith and death rate humanity would be gone by the year 3000.

[Kitschum]

The "policy" or lack of it is not comparable, but the situation is. And looking at the demographic situation, China is "better" off than Germany.

China has loosened its policy, and it never was that strict anyway. Rural dwellers and ethnic minorities could always have more than one child. Besides, it would still have dropped on account of socio-economic reasons alone.

It's interesting how some of the worst "hit" Eastern European countries, such as Russia and Ukraine are slowly rebounding. Question is, where it'll stop, at a level of France or above, which should be sustainable, or at a perpetual decline?

Edit: Death rate obviously doesn't matter in the long run, except for mothers and infants.

[Heraclitus]

The death rate does matter because of productivity! Many of the countries that are near replacement level in Europe do so via a generous welfare state, something you can't quite run in a poor country... sure one might argue that a high death rate is an indicator of more dead old people which is good for the goverment budget but that is not the case, for an example take how Russians are drinking themselves to death en masse.

[Kitschum]

I'm not sure I buy the "generous welfare state" idea. Does France have more generous welfare than Germany, for instance?

And besides that, third world countries are much "better" off than the states at the forefront of modernity, and many do it without a semblance of a welfare state. For Allah's sake, Afghanistan has a TFR of about 7 IIRC.

Russians do drink themselves to death, but at what age? It's the 15-35 y/o cohort (for women) that is important.

[Heraclitus]

Good point, it may be more of a cultural thing even within Europe itself.

[Ben Kenobi]

Death rate simply means you need a higher birthrate to sustain the population.

[Ben Kenobi]

Ben where exactly are the Chinese supposed to get the land to support themselves? They are already practically colonizing Africa (they buy land and then import labourers from china who then settle there).

There's plenty of land in china.

Also won't their birthrate return to normal as soon as they lift the restriction?

No. It's never occurred anywhere in the world, once it drops below about 1.8 or so. The policy has been in place for too long now to be easily changed.

China's workforce should be ok for the next while, mostly because they still have a 55/45 rural to urban split. What will gradually happen is the transition to urbanisation similar to what we see in the USA to about 75/25 urban to rural. That means even as the population is contracting, internal migration will sustain economic growth.

Long term, the effects are not good. Worldwide the TFR is down to about 2.4 or so now, which is not much above replacement. I anticipate within 10 years, we'll be talking about TFR below 2.1, and long-term worldwide population declines.

[Kitschum]

Death rate simply means you need a higher birthrate to sustain the population.

Not necessarily.

[Heraclitus]

I wonder does the Chinese eugenic policy actually work? What are the birth defect rates in the last 15 years? (I'm guessing they went up because of polution)