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  • Afghanistan's cost could exceed Iraq's

    You know, I don't what to say anymore. I can say this, I won't be around long enough to worry about the bulk of the costs we're incurring. Couple this with the bail outs and just think about it.
    Throw in that the USA is trying their best to persuade Afghanistan to cease production of their number 1 income, opium poppies.
    So we'll end up adopting them for eternity.

    As the Obama administration expands U.S. involvement in Afghanistan, military experts are warning that the United States is taking on security and political commitments that will last at least a decade and a cost that will probably eclipse that of the Iraq war.

    Since the invasion of Afghanistan eight years ago, the United States has spent $223 billion on war-related funding for that country, according to the Congressional Research Service. Aid expenditures, excluding the cost of combat operations, have grown exponentially, from $982 million in 2003 to $9.3 billion last year.

    The costs are almost certain to keep growing. The Obama administration is in the process of overhauling the U.S. approach to Afghanistan, putting its focus on long-term security, economic sustainability and development. That approach is also likely to require deployment of more American military personnel, at the very least to train additional Afghan security forces.

    Later this month, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, is expected to present his analysis of the situation in the country. The analysis could prompt an increase in U.S. troop levels to help implement President Obama's new strategy.

    ‘Years to come’
    Military experts insist that the additional resources are necessary. But many, including some advising McChrystal, say they fear the public has not been made aware of the significant commitments that come with Washington's new policies.

    "We will need a large combat presence for many years to come, and we will probably need a large financial commitment longer than that," said Stephen Biddle, a senior fellow for defense policy at the Council on Foreign Relations and a member of the "strategic assessment" team advising McChrystal. The expansion of the Afghan security force that the general will recommend to secure the country "will inevitably cost much more than any imaginable Afghan government is going to be able to afford on its own," Biddle added.

    "Afghan forces will need $4 billion a year for another decade, with a like sum for development," said Bing West, a former assistant secretary of defense and combat Marine who has chronicled the Iraq and Afghan wars. Bing said the danger is that Congress is "so generous in support of our own forces today, it may not support the aid needed for progress in Afghanistan tomorrow."

    Some members of Congress are worried. The House Appropriations Committee said in its report on the fiscal 2010 defense appropriations bill that its members are "concerned about the prospects for an open-ended U.S. commitment to bring stability to a country that has a decades-long history of successfully rebuffing foreign military intervention and attempts to influence internal politics."

    The Afghan government has made some political and military progress since 2001, but the Taliban insurgency has been reinvigorated.

    Anthony H. Cordesman, another member of McChrystal's advisory group and a national security expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told reporters recently that even with military gains in the next 12 to 18 months, it would take years to reduce sharply the threat from the Taliban and other insurgent forces.

    The task that the United States has taken on in Afghanistan is in many ways more difficult than the one it has encountered in Iraq, where the U.S. government has spent $684 billion in war-related funding.

    In a 2008 study that ranked the weakest states in the developing world, the Brookings Institution rated Afghanistan second only to Somalia. Afghanistan's gross domestic product in 2008 was $23 billion, with about $3 billion coming from opium production, according to the CIA's World Factbook. Oil-producing Iraq had a GDP of $113 billion.

    Afghanistan's central government takes in roughly $890 million in annual revenue, according to the World Factbook. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has pointed out that Afghanistan's national budget cannot support the $2 billion needed today for the country's army and police force.

    Dutch Army Brig. Gen. Tom Middendorp, commander of the coalition task force in Afghanistan's southern Uruzgan province, described the region as virtually prehistoric.

    "It's the poorest province of one of the poorest countries in the world. And if you walk through that province, it's like walking through the Old Testament," Middendorp told reporters recently. "There is enormous illiteracy in the province. More than 90 percent cannot write or read. So it's very basic, what you do there. And they have had 30 years of conflict."
    Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
    "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
    He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

  • #2
    IMO, if it's costing that much, we're going about it the wrong way.

    They're dirt poor, so should be able to be persuaded cheaply.
    I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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    • #3
      Yeah well, outfitting and supporting troops, to say nothing of aircraft and bombs, ships off the coast, support personnel that are 10-1, FUEL. It gets expensive.
      Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
      "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
      He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

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      • #4
        What he is saying, I think, is that if we went in there and just built stuff up, and didn't use all the expensive military things, it would be a lot cheaper.

        Basically, buy them off. We have so much more money then them, we spend more then everyone's wealth combined on the troops there. How is that reasonable?

        JM
        Jon Miller-
        I AM.CANADIAN
        GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

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        • #5
          It would have been more effective, seriusly all America really needed to do was build four good cities to live in ensure they have effective police and each of them a military base. They connect them by building a railway and offering people cheap tickets to travel between the cities. Also add huge tax breaks to companies that employ only women (they could sell this as an Islamic thing since it would encourage segregation, but it would really empower the women since it would ensure a large demand for female employees, it would also create environments where women would be seen without their burkas not just be grilfriends and family but coworkers (albeit all female)). Also provide subsidized internet connections in the 4 cities, while distributing low end computers (for "educational purposes"), stripe all internet censorship laws and watch how the West's culture (and Japanese p0rn) steals a generation of Afgan children from the archaic culture.

          Subsidize any businesses in the cities and offer people cash prizes for selling their land and moving into the city. The land would then be sold to a corporation set up for this purpose that would get subsidies from to US and would be used to grow poppies for morphine.

          Then also offer a free "emigrate to America with a fake identity we provide and 500$" card for all abused women under the condition they divorce their husbands and for anyone who wishes to convert to another religion.


          In 10 years or so they offer the same deal the new cities got to Kabul and connect it to the train network too. By 2020 more than 50% of Afghanistan population would be urban.

          Urban means > easier to enforce education of women, easier to escape traditional limitations, lower birth rate > less religious populace


          The train network would mix up Afghanistans ethnic groups.

          This combined with a higher standard of living and the drop in poppie production used for drugs would mean a decline of the political power of Islam unprecedented in history.
          Modern man calls walking more quickly in the same direction down the same road “change.”
          The world, in the last three hundred years, has not changed except in that sense.
          The simple suggestion of a true change scandalizes and terrifies modern man. -Nicolás Gómez Dávila

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Jon Miller View Post
            What he is saying, I think, is that if we went in there and just built stuff up, and didn't use all the expensive military things, it would be a lot cheaper.
            Except you need all the expensive military things to keep the insurgents from blowing up the stuff you built.

            Basically, buy them off. We have so much more money then them, we spend more then everyone's wealth combined on the troops there. How is that reasonable?
            How much money would it take to convert you to a Taliban way of life?


            JM
            Weez
            "I have never killed a man, but I have read many obituaries with great pleasure." - Clarence Darrow
            "I didn't attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it." - Mark Twain

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            • #7
              Hera - What exactly are the displaced farmers doing while confined in your four cities? Under your plan I see a nation of farmers shuttling between cities (how are we securing the rail links?) for some unknown reason.
              "I have never killed a man, but I have read many obituaries with great pleasure." - Clarence Darrow
              "I didn't attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it." - Mark Twain

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              • #8
                And who is growing the food? The USA, Canada and GB? Boy, that sounds cheaper.
                Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
                "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
                He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Heraclitus View Post
                  Also provide subsidized internet connections in the 4 cities, while distributing low end computers (for "educational purposes"), stripe all internet censorship laws and watch how the West's culture (and Japanese p0rn) steals a generation of Afgan children from the archaic culture.
                  So strategic hamlets with high speed internet porn?

                  Seriously though, the Soviets controlled the all the cities and major highways, but it didn't do them much good. Afghans are as intelligent as any of us in the West and extremely sensitive to any attempts at imposing an alien culture on them. And don't mess with their women if you want to make friends.

                  Edit: I do agree with lots and lots of bribes, and building trust. And abandon the anti-drug strategy which runs counter to the "make friends" strategy.

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                  • #10
                    It funds the Taliban though. Opium poppies are really good for that.

                    It's just going to take time. Fix stuff up, rebuild the cities and keep stomping on the Taliban in the east and in Pakistan.
                    Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
                    "Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
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                    • #11
                      We can't just stop opium production without a suggestion of something that can take it's place in the economy. We're not talking about a really lush environment. No booming manufacturing. Not much.
                      Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
                      "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
                      He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by SlowwHand View Post
                        And who is growing the food? The USA, Canada and GB? Boy, that sounds cheaper.
                        Actually, most countries do find it cheaper to have US grow the food/etc.

                        A lot of countries have laws to make it so that we can't sell them food cheaply, and countries that don't (Japan maybe?) rely heavily upon us for food.

                        JM
                        Jon Miller-
                        I AM.CANADIAN
                        GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Wezil View Post
                          Except you need all the expensive military things to keep the insurgents from blowing up the stuff you built.
                          You can buy off the insurgents. It would be a less tenuous enterprise than the moderately successful Anbar model (since we don't have to worry about petro politics).
                          "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                          -Bokonon

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Ben Kenobi View Post
                            It funds the Taliban though. Opium poppies are really good for that.
                            It funds the anti-taliban as well, the farmers, the criminals, the police chiefs and the warlords. I think opium's importance for funding the Taliban is overrated. Donations and other sources of income are just as important.

                            It's just going to take time. Fix stuff up, rebuild the cities and keep stomping on the Taliban in the east and in Pakistan.
                            Trying to do all things at once makes for inconsistent policy and dispersed resources. You can't talk to the farmer about peace, prosperity and co-operation when you're burning his fields (or eyeing his daughter ). Maybe it's part of the problem. ISAF doesn't know what it wants to accomplish the most?

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Ramo View Post
                              You can buy off the insurgents. It would be a less tenuous enterprise than the moderately successful Anbar model (since we don't have to worry about petro politics).
                              Good luck with that.

                              I ask you the same question as earlier - How much money would convince you to take up the Taliban way of life? What would stop you from converting back after you have the money?
                              "I have never killed a man, but I have read many obituaries with great pleasure." - Clarence Darrow
                              "I didn't attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it." - Mark Twain

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