Healthcare Reform Thread II

[Drake Tungsten]

Not really. A black man was the hero in Night of the Living Dead...

[Drake Tungsten]

Snowe defected today. Unfortunate, if not unexpected.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091013/ap_on_go_co/us_health_care_overhaul

[DinoDoc]

Snowe defected today. Unfortunate, if not unexpected.

Shocking.

[DaShi]

I read that as defecated. I need sleep.

[Ramo]

It's amusing that the the righties have suddenly decided to ignore the existence of the CBO ever since the SFC bill was scored.

[Drake Tungsten]

What got voted on today is the Chairman's Mark; we'll have to wait and see what the resulting bill looks like. Hopefully the CBO will have time to score it before a vote takes place...

[Drake Tungsten]

There may be just one Republican member of the entire Congress who publicly states her support for health care legislation. And that member may stress that her vote could change as the legislation is modified. But the White House is already claiming a small victory in achieving bipartisan consensus for reform

"Sure," said spokesman Robert Gibbs, when asked if Sen. Olympia Snowe's (R-ME) decision to vote for the Senate Finance Committee bill meant the legislation had bipartisan support.

"We have today a bipartisan bill," he offered later. "So we seem to have checked both boxes [bipartisanship and a bill that enhances choice and competition.]"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/10/13/gibbs-we-have-today-a-bip_n_319001.html

[Ramo]

There's no way a vote in either chamber would be held before a CBO score.

[Drake Tungsten]

I hope you're right.

[Ben Kenobi]

Man, SNOWE's (R) sure goes a long way. Has she ever voted with her party?

[Zkribbler]

I've always had more respect for legislators who vote on the basis of what's good for their constituents and good for the nation rather than those who robotically follow the party line.

[Straybow]

[Q=Ramo;5690942]It's amusing that the the righties have suddenly decided to ignore the existence of the CBO ever since the SFC bill was scored. [/Q] We ignore CBO whenever there isn't any legislative text to be scored, but somehow they come up with a figure anyway.

[DinoDoc]

It's amusing that the the righties have suddenly decided to ignore the existence of the CBO ever since the SFC bill was scored.

CBO on the Baucus Plan
The CBO blog on the health plan du jour:
the Chairman’s proposal would reduce the federal deficit by $16 billion in 2019, CBO and JCT estimate. After that, the added revenues and cost savings are projected to grow more rapidly than the cost of the coverage expansion. Consequently, CBO expects that the proposal, if enacted, would reduce federal budget deficits over the ensuing decade relative to those projected under current law, with a total effect during that decade that is in a broad range around one-half percent of GDP....

These projections assume that the proposals are enacted and remain unchanged throughout the next two decades, which is often not the case for major legislation. For example, the sustainable growth rate (SGR) mechanism governing Medicare’s payments to physicians has frequently been modified (either through legislation or administrative action) to avoid reductions in those payments. The projected savings for the Chairman’s proposal reflect the cumulative impact of a number of specifications that would constrain payment rates for providers of Medicare services. The long-term budgetary impact could be quite different if those provisions were ultimately changed or not fully implemented.
In other words, the plan would reduce the deficit if it were carried out as written, but there is good reason based on historical experience to be skeptical that it would be.

Let me try to put CBO's point in a more familiar setting:

Your friend Joe, who says he wants to lose weight, asks you for an extra slice of pie after dinner. Naturally, you are doubtful about the wisdom of the request.

"Ahem, Joe," you whisper, "Aren't there a lot of calories in that?"

"Yes," he says, "but the pie is part of a larger plan. I am committed not only to eating that slice of pie but also to going to the gym every day for the next week and spending at least half a hour on the treadmill. The exercise will more than work off those extra calories."

"But that's what you said last week, when you asked for an extra piece of cake. And you never made it to the gym."

"Yes, I know," Joe replies ruefully, "but this time I really mean it....Can you please pass the pie?"

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/09/cbo-on-baucus-plan.html

[Ramo]

Yes, I realize that's your talking point of the day. An $81 billion decrease in the ten year deficit and the estimate that revenues/savings grow much faster than the increase in expenditures is magically going to completely change when the plain English that the SFC always uses to draft legislation gets converted into legislative language. Keep believing that.

[Ramo]

In other words, the plan would reduce the deficit if it were carried out as written, but there is good reason based on historical experience to be skeptical that it would be.

That's nonsense. The Medicare savings in the mark are generally what the stakeholders agreed to when the Admin was bargaining with them to buy their support (or at least buy off their opposition). It isn't a unilateral imposition, and is therefore unlikely to be overturned. If anything, Congress is upset with the timidness of these deals and might go further.