Marriage, Gays, and Atheists

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Jon Miller
So you are saying that when marriage was more common, those correlations were not seen?

JM

Non sequitur.

[Naked Gents Rut]

Selection effects.

I agree.

The people who create stable marriages in this day and age would've done so even without tax incentives.

[Jon Miller]

Well, that is one conclusion. Another conclusion is that we have less people (now) of the type that are more likely to be good parents/take good care of their finances/health/etc.

JM

[KrazyHorse]

I don't understand what you're getting at, Jon.

[KrazyHorse]

Are you suggesting that society now is poorer, less healthy and less happy than previously, Jon?

I'm going to have to object to this assertion.

[Jon Miller]

So we have some correlations (healthier/etc) with married people. You pointed out (and I agree that it could be true) that it is the type of people who get married which results in those correlations (healthier/etc).

At some previous era, more people got married.

So in this past era were the correlations observed (health/etc) among married people weaker? Or were there more people of the type which results in these correlations?

It has already been noted that financial benefits do modify behavior. It doesn't make financial sense for well off people to have children currently, and so less well off people are having children.

JM

[Jon Miller]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Are you suggesting that society now is poorer, less healthy and less happy than previously, Jon?

I'm going to have to object to this assertion.

I didn't even suggest that this was a possible conclusion from your hypothesis, although I will agree it is.

JM
(I also don't think it is the correct conclusion)

[KrazyHorse]

So in this past era were the correlations observed (health/etc) among married people weaker? Or were there more people of the type which results in these correlations?

These are not the only two choices. The correlation can get stronger as you include more people in the married group, even given a constant distribution of health, happiness etc. That is a statement about skewness of distribution of those qualities.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Jon Miller
Well, that is one conclusion. Another conclusion is that we have less people (now) of the type that are more likely to be good parents/take good care of their finances/health/etc.

JM

I would suggest, given the demographic data from the early years of this republic, that you're wrong.

[KrazyHorse]

I didn't understand what you were asserting, Jon. I was asking that to zero in on your proposed test of selection effects as major source of correlation.

[Jon Miller]

I agree, my feel for it was that the difference in % population wasn't enough for that... but I could be completely wrong about that (I definitely don't remember numbers).

That still leaves my argument about the observed decrease in child bearing among well off people.

JM

[OneFootInTheGrave]

[SIZE=1]

And in case he missed this, I would ensure that whatever we teach in school to young children about gays and lesbians would be age appropriate.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Jon Miller
That still leaves my argument about the observed decrease in child bearing among well off people.

?

You mean a decrease as time goes of fertility among upper classes?

The expectation among the upper classes of the ability of women to have careers seems to me to be the primary reason behind this. Not the decline in marriage as an institution (which is also likely caused, in part, by this)

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
?

You mean a decrease as time goes of fertility among upper classes?

The expectation among the upper classes of the ability of women to have careers seems to me to be the primary reason behind this. Not the decline in marriage as an institution (which is also likely caused, in part, by this)

It also has to do with the problem noted by Asher, that kids are an enormous cost, and by limiting the number of children, you can minimize the costs and maximize the amount of resources spent on fewer children.

[KrazyHorse]

Returns to investment in human capital have increased, yes. That is the materialist reasoning. But I think there is a lot of normative behaviour modification going on.