Something is rotten in the state of Alaska?

[BlackCat]

Ok, that makes sense - just out of curiosity - did they do it before or after it was obvious who would win based upon what would be a reasonable estimate on the remaining voters.

[Tuberski]

It wasn't called until 8pm PST.

But it was obvious well before then.

ACK!

[Ben Kenobi]

I would have argued that they were premature in calling it, but McCain was substantially down in the states that he had to win in order to win the election.

Myself, I called it about an hour later after the returns showed that Florida was holding and Ohio wasn't going to flip.

[KrazyHorse]

My guess: Ben Kenobi is saying some stuff about US politics which demonstrates a fundamental ignorance of same.

[Tuberski]

I can quote him if you'd like.......

ACK!

[BlackCat]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
My guess: Ben Kenobi is saying some stuff about US politics which demonstrates a fundamental ignorance of same.

Nope, not in this case - he just had some wet dreams that wasn't fulfilled.

Well, not quite true - fantasies about that things could have been different if teh truth hadn't been revealed too early.


Only problem is that it would be impossible unless the remaining voters went crazy

[Ben Kenobi]

Nope, not in this case - he just had some wet dreams that wasn't fulfilled.

Well, not quite true - fantasies about that things could have been different if teh truth hadn't been revealed too early.

Only problem is that it would be impossible unless the remaining voters went crazy

It was disappointing, but yeah I figured he lost by about 630 PST or so, which is an hour and a half before they called it for Obama.

I was at work, and missed most of the festivities, which was a shame. I figured it would be a long night, but that certainly wasn't the case.

[-Jrabbit]

BlackCat -- The network news organizations call the election on a state-by-state basis, based primarily on actual votes as they come in. Essentially, when it becomes (however nebulously) "clear" who will win a given state, they declare it so. Electoral votes for the called states are tracked. First to 270 wins.

There has always been a fair amount of controversy on this practice over the years, as there's an understandable tendency to call the obvious, high margin states even when very few actual ballots have been counted. It can kind of take the fun out of things for folks out West.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


McCain lost 7 million conservatives. That plus the fact that the election was called early explains the depressed turnout.

You see similar effects in Washington, Oregon and California.

1) Dropoffs in those 3 states were nowhere near the magnitude of the 30% dropoff in Alaska (about 10% down in WA and OR, about 18% in CA).

2) Conservatives staying home would have handed Alaska's closely-fought House and Senate races to the Democrats. That's not what happened.

[DanS]

This reliance on the "we were robbed" theme by the Democratic Party is pathetic and introduces a victim complex into American politics.

Besides, it cuts both ways. If you attempt to reduce the legitimacy of a win by your opponent, your own wins are deligitimized.

[Ben Kenobi]

1) Dropoffs in those 3 states were nowhere near the magnitude of the 30% dropoff in Alaska (about 10% down in WA and OR, about 18% in CA).

2) Conservatives staying home would have handed Alaska's closely-fought House and Senate races to the Democrats. That's not what happened.

The state is so red, the only reason the races were close is because of the drop in turnout.

As for the difference in the ratio, Alaska is another 2 times zones to the west of the pacific, so the election call comes two hours earlier. You would expect to see depressed turnout higher in Alaska then elsewhere.

[Ben Kenobi]

This reliance on the "we were robbed" theme by the Democratic Party is pathetic and introduces a victim complex into American politics.

Besides, it cuts both ways. If you attempt to reduce the legitimacy of a win by your opponent, your own wins are deligitimized.

Exactly.

Thank you DanS.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by DanS
This reliance on the "we were robbed" theme by the Democratic Party is pathetic and introduces a victim complex into American politics.

Besides, it cuts both ways. If you attempt to reduce the legitimacy of a win by your opponent, your own wins are deligitimized.

Dan, are you denying that there is some odd stuff going on in the numbers out of Alaska? I don't necessarily think there was fraud. I just think that there is enough strangeness to warrant a real look at the data.

[FrostyBoy]

never mind McCain and Palin, they're no longer important, (although Obama should seriously look into fixing some of Alaska's problems now that they're out in the open). the fight is over, time to move on.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse


Dan, are you denying that there is some odd stuff going on in the numbers out of Alaska? I don't necessarily think there was fraud. I just think that there is enough strangeness to warrant a real look at the data.

Exactly. Nobody's saying it's obvious fraud, but you'd have to be willfully blind not to notice something deeply weird about the Alaska numbers.

@ BK - Ben, those races were not close because of a drop in turnout. Those races were polling dead even before election day -- and this year, the polls were largely right. In the other dead-heat races where voter turnout dropped, the races broke for the Dems (WA governor, OR Senate, WA-08; CA-04 remains uncalled). Logically, a bigger drop in turnout would have exaggerated that effect. But in Alaska, the drop appears to have benefited the GOP -- a fact without precedent in this year's results or previous analogous instances, and a fact that doesn't really make any other kind of sense.

It's a glaring anomaly, and as such bears scrutiny. That's all.