Something is rotten in the state of Alaska?

[Swissy]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Well I do think that part of it is that Obama won so early in the evening, depressing turnout in Alaska. 2004 was very, very close.

When the first battleground states were called it was around 5pm in Alaska, so perhaps that may have cut some turnout.

Voter fraud is diffiocult to prove, even harder in Alaska where the Federal Prosecutor was handpicked by Stevens.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Tuberski


No, I'm saying weather isn't a factor.

It was worse in 2004, and there was greater turnout.

ACK!

I know, it was a poor attempt at humor.

I'm from Minnesota and I love a good blizzard, so I'd imagine someone further up in Alaska would prefer it over anything else.

[Swissy]

Re: Something is rotten in the state of Alaska?

Originally posted by Thue
The huge disparity between opinion polls and results, which matched perfectly everywhere else in the US, is very distinctive.

The disparity is explainable. Most polls had the Senate race 1-3 pts either way before the conviction. Polls after the conviction could be tainted; many people wouldn't go on record as supporting Stevens because of the conviction, even though they had every intention of voting for him.

[Dinner]

It seems that an unusually high number of votes got invalidated for one reason or another. Even if there was a good reason for votes to get tossed out this should still be looked at just to make sure things are above board.

[Victor Galis]

Even if it's not fraud, it would be worth figuring out why because it's interesting. We might learn something about voter participation (or we might learn Alaska is wierd).

[BlackCat]

Originally posted by Victor Galis
or we might learn Alaska is wierd.

I thought that was an already proven fact ? I mean, it's at same latitude as Canada.

[Chemical Ollie]

is SpaceUS still living in Alaska? Haven't seen post here him in a while.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Well I do think that part of it is that Obama won so early in the evening, depressing turnout in Alaska. 2004 was very, very close.

I disagree, or at least disagree that that was a significant part of so large a drop.

First, the early call alone wouldn't be enough to account for that sharp a drop-off; see 1980 for a comparison.

Second, logically, if calling the election early in the evening caused voters to stay home, the voters who would have done so would have been casual participants who were not very excited by the presidential race and not very invested in the other races. These voters would have been overwhelmingly Republican; Obama voters were fired up, and Alaska Democrats were jonesing to win the Senate and House races. Under those circumstances, Democrats would have benefited down-ticket. This does not appear to have happened.

Third, in the previous example we have of an early call causing voters to stay at home (1980), the voters who did so were those planning to vote for the ticket declared defeated. Thus, if an early call had suppressed votes on Tuesday, it should have boosted the fortunes of the Alaska Democrats, just as that early call in 1980 benefited GOP races down-ticket on the West Coast. Again, the opposite seems to have happened here.

Edit: Fourth, an early call could only potentially discourage those voters planning to vote in during the last 2 hours the polls were open (the race was called at 11:00 EST, Alaska polls closed at 1:00 EST). It strains credulity to suggest that, on the biggest election day in a generation, in a place where days get dark and cold early, a huge number of Alaskans were putting off voting until the last minute.

I still don't have a tinfoil hat on, but agree with Victor that it bears scrutiny, if only because it might teach us something we don't know about voter behavior.

Still, man oh man, it sure looks like fraud.

[Bosh]

Let's keep in mind that this is the state where a group of law makers had official Corrupt Bastard Caucus hats made for themselves. I'm usually very leery of claims of vote fraud, but Alaskan politics are deeply ****ed up. At the very least this should be investigated, it doesn't make sense for a ticket with Palin on it to get so many fewer votes than Bush in 2004.

[Ben Kenobi]

Obviously, since it's seat number 60 on the senate.

[Ben Kenobi]

At the very least this should be investigated, it doesn't make sense for a ticket with Palin on it to get so many fewer votes than Bush in 2004.

McCain lost 7 million conservatives. That plus the fact that the election was called early explains the depressed turnout.

You see similar effects in Washington, Oregon and California.

[Bosh]

Also BK does not believe that anything untoward happened, therefore some bad **** went down.

[Ben Kenobi]

Also BK does not believe that anything untoward happened, therefore some bad **** went down.

You think I like Stevens? It's a fact. McCain's turnout dropped precipitously on the coast.

That didn't take long though. 1 day and the liberals are whining about voter fraud.

You won, get over it.

[BlackCat]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
the election was called early

For a non canuck/yanky/brit - can you please explain this expression ? What I think it means doesn't quite fit

[Ben Kenobi]

For a non canuck/yanky/brit - can you please explain this expression ? What I think it means doesn't quite fit

It's an idiom.

The media usually "calls" an election, which means they declare the winner. They are making a prediction that Obama will be the winner.

In this context, the election was declared before all the voting in Alaska and CA was done. IIRC, the networks called it about 6 PST, which is well before the polls close.