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Originally posted by snoopy369
It doesn't make BUSINESS sense (because the ROI is too long - it will eventually pay off, but not any time soon). This is why a BUSINESS hasn't done it yet.
It doesn't mean there aren't reasons for you to want it anyway... that's why the government should do it.
The project has to make sense on a monetary basis. The passenger math presented is the most important factor, but there may be other factors at play.
As an example, I have been a supporter of subways in some cities, even though the passenger math is marginal, because subways increase real estate values, in turn increasing real estate tax receipts. Subways could even be a luxury, but still make sense from a local standpoint. (NB: But maybe not from a national level, so it doesn't make sense to go to the Feds with hat in hand too much.)
But sometimes they don't make sense at all, and the passenger math is a good indication of when this is so. For an extreme instance, you wouldn't put a subway system in a town of 5,000 people.
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
The plan has to not be BONKERS on a monetary basis. The whole reason it would be a governmental project and not a free-market business is that it doesn't have a certain or soon RoI monetarily, but it has significant RoI when you factor in externalities and social costs to the current system.
If the government didn't operate that way, we wouldn't have a government ...
edit: Actually, rereading your post, you seem to ... agree with me entirely. I'm saying the government has reasons to do it a business wouldn't (both costs like pollution, and gains like real estate price increases). So now I'm confused...
<Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.
You seriously think the california government can actually get around to planning and starting serious building this within <1 year? I think you are underestimating the ability of morons to be morons ...
You have to:
Sell bonds
Decide who gets to decide who to decide what happens
Decide which of the rail lines will be built first
Decide who gets to build it
Decide which endangered species to wipe out with your tunnel through their habitat
....
I'm at work, so it's a shorter list than it would be otherwise ... but some of those decisions alone will take months (particularly #2)...
<Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.
snoopy: It has to make good business sense broadly construed. Just leave the question of private versus public out of this.
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
Originally posted by DanS
Thanks. And how much money do these tend to run one-way?
Edit: Let's say it's $150 on average each way, including taxes. I expect that the high speed rail would match that price roughly and would get maybe 55% share, like Acela does on the NYC <-> DC shuttle.
Using 300 round-trips, that's 600 daily trips at 200 passengers apiece on 260 business days a year, or $2.6 billion a year revenue.
It wouldn't seem to make sense to spend $40 billion in infrastructure for $2.6 billion a year revenue. Or it might be just barely sensible after all things are considered, if it's on budget and little chance to go over budget.
Any math that I got wrong?
They're also hoping that many of the people who drive from one station area to another station are (example Orange County to LA or OC to SD) will opt to take the train instead of driving. Then there is bus traffic which could also add passengers.
Finally the high speed rail network is designed to be just the first step towards a total transportation solution. They want cities to upgrade their light rail net works to feed into the high speed rail as well as connect things like Airports, major business districts, tourist attractions, etc... In the end the system will very complete but it will take us 30 years to get there. Still, at least they've identified the long term goal and are working to get there.
It doesn't make BUSINESS sense (because the ROI is too long - it will eventually pay off, but not any time soon). This is why a BUSINESS hasn't done it yet.
It doesn't mean there aren't reasons for you to want it anyway... that's why the government should do it.
You could add a proverbial butt load of more traffic by connecting LA to Las Vegas. In fact that route might even be profitable for a commercial operation as I know there was interest in this a while back but the deal fell through when the company demanded the state give right of ways free of charge and the state said no deal.
Originally posted by snoopy369
You seriously think the california government can actually get around to planning and starting serious building this within <1 year? I think you are underestimating the ability of morons to be morons ...
You have to:
Sell bonds
Decide who gets to decide who to decide what happens
Decide which of the rail lines will be built first
Decide who gets to build it
Decide which endangered species to wipe out with your tunnel through their habitat
....
I'm at work, so it's a shorter list than it would be otherwise ... but some of those decisions alone will take months (particularly #2)...
I guess you haven't heard, but Californians KICK ASS!
I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett Kavanaugh
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