Krazyhorse US election bet

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Why would I issue 50-50 odds, when I could get you to bite on 95-5?

Does it look like I'm biting on a chance to get what I think is 0 net expected value with significant risk exposure?

[Boris Godunov]

BK, if you think McCain is so sure to win, it's you who should be offering the bigger terms.

Nobody who is really confident in their side would say, "I'm SO SURE I'll win that I'll put down ONE DOLLAR to your TWENTY DOLLARS!"

[Ben Kenobi]

Are you backing out of this offer to extend the bet?

You misunderstood.

That was to price out the odds. I would stay until inaugeration day, but if McCain won, you'd be wearing the sig for another 4 years.

[Ben Kenobi]

Keep trying to spin it, you little *****. You're too much of a ***** to man up and back your big talk with any money.

Gee, swearing at me is really, really going to entice me to play this game.

You're a puss, Ben. Man up or shut up.

I'm not the one who goes around challenging people to put up money and then backs out.

[KrazyHorse]

This is sad. Ben thinks he's demonstrating his confidence in McCain by sticking at 20-1 against (and yes, snoopy, enough with your pedantry). I've demonstrated a willingness to go to 5-1 against McCain. C'mon Ben. You obviously don't think McCain's got much more of a shot than that. Otherwise you'd want to get in on this.

[Ben Kenobi]

Nobody who is really confident in their side would say, "I'm SO SURE I'll win that I'll put down ONE DOLLAR to your TWENTY DOLLARS!"

My mother never raised stupid children.

Why would I give KH odds that to him would be a sucker bet?

I'll give KH exactly what he thinks are the odds for this election, since he was the one who challenged me.

You don't go around slapping people with your glove if you think they can kick your ass. Surprised KH hasn't learned this already.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
You misunderstood.

That was to price out the odds. I would stay until inaugeration day, but if McCain won, you'd be wearing the sig for another 4 years.

Oh ok, so it was just another example of you being too chicken to back up the strength of your supposed convictions. Got it, no problem.

[Ben Kenobi]

You obviously don't think McCain's got much more of a shot than that. Otherwise you'd want to get in on this.

No, I'm trying to take advantage of Poly's extreme liberals for my own direct benefit.

Has it taken this long to clue in?

[Kidlicious]

Ben, if you refuse those odds, you must not really think McCain has a better chance than that.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
I'm not the one who goes around challenging people to put up money and then backs out.

Who the **** backed out, my little weasel?

Here is my original post

I will bet you 100$ straight up that Obama wins the election. Want to put your money where your mouth is?

Which by any reasonable understanding means I want 1-1 odds.

To which you responded:

You weren't willing to bet with me back in may.

If we do it for money I want the same rates you are crowing about on the site, 20:1 odds.

I put down 100 you put down 2000.

Prompting:

I didn't post a single time on these forums in the entire month of May. Or June, July, August or September for that matter. So I'm confused by what you're referring to. Not denying this, but I honestly have no recollection of any proposed bet.

and:

The only odds I've mentioned regarding the Obama-McCain showdown was 3-1, a few pages back on this thread.

As a matter of fact, 20-1 is pretty close to where I would peg the odds. But you obviously think McCain's are better than that. So offer me a compromise.

From me. At which point you replied:

Of course. If I didn't think McCain's chances were better then 20:1 I wouldn't be betting. I figured that you would be estimating his chances at 20:1 and would consider those fair odds.

If you think fair odds are 20:1 then we have a deal.

I think we can all see who's trying to weasel his way out of having to demonstrate his actual beliefs as to the current odds here. I've come down much closer to my estimate than you've been willing to.

You've been almost as honourable in this exchange as that sad, washed up old hulk McCain has been during this campaign.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


No, I'm trying to take advantage of Poly's extreme liberals for my own direct benefit.

Has it taken this long to clue in?

So why not take up the 5:1 odds that KH is really offering? If you're so confident, then it's easy money. If your mother really didn't raise you stupid, then you'd believe taking a surefire bet that would win you $80 is better than no bet at all.

[Ben Kenobi]

Ben, if you refuse those odds, you must not really think McCain has a better chance than that.

No, not at all. I can make more money with that money doing other things, then I can to tie it up into a bet.

Why would I sink money into something that was a coinflip? I'd be an idiot. I'd only sink money into something that I saw myself as having a significant advantage.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
extreme liberals

Think again, Oh Ben Who Makes a Fool of Himself when Discussing Politics or General Relativity

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
I can make more money with that money doing other things,

That's only because you won't make any money on this bet.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


No, not at all. I can make more money with that money doing other things, then I can to tie it up into a bet.

Tie it up into a bet? The bet will settle in 11 days, Ben. If you think that McCain is 1-1 then your expected return on the 20 vs. 100 bet is 30$

Come on, be a man and admit that you've got more mouth than balls.