Krazyhorse US election bet

[Boris Godunov]

It wasn't a month, it was from election day to inaugeration day.

But you later made a comment that was hard to decypher, indicating you were willing to extend the bet. If you're backing out of that now, no problem.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Sig material.

If you think 20-1 is fair odds, then take it or leave it.

I think 20-1 is about right in terms of expectations. In other words, I think both sides of the bet are about equally attractive. Why would I engage in a deal where I don't feel I'm picking up expected value, yet am picking up additional risk?

Learn the freaking capital asset pricing model, Ben.

[Ben Kenobi]

It wasn't a month, it was from election day to inaugeration day.

My apologies.

I accept.

If Obama wins I will wear the sig of your choice including the tribute to the gits from election day to inaugeration day.

If McCain wins, you will wear the signature of my choice for the same period.

[KrazyHorse]

You're a sad, sacared little man. First you put words in my mouth, claiming I've been "crowing" about 20-1 odds, when I had not mentioned any such odds. Then I mention that coincidentally, I think that's a pretty fair assessment of what the odds are, and Ben tries to turn that into an agreement to bet at those odds.

Ben, if you agree with me that the odds are 20-1 against McCain then feel free to admit it. If you think they're significantly better for him than that then you have a lot of room in which to compromise with me. What I would consider fair is to take the geometric mean of our two assessments. From your previous statements, I assume you're giving McCain an even money chance. The geometric mean is 16%, or 5-1 against.

[Ben Kenobi]

I think 20-1 is about right in terms of expectations.

And that is all a bookie cares about, pricing things appropriately.

You issued the challenge, I named the terms, and if you think the terms are fair you should accept.

Otherwise, you shouldn't issue challenges you aren't prepared to stand behind.

Look at it from your perspective. You, in your mind are basically guaranteed to earn 100 dollars. It's only right that you take risk in accordance with the odds.

[Ben Kenobi]

If you think they're significantly better for him than that then you have a lot of room in which to compromise with me.

You issued the challenge. If you don't like the terms walk away.

You shouldn't really issue idle challenges.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


And that is all a bookie cares about, pricing things appropriately.

So if you were a bookie, you're saying you would set the odds of a McCain victory at 5% because that's your honest assessment of the situation.

Thanks for conceding the point. I expect to see quit your blathering about how McCain's going to surprise everybody.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
You issued the challenge, I named the terms, and if you think the terms are fair you should accept.

Otherwise, you shouldn't issue challenges you aren't prepared to stand behind.

My challenge was to bet you 100$ straight up. You countered with a 20-1 shot. I decided to allow a compromise of 5-1, and explained where I got my number.

So the challenge goes back to you. What odds do YOU think are fair on a McCain victory?

So far you've stuck at 5%. Is that it? Are you too scared to go higher?

[Ben Kenobi]

So if you were a bookie, you're saying you would set the odds of a McCain victory at 5% because that's your honest assessment of the situation.

What do bookies care about the truth? They only want to make money. If they can make money on long or short odds, then they will do precisely what makes them the most money.

Look at it this way, if I can get the same number of people to bid on 95 to 5 odds, as would take 50-50 odds, I'd be a fool to issue 50-50 odds. I'd take the 95-5 odds, to match the perception of those who are willing to bet.

Look at the spreads at any football game. Do they match reality? No. They match people's expectations, which may or may not be true.

[Theben]

You two should conduct your bet via PM, if you're going to use $$.

[Ben Kenobi]

So far you've stuck at 5%. Is that it? Are you too scared to go higher?

Why would I issue 50-50 odds, when I could get you to bite on 95-5?

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi

My apologies.

I accept.

If Obama wins I will wear the sig of your choice including the tribute to the gits from election day to inaugeration day.

If McCain wins, you will wear the signature of my choice for the same period.

BK, this bet was already in place.

The issue is that you made what appeared to be an offer to extend the terms of the bet here:

http://www.apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?postid=5440585#post5440585

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Election - Inauguration is 2 months.

2*20 is 40 months.

You would wear my signature for 40 months?

Are you backing out of this offer to extend the bet?

[snoopy369]

He meant 20:1 odds (which is not 5%, anyway, that's 19:1) ...

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


What do bookies care about the truth? They only want to make money. If they can make money on long or short odds, then they will do precisely what makes them the most money.

Look at it this way, if I can get the same number of people to bid on 95 to 5 odds, as would take 50-50 odds, I'd be a fool to issue 50-50 odds. I'd take the 95-5 odds, to match the perception of those who are willing to bet.

Look at the spreads at any football game. Do they match reality? No. They match people's expectations, which may or may not be true.

Keep trying to spin it, you little *****. You're too much of a ***** to man up and back your big talk with any money. The only offer you've shown any willingness to accept is one which is drastically lower than your previous statements would imply.

You're not a bookie and I'm not your customer. I've gone to 5-1 against McCain and you're stuck at 20-1 against him.

You're a puss, Ben. Man up or shut up.

[snoopy369]

Enough with the name calling, please. You two work out the bet over PM if you're going to call names... otherwise i'll have to go call ming, and since it's friday he's probably drunk enough for me to be able to convince him to ban you for a few months