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Originally posted by Lancer
Aeson, are you saying that this has happened before?
Yah. The bear market we're in has looked an awful like the last one. Almost the same top, a double top both times, similar selloff and rally extents in most cases, and pretty close on the timing of them too.
If you look at past "panics" there are trends you can look towards to see how people (as a market) actually panic. It's a type of psychology, as people will react similarly in similar situations. (And perhaps the most important aspect of a bear market is fear... and people react to fear now as they always have...) I don't think it tells you where you're going so much as how you'll get there.
For instance, bear markets have the largest swing days, up and down. There tend to be huge rallies (over weeks or months) that go almost straight up. Just like the selloffs go almost straight down.
Bottoms, and the return to stability... tend to be more boring. Bull markets are pretty boring too. I think a good litmus test to get back into markets (for casual investors) is just... will I sleep at night with my money in the market? (Sorry insomniacs... no investing for you! )
Branson related a story about how a deal he had with a bank that went south screwed up his airine doing this or that and how he was a little shocked to hear it. Might have been Lehman. So then he was relating that to when he heard about 9/11 and the shock from that, etc...
Long time member @ Apolyton
Civilization player since the dawn of time
Originally posted by Lancer
Branson related a story about how a deal he had with a bank that went south screwed up his airine doing this or that and how he was a little shocked to hear it. Might have been Lehman. So then he was relating that to when he heard about 9/11 and the shock from that, etc...
So he's not going to jump then.
I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett Kavanaugh
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