DOW at 9,258

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by CrONoS
Why does people keep selling? I don't understand! Why don't they just keep their financial asset?

Obviously because they believe the market is going to keep going down.

[Chemical Ollie]

But sooner or later it will go up again. Don't sell, idiots!

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by CrONoS
Why does people keep selling? I don't understand! Why don't they just keep their financial asset?

Kid provided one reason: People think the market will fall lower. Sometimes it's just panic.

A second reason is that they need the money. Maybe Little Jenny needs an operation.

Maybe they think they've found a better investment elsewhere: Gold, silver and platinum perhaps. I've heard the U.S. will be selling $850 billion in bonds soon. The purchase price of those bonds has to come from somewhere.

[Aeson]

Also you can make money selling short as prices fall.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Chemical Ollie
But sooner or later it will go up again. Don't sell, idiots!

You can buy then. You don't have to hold the stock the whole time.

[DirtyMartini]

If you hold stock in a company you think is going to fail -- you'd better sell.

By the way, this thread is now far out of date -- 8582 now

[Kidlicious]

The measure of investor fear is also at an all time high.

[Aeson]

We're still rhyming pretty well with the last bear market, at least on the S&P. If it continues to do so, one big rally soon, then capitulation.

[Aeson]

The other way to read that is of course... a gigantic double top. But we don't want to look at it that way, and the technical predictions would be absurd. (Can the stock market go negative? )

[Kidlicious]

I don't think it looks very good if you look at it from the dot com bust.

[Japher]

I'm not selling as I have about as much in cash as I have/had in stocks. I think I wait until the bottom and the up my positions. However, that may be sometime. Still, I just don't see the point in it. Either I have cash in hand that ain't worth a dime because of the impending inflation. Or, I have x amount in stocks that will be subject to immediate economy instead of the upcoming ecnomy. Either way my net worth is down and I'm screwed. So, I might as well hold on to my stocks and hope that when the market turns around they do too. Besides, I moved all my stocks into Blue Chips about a month ago and while they have seen bad times here lately, they haven't been wholey effected as bad as the market. I think they'll survive.

[Chemical Ollie]

Originally posted by Kidicious


You can buy then. You don't have to hold the stock the whole time.

Not enough money to buy any stocks at the moment. I currently put everything I earn into repairing my house.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Chemical Ollie


Not enough money to buy any stocks at the moment. I currently put everything I earn into repairing my house.

I put everything into Naomi Klein books. The value has been pretty stable, relatively speaking. I'm proud.

[Aeson]

Originally posted by Japher
I'm not selling as I have about as much in cash as I have/had in stocks. I think I wait until the bottom and the up my positions. However, that may be sometime. Still, I just don't see the point in it. Either I have cash in hand that ain't worth a dime because of the impending inflation. Or, I have x amount in stocks that will be subject to immediate economy instead of the upcoming ecnomy. Either way my net worth is down and I'm screwed. So, I might as well hold on to my stocks and hope that when the market turns around they do too. Besides, I moved all my stocks into Blue Chips about a month ago and while they have seen bad times here lately, they haven't been wholey effected as bad as the market. I think they'll survive.

Stocks going down with inflation going up (if that's your prediction) means you lose twice though. That's because stock values are in dollars.

For instance, general index, stocks have lost ~35% over the last year or so. They are valued in dollars, and dollars lost ~25% over much the same timeframe. (But have rebounded greatly since Aug. But since that doesn't fit with your prediction we'll just ignore it.)

So your stocks didn't just lose 35%... they lost the 25% of the remainder as well. (till Aug.) Whereas someone in cash only lost the 25%, and essentially "made money" in the stock market as now they can afford 35% more than they could a year ago.

(And in dollars, up till now, they made money too. Though they were in a big hole till July.)

[EDIT: not a recommendation to sell now though. If you've held out this long, could very well be best to just wait it out. Selling near bottoms is just as harsh as buying near tops.]

[Impaler[WrG]]

Kid: I've been reading every macro-economic article I can find, I read that thought in one of them but don't recall ware but it might have been Krug.

I think people fail to see a major difference between this bubble and the Dotcom bubble.

The Dot bubble had an actual productive revenue and profit generating nucleus to it, things like google, amazon and E-bay came out of that era and are now blue chip companies. For most of the 90's computer and information technology was the real engine of the economy as it fundamentally increased the efficiency of practically every human activity in the traditional economy while also creating new products and services that were in high demand. The bubble was simply an over estimation of how great the efficiency gains would be combined with a gambling style of investment, people trying to "buy in early on the next Ford" knowing that most companies were doomed and consolidation was coming you had to buy everything to not be stuck holding the bag. When the speculation collapsed their was still true value underneath and real wealth and value had been created for society at large.

This bubble was driven by nothing more then monetary policy and debt driven over consumption. No real wealth or value was added to society in the process only debt, and we've seen Oil prices rise to all time highs which means our society can not possibly produce the same net profits or productivity it enjoyed before.