Be the bid!

[Japher]

If Roche buys Genentech looks like I'll have a good chunck of change to invest... I'm thinking Arby's!

[Lorizael]

So what happens when that DJIA thing I see on WaPo's front page hits zero?

[Japher]

We start speaking Chinese

[notyoueither]

Anyone catch Jon Stewart's rant on CNBC and their financial reporting?

[snoopy369]

At this point I don't think there's any choice other than buy.

There are basically two scenarios:

1. The market recovers, and fairly soon (low between now and end of summer)

2. The market never recovers, and there is a fundamental change in how the market (and the US economy) works [ie, revolution, governmental takeover of the entire financial industry, abolishment of stock ownership or trade, something on that scale]

2 is quite unlikely, but even if it does happen, who cares? There's no downside to buying now...

[notyoueither]

What?

[snoopy369]

I'm saying, buy.

[notyoueither]

It can get worse, and it can stay there for a significant period of time.

[Jon Miller]

Yeah, but that just means you can't get your money back for a decade or two.

JM

[notyoueither]

Only?

Right now the Yankee dollar is one of the best investments one can have. The Yankee stock markets, not so much. Sort of perverse, but as long as the Chinese want it that way, that is the wave you want to ride. Cash, even at 1% interest is better than the next leg down in the markets (which seem to be on).

There's no need to rush in. The finacial industry world wide is in tatters. There will be no great run up over a short period of time as the markets are starved for fuel. The US consumer and corporations will be turning any spare cash into debt reduction for a little while, and the unemployed are not pumping up 401Ks.

That's my understanding of it, imperfect as it may be. The bottom line is that busts like this don't see sudden recovery, and especially when the fundamental problems are still not resolved. There will not be a real bottom until the economy underlying the markets is stable. We're nowhere near that.

[Jon Miller]

I didn't mean to imply we were at the bottom.

Just that unless we ge ta big change (Which would be great), in 20 years companies which still exist will probably be worth more than they are now.

JM

[snoopy369]

I don't think we're going to see a decade long bust or anything close to that. The economy is just too much based on the financial and stock markets nowadays to stay down that long. The economy will recover within a year or so, and as that happens the stock markets will gradually rise as people have confidence again.

I suspect that if Cassandra came in today and declared that the economy would be fully recovered by Jan 1, 2010, that the DJ would go up to 11,000 or so quite quickly.

[notyoueither]

I don't think we're going to see a decade long bust or anything close to that. The economy is just too much based on the financial and stock markets nowadays to stay down that long. The economy will recover within a year or so, and as that happens the stock markets will gradually rise as people have confidence again.

I suspect that if Cassandra came in today and declared that the economy would be fully recovered by Jan 1, 2010, that the DJ would go up to 11,000 or so quite quickly.

Yes, the US economy is based on people selling **** to each other.

The problem with it is when people realise it is just ****.

[Japher]

The Market went up today because Obama kept his mouth shut - FACT!

[DanS]

It can get worse, and it can stay there for a significant period of time.

Looking at that chart, if you bought at 57% off the highs during the great crash, you would be positive on stock price by 1936 -- only 4 years after you bought it. That's not even accounting for dividends you would have been paid by holding the stocks.

Point being that even during a great crash and a great depression, yesterday's prices would have been an excellent time to invest.