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  • #46
    40 percent success rate now. 2/5.

    1/10th the cost. Means you are getting 4x the value of NASA. Before you were at about 2.25 or so.
    Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
    "Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
    2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!

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    • #47
      AWESOME MATH.
      "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
      Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

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      • #48
        That math makes absolutely no sense, Ben.
        I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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        • #49
          Hmm?

          1/4 = 25 percent.

          1/10 = 10/1 value.

          10/1 x 1/4 = 10/4 = 2.5

          2/5 = 40 percent

          2/5 x 10/1 = 20/5 = 4/1 or 4x value.

          Of course NASA isn't quite at 100 percent, closer to about 98 percent.

          I'm also assuming replacement costs = value of cargo.
          Last edited by Ben Kenobi; July 17, 2009, 13:57.
          Scouse Git (2) La Fayette Adam Smith Solomwi and Loinburger will not be forgotten.
          "Remember the night we broke the windows in this old house? This is what I wished for..."
          2015 APOLYTON FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPION!

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          • #50
            Good job.

            Thanks for posting the video, DanS.

            From toward the end of the video sequence:

            That was easy!


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            • #51
              Originally posted by Ben Kenobi View Post
              Hmm?

              1/4 = 25 percent.

              1/10 = 10/1 value.

              10/1 x 1/4 = 10/4 = 2.25

              2/5 = 40 percent

              2/5 x 10/1 = 20/5 = 4/1 or 4x value.

              Of course NASA isn't quite at 100 percent, closer to about 98 percent.

              I'm also assuming replacement costs = value of cargo.
              Solomwi is very wise. - Imran Siddiqui

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              • #52
                Some awesome aerial pictures of the launch, courtesy of the US Air Force (range service providers). You know you're out in the middle of nowhere Pacific Ocean when...
                Attached Files
                I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                • #53
                  Originally posted by GePap View Post
                  Sorry, but I serious doubt many companies will entrust their horrifically expensive satelites to a private company that has only shown it can get 25% of its rockets into space. They are going to have to do a lot more testing and build up a serious success record.
                  Not to mention it is probably going to be impossible to get insurance on. No insurance company would insure cargo on a rocket which has failed 75% of the time. It's problems like these which will insure that virtually all space launching will be done by governments into the future.
                  Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

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                  • #54
                    The second launch was carrying a satellite so they are selling somehow.
                    Long time member @ Apolyton
                    Civilization player since the dawn of time

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                    • #55
                      At the prices they are offering launch services, I think they'll continue to find enough willing takers.

                      They are undercutting everybody, including the Russians, by a healthy margin.
                      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                      • #56
                        Any ideas on what satellite construction costs (specifically, cost to construct an additional satellite if the first one gets blowed up) are compared to launch costs for some of these commercial sats?

                        From my vague recollection the launch costs tend to be higher than the construction costs, but not radically higher (?)
                        12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                        Stadtluft Macht Frei
                        Killing it is the new killing it
                        Ultima Ratio Regum

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                        • #57
                          My intuition would be that construction costs scale themselves to launch costs.

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                          • #58
                            My intuition leans that way as well, but I don't think it's 100% true.
                            12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                            Stadtluft Macht Frei
                            Killing it is the new killing it
                            Ultima Ratio Regum

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                            • #59
                              Originally posted by Oerdin View Post
                              Not to mention it is probably going to be impossible to get insurance on. No insurance company would insure cargo on a rocket which has failed 75% of the time. It's problems like these which will insure that virtually all space launching will be done by governments into the future.
                              Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

                              It's true for mutual funds. It's true for rocket launches. I suspect we'll start to see more and more of these, especially if SpaceX can develop a cheap and reliable launching platform.
                              John Brown did nothing wrong.

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                              • #60
                                It really depends on the satellite. Some of those large GEO satellites (HDTV satellites, etc.) are hellishly expensive.

                                Falcon 1 sells for $8 million, everything included. The closest US competition in this smallsat weight class is Minotaur I, at roughly $35 million. Falcon 1 is 2/5 and Minotaur I is 8/8. So you can roll your own Falcon 1 v. Minotaur I payload price crossover point for a payload that must fly on a US launcher.
                                Last edited by DanS; July 17, 2009, 13:20.
                                I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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