Obama Opens Up a 9-Point Lead

[Ramo]

Your premise is valid only if Congress and Treasury were not close to a deal. That isn't what I've read. It's also valid only if McCain were the only concern here. That isn't what I've said. And we have to ignore the fact that a senior advisor to Boehner admitted that they were trying to get McCain's name on any resolution.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Ramo
Your premise is valid only if Congress and Treasury were not close to a deal. That isn't what I've read. It's also valid only if McCain were the only concern here. That isn't what I've said. And we have to ignore the fact that a senior advisor to Boehner admitted that they were trying to get McCain's name on any resolution.

Check that link to the CBS report by Schieffer again, will you. Enough times so it sinks in.

Yeah, and the senior advisor to Boehner admitted no such thing, but spin, spin, spin away.

[Ramo]

Yeah, I read that Schieffer bit. Do you know what political cover is? It's an aye vote. I've said all along that an aye vote from McCain is absolutely critical. That doesn't change anything. At all.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Darius871


So then no, you don't understand the distinction between a purchase and a gift. Thanks for proving my point.

Even if Congress buys up mortgage-backed securities for $700 billion now and ultimately can only recoup $400 billion after they're all resolved by being eventually paid in full, foreclosed, refinanced, and/or assessed & sold off to private investors over the years, that losing purchase still doesn't comport with how most of the simplistic idiot public perceives this plan. They still think it's simply "giving" a bunch of Wall Street fatcats $700 billion taxpayer dollars to light their fat cigars with.

This is mostly the fault of Bush and Congress for failing to even try making their case to the wider public, and also of the media for incessantly harping on "the bailout" instead of a term that actually distinguishes this from the sort of balance-sheet padding that has been done with other companies (e.g. auto manufacturers). The quality of dialogue on this has been truly pathetic.

No. You're wrong. The securities aren't worth what the govt can recoup. They are worth nadda. That's what the bankers could get elsewhere. That's why the bankers are whining for a bailout.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Kidicious
They are worth nadda.

That's it, I'm done. If you can't grasp that even a defaulting mortgage still has considerable value... well there's just no hope for you.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Ramo
Yeah, I read that Schieffer bit. Do you know what political cover is? It's an aye vote. I've said all along that an aye vote from McCain is absolutely critical. That doesn't change anything. At all.

What about the fact that only FOUR Republican House members were for the bailout? You keep ignoring that (because it sinks your point). It, of course, changes everything.

Obviously the House Republicans were against this bailout far before anyone decided on anyone coming down to D.C.

[Jon Miller]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui


You know what looks good? If McCain shows up, talks to the House Republicans, gets them on board. They show up to the meeting, they say they have a few issues, McCain works with them during the evening and fixes it up and they have a finished deal by noon today and then McCain says, everything is done and he can go to Oxford.

If they were really trying to delay to help McCain, THAT is what they do, not deny the deal and then make McCain look silly on his debate stance.

Lay off the kool-aid.

This

JM

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Darius871


That's it, I'm done. If you can't grasp that even a defaulting mortgage still has considerable value... well there's just no hope for you.

The authorities and bankers are saying that the entire system will collapse if they don't get bailed out. I'm using their words.

[Kidlicious]

Anyone else besides Darius who doesn't think the bailout as proposed wouldn't be a gift, consider that fact that these ****ers lived by the market and we all paid for it. Now they are saying that their assets are worth more than they can get for them elsewhere.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Kidicious
The authorities and bankers are saying that the entire system will collapse if they don't get bailed out. I'm using their words.

What the hell does that have to do with whether a defaulting mortgage, or a securitized bundle of defaulting mortgages, has considerable actual value? Severely limited liquidity and consequent inability to meet credit demand are what would cause the collapse, not a defaulting mortgage's actual value being 0.00000000% of book value. Are you really that dense? Even a foreclosure can still recover 20-70% of the book value depending on local market conditions. That's a hell of a long way from 0.0000000000%. Are you really that dense?

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Darius871


What the hell does that have to do with whether a defaulting mortgage, or a securitized bundle of defaulting mortgages, has considerable actual value? Severely limited liquidity and consequent inability to meet credit demand are what would cause the collapse, not a defaulting mortgage's actual value being 0.00000000% of book value. Are you really that dense? Even a foreclosure can still recover 20-70% of the book value depending on local market conditions. That's a hell of a long way from 0.0000000000%. Are you really that dense?

From what they are saying there is no way a forclosure is going to cover anywhere near 70% of the book value. How much it will cover is up to speculation.

That really has no bearing on the current value of those securities. The current value of those securities is the what the investors could get elsewhere. Ok, they aren't worth nadda, but they aren't worth much at all.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Kidicious


No. You're wrong. The securities aren't worth what the govt can recoup. They are worth nadda.

They may be illiquid, but they ain't nada.

These mortgages are bundled in packages. Some of the mortgages are perking along, working fine. Some can be restructured so that they can eventually be paid off. Some with have to be foreclosed upon, with the foreclosing party [soon to be the U.S. govt] getting the proceeds. Some will be for second mortgages, where the money still owed on the first mortgage exceeds the equity--and both mortgages are in default. THESE are worth nada.

How much is each bundle worth?? No one knows, but a lot less than people used to think they were. This lack of knowledge is what is freaking people out and is why no one wants to buy them.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Zkribbler


They may be illiquid, but they ain't nada.

These mortgages are bundled in packages. Some of the mortgages are perking along, working fine. Some can be restructured so that they can eventually be paid off. Some with have to be foreclosed upon, with the foreclosing party [soon to be the U.S. govt] getting the proceeds. Some will be for second mortgages, where the money still owed on the first mortgage exceeds the equity--and both mortgages are in default. THESE are worth nada.

How much is each bundle worth?? No one knows, but a lot less than people used to think they were. This lack of knowledge is what is freaking people out and is why no one wants to buy them.

No. This is simple. We are rescuing them. People understand that. That fact is that they profited off of us for a long time and now they want us to rescue them, but they don't offer anything in return. In fact, they will go on profiting off of us after we bail them out. Americans aren't that stupid.

[Zkribbler]

As I understand thinks, the government is to get warrants in the companies.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by Kidicious


From what they are saying there is no way a forclosure is going to cover anywhere near 70% of the book value. How much it will cover is up to speculation.

That really has no bearing on the current value of those securities. The current value of those securities is the what the investors could get elsewhere. Ok, they aren't worth nadda, but they aren't worth much at all.

[What Zkrib said], plus a mallet and pritchel to pound it into your thick skull. Not EVERY one of these mortgages is going to be foreclosed. Some will keep current until paid off, some will be restructured to remain viable, some will be refinanced, some will be paid off outright, and yes, some will be foreclosed. The end result is a actual value significantly higher than what foreclosing on all of them would rake in. I'd bet money on no less than 40% when all's said and done a decade from now.

Look, if I buy a pack of gum from you for $1.00, and I later find out that it's only good enough to re-sell for $0.40, that wasn't a mere "gift." It's just that simple.