The Official 2008 Electoral College Prediction Thread

[Ben Kenobi]

I give McCain a small chance to win... maybe 5%. But if he does, it will be the squeakiest of squeakers.

Election - Inauguration is 2 months.

2*20 is 40 months.

You would wear my signature for 40 months?

[Zkribbler]

CNN is predicting Virginia will vote for Obama.
That gives him a projected Electoral Vote of 277 -- enought for the election.

And there's still battleground states out there ... in which McCain is falling further and further behind.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Election - Inauguration is 2 months.

2*20 is 40 months.

You would wear my signature for 40 months?

I don't follow?

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Zkribbler
CNN is predicting Virginia will vote for Obama.
That gives him a projected Electoral Vote of 277 -- enought for the election.

And there's still battleground states out there ... in which McCain is falling further and further behind.

Maybe it's the cranky old pessimist in me, but here's how I'm thinking about this:

The big question for me is, who the hell is still an undecided voter? This election has been going on for the better part of two years already; how can anybody still be undecided? And my feeling -- based on absolutely nothing but my gut -- is that voters who are still undecided are voters who know, rationally, that they will not be well-served by more Republican government, but who cannot, emotionally, bring themselves to vote for Obama -- because he's black, because he's a liberal, because he's a Dem, because he's an unknown quantity, or whatever. At the end of the day, these folks will all pull the lever for McCain, because at the end of the day they'll prefer the devil they know.

So in evaluating the current polls, the question is not, "where is Obama ahead?" but instead "where has Obama got more than 50% of the vote?" Any state where he's ahead, but still under 50%, can -- and I think likely will -- break for McCain. This is why VA is so crucial; he's actually over 50% there (unlike FL, OH, or even CO).

However, this is also why McCain's campaign continues to be so baffling. With time and money both dwindling, McCain's goal should seem clear: hold VA, OH,, FL, and CO. Do that, and he can afford to have Obama flip IA and NM; he still comes out ahead, 274-264. So where was he today? Pennsylvania -- where Obama's in the comfortable mid-50s according to the last 6 (!) polls. WTF? Is anybody in charge of that campaign at this point?

[Guynemer]

Bumped for reference tonight. I think Zkribbler may win it.

[Guynemer]

Well, it is down to Boris and EPW.

If North Carolina gets called for Obama, EPW is the winner.

If McCain pulls it out, Boris is the victor.

Nebraska's CD-2 EV is irrelevent for these purposes.



Very likely that EPW is our winner.



Congrats, EPW!

[Winston]

Argh, I was this close..

[Guynemer]

[Boris Godunov]

Happy to be wrong this time

[EPW]