The Canadian Federal Election will probably be October 14th

[Wezil]

http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/polls.html#NATIONAL

[Asher]

Nanos has had the Liberals at 30 since the end of September. It's the worst of the polls, consistently inflates the Liberals compared to everyone else.

[Wezil]

Yeah, I knew you wouldn't like it.

I have no intention of arguing poll numbers (distorted national ones at that) but Nanos has been the most accurate in the past. Are they again?

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Wezil
Yeah, I knew you wouldn't like it.

I have no intention of arguing poll numbers (distorted national ones at that) but Nanos has been the most accurate in the past. Are they again?

If it is that close now, it should be very tight. Is Harper's debate performance hurting him? Or is it the concentrated attack and coverage of four parties all taking aim at him?


This could be one weird election-- Cons should take Alberta and will almost certainly lose 2 and maybe 3 of their three seats in Newfoundland.

Ontario and Quebec were seeming like huge battlegrounds but with the NDP growing in strength and the Greens indeed "horning in" you could have very many three and 4 way splits. In theory that should favor the Conservtives but really in practice who the heck knows??

In the last elections we did see NDP voters defect to the Liberals but I would think there should be less of that this time given what an unattractive option Dion is this time. If Layton can hold his support you should see decent NDP gains. (they may win a Newfoundland seat as they are running a very strong candidate)

I don't know if the Greens have any hopeful seats ? Is Elizabeth May seen as having a good chance to unseat Mackay? My impression is that Green support is somewhat uniform nationally so that they could pick up even 15% of the vote and still conceivably take 0 seats.


Right now I am confident of exactly nothing. My only wishes are

1. Whatever happens, the Green Shift is never implemented

and

2. That there were some way I could have a vote for the national party and a separate one for the local candidate-- I hate it when a local candidate for a preferred party really really sucks

[Asher]

My riding is getting interesting. Apparently somebody (presumably NDP, given the comments) is vandalizing people's homes/cars who have Liberal signs on their lawn, including cutting their car breaks.

I always found it very stupid to put political signs on your lawn. It just asks for trouble.

[Kontiki]

Originally posted by Flubber
2. That there were some way I could have a vote for the national party and a separate one for the local candidate-- I hate it when a local candidate for a preferred really really sucks

Meh, just vote for your preferred local candidate. I did that last time and may do it again this time. For me, that happens to be NDP (Olivia Chow). I'd never EVER want the NDP to form the government, but I like having some of them in parliament.

[Asher]

You live in the riding I work in.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Kontiki


Meh, just vote for your preferred local candidate. I did that last time and may do it again this time. For me, that happens to be NDP (Olivia Chow). I'd never EVER want the NDP to form the government, but I like having some of them in parliament.

and I will vote for my preferred local candidate but it IS a failing of our system in some ways that that is your only opportunity to influence who will be the prime minister

[Wezil]

Originally posted by Flubber


If it is that close now, it should be very tight. Is Harper's debate performance hurting him? Or is it the concentrated attack and coverage of four parties all taking aim at him?

Most polls show a Con drop around the time of the debate. I think it is a combination of the gang up at the debate and the continued bad economic news.

This could be one weird election-- Cons should take Alberta and will almost certainly lose 2 and maybe 3 of their three seats in Newfoundland.

Conservatives being completely shut out of Nfld (and PEI) is in the works.

Ontario and Quebec were seeming like huge battlegrounds but with the NDP growing in strength and the Greens indeed "horning in" you could have very many three and 4 way splits. In theory that should favor the Conservtives but really in practice who the heck knows??

Agreed. It will be interesting. The major urban ridings are not in play (again) so the fight once again centres on the 905 and southwestern ON. The effect of the splits just can't be predicted.

In the last elections we did see NDP voters defect to the Liberals but I would think there should be less of that this time given what an unattractive option Dion is this time. If Layton can hold his support you should see decent NDP gains. (they may win a Newfoundland seat as they are running a very strong candidate)

The NDP fears the same thing happening again. This time however they can argue the Libs record (supporting the Con government vote after vote) as a good reason to vote NDP and not Lib.

I don't know if the Greens have any hopeful seats ? Is Elizabeth May seen as having a good chance to unseat Mackay? My impression is that Green support is somewhat uniform nationally so that they could pick up even 15% of the vote and still conceivably take 0 seats.

I suspect MacKay's riding is the only one that might happen for the Greens. The fact MacKay has been staying close to home and not campaigning for the party in other ridings seems to indicate there is some concern there. He is a Cabinet mnister after all...

Right now I am confident of exactly nothing. My only wishes are

1. Whatever happens, the Green Shift is never implemented

I doubt it would be even if Dion were to somehow end up as PM. There just isn't enough support for it and he would have difficulty pushing it in a minority situation. I think Green Shift is DOA.

and

2. That there were some way I could have a vote for the national party and a separate one for the local candidate-- I hate it when a local candidate for a preferred party really really sucks

The system is broken and in desperate need of reform on many fronts.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Asher
My riding is getting interesting. Apparently somebody (presumably NDP, given the comments) is vandalizing people's homes/cars who have Liberal signs on their lawn, including cutting their car breaks.

I always found it very stupid to put political signs on your lawn. It just asks for trouble.

Cutting car brakes is INSANE-- I doubt when they find who did this they will have anything other than the most tenuous links to any party .

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Wezil




Conservatives being completely shut out of Nfld (and PEI) is in the works.
.

Nothing much new in being shut out in PEI. IN NL two incumbents resigned and the remaining sitting MP ( Fabian Manning) may be their only real hope . He feuded with Williams before and can probably make the case that he would "stand up for Newfoundland" with Harper

Originally posted by Wezil
Agreed. It will be interesting. The major urban ridings are not in play (again) so the fight once again centres on the 905 and southwestern ON. The effect of the splits just can't be predicted.
.

Why are the major urban ridings not in play. Are not the NDP strong there and battling the Liberals hard? Or did you just mean not in play for the Conservatives

Originally posted by Wezil

The NDP fears the same thing happening again. This time however they can argue the Libs record (supporting the Con government vote after vote) as a good reason to vote NDP and not Lib.

THats probably a pretty good argument for the NDP

Originally posted by Wezil




I suspect MacKay's riding is the only one that might happen for the Greens. The fact MacKay has been staying close to home and not campaigning for the party in other ridings seems to indicate there is some concern there. He is a Cabinet mnister after all...



.

I believe Mackay was in Newfoundland yesterday-- The message the local paper (a moderataely anti-Harper publication) stated was a bit of a threat to NL if they didn't elect a government MP (amazing how the spin can be made!!)

[Wezil]

Yes, I meant "in play" wrt the Conservatives. The Libs and NDP are battling for them. eg. There are 4 London ridings and the Cons realistically only have a shot at 1 of them. The riding they are hoping for is predominently rural. The Cons did reasonably well outside the cities last time out and were hoping to pick up a few in the cities this time out. I'm not in their warroom but my guess is the party is back to fighting to hang on to what they have in this province.

[Asher]

The Liberals are thrown into chaos by smelly dirty laundry courtesy of Paul Martin's leaked memoirs: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl.../BNStory/Front

[Wezil]

A week before the vote and the Conservatives finally get around to releasing their platform. Just more of the Harper openness I've come to love.

[Wezil]

Originally posted by Asher
The Liberals are thrown into chaos by smelly dirty laundry courtesy of Paul Martin's leaked memoirs: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl.../BNStory/Front

Martin is critical of Chretien!!!???

Say it isn't so.