Heir(s) to America?

[Elok]

So, who do you think will become the dominant power(s) on Earth once America fades into obscurity? Not that such a thing is necessarily going to happen soon--though it wouldn't much surprise me, what with our having a national debt big enough to affect the ****ing tides. Plus nobody seems interested in not spending hypothetical money any time in the foreseeable future...but this thread isn't about that, so I'll leave it at that.

I'm going to list all the major powers I can think of, and even some really damned big but not too plausible countries too. Hopefully I won't leave out anyone's pick.

[Zkribbler]

the 19th Century was the century of Europe
the 20th Century was the century of America
the 21st Century will be the century of Asia
most probably China, India, maybe Russia (pt II) and/or the Gulf States.

[Japher]

I voted China.

However, I think it will come at the cost of them giving up communism. At which time, I welcome our Chinese Overlords and their delicious mystery meat and steamed dumplings...

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Japher
I voted China.

However, I think it will come at the cost of them giving up communism. At which time, I welcome our Chinese Overlords and their delicious mystery meat and steamed dumplings...

They've already given up communism. They just haven't realized it yet.

[Thoth]

Canada.

None can stand before the might of Beaver Power!

http://www.standingonguard.com/index2.html

[Ben Kenobi]

No Texas?

[Harry Tuttle]

China will be the next true superpower as its influence expands. I don't know if it will ever eclipse the U.S. in as far as diplomatic/leadership areas, but economically for sure. Militarily, well, maybe not for awhile and if then I doubt the U.S. would ever purposely lag behind.

Russia will continue to be annoying until Europe stops buying oil and gas from them. They never quite got capitalism.

Brazil will be an up-and-comer due to a large population and hefty resources, such as that big oil field they just found. Still, not a superpower.

India? A big power, but not a superpower.

The EU? Pfft. Please. Bloated, highly socialistic government and economy. No. Same course.

Australia, Canada? Never superpowers, but big time players if population booms.

[One_more_turn]

You guys are overestimating China.

[Kuciwalker]

The aliens will kill us all first.

[Victor Galis]

I suspect this century will be dominated by multipolarity. None of the big powers will be big enough to be the top. In a way it will be like the old days, where alliances determined who was on top and who wasn't.

I think several questions have to be answered (or rather predictions made) before you can figure out who can really answer the original question.

[GePap]

Originally posted by One_more_turn
You guys are overestimating China.

I see no reason why China should retain the second rung status is was relegated to in the beginning of the 19th Century now that they have regained strong centralized power and learned the importance of utilizing foreign ideas.

Though I would not expect the changing of the guard as it were until the beginning of the next century (after all of us are dead).

[Kirnwaffen]

I think the next decade or two is going to see US diplomatic interests shifting toward building stronger security ties with India. An India technologically backed by the US could serve as a sort of hedging of bets in the region if all hell breaks loose in Pakistan, and also as a bulwark against China. That, I think could set up a much stronger India/China rivalry.

[Perfection]

Originally posted by GePap

(after all of us are dead).

Speak for yourself, I plan to live forever.

[Victor Galis]

Russia's future depends largely on who's in charge. Assuming no major changes from the current situation, I suspect foreign investors will be scared off by repeated government interference and seizure of assets. Its relationship to the West will become increasingly strained while China might greedily eye Siberia and other parts of the Russian far-east. Russia isn't going to be a super-power by itself, but it has oil and nuclear weapons. It's economy isn't going to be too hot and its population is shrinking.

China... that's going to take a whole other post.

India... I actually don't know that much about them. Well I know some things, but not enough to make predictions about super-power status. I suspect they will play a big role.

The EU/a member thereof, well, the real question is will it hold together or get its act together or what. Really the EU is a huge economic power and will continue to be. The EU can also force reforms in countries that want to join. None of the EU countries can really project considerable military power over a large distance. On the other hand, if the EU gets a bit bigger, it may be able through regulation to set standards for any company that wants to do business on a global scale (at least some products).

Brazil has been the country of the future for a long time, though its time may have finally have come. Brazil has a long way to go before it's even remotely close to super power status. It will be a regional power though. If Chavez and friends continue to be rivals though, Brazil won't really be doing much outside the Americas.

Australia

Canada, kinda like Australia, except Canada stands to benefit from global warming where most lose. Canada has huge amounts of fresh water where many parts of the globe are running short. It also has lots of renewable/nuclear energy, oil and other natural resources. If the more disastrous global warming scenarios play out, Canada's a big winner, at least in relative terms. Assuming no serious anti-immigrant sentiment, Canada's population should also grow significantly. The rush for resources in the Arctic may lead to a more assertive foreign policy though it's unclear what challenge Canada could pose to its rivals, Russia, the US, or Denmark (or independent Greenland). Well, I suspect Canada could push around an independent Greenland though it would be disinclined to do so.

Frankly though, the only way Canada would become a super-power is if the US imploded spectacularly and Canada picked up some pieces. Not really a realistic short- or medium-term scenario.

A newly formed country... don't see this one comming. Doesn't mean it couldn't happen, but I just don't see it.

A coalition or pact of existing, piddly countries well, the EU is already on there.
Africa's a long way from getting its act together.
South America's divided into two or more camps. If they all rallied around Brazilian leadership they might have a shot at something, but certainly not single super power.
A new Muslim Caliphate... not bloody likely.
That basically leaves out SE Asia + Japan and Korea... see above.

Two or more of the above will vie for power: almost certainly the medium-term outcome. I think though what you will see is shifting alliance and different sorts of goals. Most of the big players have nukes so direct conflict is a big no no. Will think more and make a separate post on different combinations.

Bananastan... one day... muahahaha.

[DRoseDARs]

Where's the option for Chindia?