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How big will Obama's victory be?

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  • #76
    Integrity.
    Click here if you're having trouble sleeping.
    "We confess our little faults to persuade people that we have no large ones." - François de La Rochefoucauld

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    • #77
      I voted against Hillary, with an open mnd at the time between Obama and McCain. Now, I don't see me voting for Obama. Where does that fall in the cited polls and predictions? I hardly think I'm the only voter to go down this path.
      Last edited by SlowwHand; June 20, 2008, 13:42.
      Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
      "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
      He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

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      • #78
        538 looks extremely obama-biased (to the point of the advertising...) Those numbers are pretty sillily high - no sane person without a bias would predict a landslide in this election to either side.
        <Reverend> IRC is just multiplayer notepad.
        I like your SNOOPY POSTER! - While you Wait quote.

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        • #79
          Not especially. If the 2004 election were swung ~7-8% (which is what the national polls say) uniformly, it's an electoral college landslide. And the electoral college might slightly overemphasize Obama's advantage (i.e. it's more likely that Obama wins the electoral vote and loses the popular vote than the opposite).
          "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
          -Bokonon

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          • #80
            538 looks extremely obama-biased (to the point of the advertising...) Those numbers are pretty sillily high - no sane person without a bias would predict a landslide in this election to either side.
            They have a well defined purely mathematical model based on an analysis of other agencies polls. Their predictions shift with polls results, in fact they had McCain with the advantage just a few weeks ago when Hillary was still running. The poll numbers have moved in Obama's direction and their projections followed suit. Their currently projecting only a 5.2% popular vote margin for Obama with is in close agreement with National polls like Gallup. A big chunk of Electoral votes (more then a dozen states) are within the margin of error so a 5% advantage flips more then a hundred Electoral votes.
            Companions the creator seeks, not corpses, not herds and believers. Fellow creators, the creator seeks - those who write new values on new tablets. Companions the creator seeks, and fellow harvesters; for everything about him is ripe for the harvest. - Thus spoke Zarathustra, Fredrick Nietzsche

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