How big will Obama's victory be?

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by SlowwHand
Speculators aren't helping the situation.

I keep waiting to hear a proposal to open up the U.S. Strategic Oil Reserve.

If this looked as if it were going to happen, speculators would panic, liquidate their positions, and prices would come down fast.

[SlowwHand]

Well,

Bush calls for offshore drilling


President George W Bush has called on Congress to end a 27-year ban on drilling for oil in US coastal waters, to reduce dependence on imports.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7460767.stm

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,368221,00.html

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25222914/

[Zkribbler]

No. Not offshore drilling.

In...where is it? Lousiana?...there are underground salt domes into which we have been pumping crude oil since the 1970's. It's for emergencies. I'm talking about using some of that.

[Impaler[WrG]]

I'm not sure how true it is but it is being said that currently the US uses 21mm barrels/day but only produces 9mm. Supposedly, there is enough domestic oil to turn the US into a net exporter of oil. Add to that that 73% of Americans currently support increased drilling.

Ware on Earth did you hear that? That would require us to increase Oil production by more then the entire production of Saudi Arabia! The entire global production is only 80mbpd.

Heres an actual estimate of what effect we would be looking at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/ongr.html

The the only possible short term solution is some kind of market alteration/manipulation (that could be a wide variety of policies from either the left of right), new supplies and alternative energy can't possibly come online quickly enough to do much of anything in the next presidents term all they can do lay the ground work for future decades so its no surprise that no ones claiming they have a short term solution they would be ripped apart for it.

My view is summarized by two words "Peak Oil" Google that if your unfamiliar with it. In summary we are screwed regardless but a "Manhattan project of Alternative Energy" might soften the blow enough that civilization as we know it continues to exist in 20-30 years.

EDIT:

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not large enough to cause a price collapse and it explicitly exists to protect against a short sharp supply interruption (like Iran blockading the Persian Gulf). The SPR would never be tapped without also instituting strict rationing as well, it exists to guard against a Mad Max scenario.

[Imran Siddiqui]

might soften the blow enough that civilization as we know it continues to exist in 20-30 years.

I love you peak oil nuts, I really do.

[Zkribbler]

Anyway.....I'm predicting a win by Obama by 51-75 electoral votes.

[Impaler[WrG]]

Oh by the way 201-300

More precisely 385 / 153 for a 232 EV margin, popular vote margin 8%

[Japher]

stop sounding smart

it hurts my head

[SlowwHand]

Originally posted by Zkribbler
No. Not offshore drilling.

In...where is it? Lousiana?...there are underground salt domes into which we have been pumping crude oil since the 1970's. It's for emergencies. I'm talking about using some of that.

Texas, Alaska, other places. The point is, Bush was trying to get away from foreign dependency.

[Impaler[WrG]]

This rather new site dose meta analysis of all polls, the owners gotten a good reputation during the Primaries. I recommend everyone have a look.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[Berzerker]

40-60

[Deity Dude]

Originally posted by Impaler[WrG]


Ware on Earth did you hear that? That would require us to increase Oil production by more then the entire production of Saudi Arabia! The entire global production is only 80mbpd.

Here's where I heard it:

"Estimated U.S. oil shale reserves total an astonishing 1.5 trillion barrels of oil - or more than five times the
stated reserves of Saudi Arabia." Shell Oil

Go to Wiki:

Global deposits are estimated as equivalent to 2.8 trillion to 3.3 trillion barrels (450×109 to 520×109 m3) of recoverable oil.

A 2005 estimate set the total world resources of oil shale at 411 gigatons — enough to yield 2.8 to 3.3 trillion barrels (520 km³) of shale oil.[2][3][4][5] This exceeds the world's proven conventional oil reserves, estimated at 1.317 trillion barrels (209.4×109 m3), as of 1 January 2007.[21] The largest deposits in the world are found in the United States in the Green River basin, which covers portions of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming; about 70% of this resource is located on federally owned or managed land.[22] Deposits in the United States constitute 62% of world resources

62% of 2.8-3.3 trillion = 1.7-2.0 trillion barrels of recoverable oil in the US

OK now do a little more math. US imports 12mbpd.

Let's take the low end estimate of recoverable oil:

1.7 trillion barrels /12mbpd = 141,666 days or roughly 388 years.

Let's say there is only half that amount and at the same time our usage doubles. Thats still 35,416, roughly 97 years and 1.3 times the entire Saudi Arabian reserve.

Next question:

Is it economical?

Again go to Wiki:

Initially it would cost $75-90/barrel and continue to fall, stabilizing at $30-$40/barrel once a billion barrel threshold had been met. (See below)

According to a survey conducted by the RAND Corporation, the cost of producing a barrel of oil at a surface retorting complex in the United States (comprising a mine, retorting plant, upgrading plant, supporting utilities, and spent shale reclamation), would be between US$70–95 ($440–600/m3, adjusted to 2005 values). This estimate considers varying levels of kerogen quality and extraction efficiency. In order for the operation to be profitable, the price of crude oil would need to remain above these levels. The analysis also discusses the expectation that processing costs would drop after the complex was established. The hypothetical unit would see a cost reduction of 35–70% after its first 500 million barrels (79×106 m3) were produced. Assuming an increase in output of 25 thousand barrels per day (4.0×103 m3/d) during each year after the start of commercial production, the costs would then be expected to decline to $35–48 per barrel ($220–300/m3) within 12 years. After achieving the milestone of 1 billion barrels (160×106 m3), its costs would decline further to $30–40 per barrel ($190–250/m3)

This isn't quick fix, but the above seems to imply that the $75-90/barrel is relatively quick and that $35-$48/barrel is expected within 12 years. I think even the announcement of this would impact prices. I certainly wouldn't want to be sitting around in 2013-2020 still debating it.

This doesn't even consider all of the offshore oil and natural gas deposits. Nor does it consider that our refineries are running at 89.7% capacity and that adding new refineries alone would increase output.

To ignore the future opportunities because it doesn't fix today's problem is short sighted.

By the way, for estimates on the amount of recoverable shale oil (which you seem to dispute the most) wiki is citing: The World Energy Council, Congressional Research Service, The US Department of Energy and The Energy Information Administration.

Edited to add Wiki link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale#Reserves

[Impaler[WrG]]

Oil Shale has never actually been mined, in Canada they get a bit of oil from "Tar Sands" (which is easier to get at and process then this Shale) but even that is exceedingly expensive and hasn't produced more then a fraction of Canada's oil production. It also consumes so much Natural Gas that the EROI (Energy Return on Investment) is terrible.

This process is roughly analogous to tearing off the asphalt from a road and cooking it until the Tar liquefies and drains off. Even then all you have is Tar, the lowest grade of Hydrocarbon their is, its not comparable to light sweet crude from which we make gasoline. If any useful fuel can be made from it at all it would require tremendous refining effort. You would never be able to base an energy system off Oil Shale,

Oil Shale is the Fusion of Fossil Fuels, always 30 years away and utterly impractical even if the pipe dream happens.

And lastly, theirs no government barriers to doing it right now if you wanted too (as opposed to the offshore drilling issue that was discussed earlier).

[Deity Dude]

Originally posted by Impaler[WrG]

Oil Shale is the Fusion of Fossil Fuels, always 30 years away and utterly impractical even if the pipe dream happens.

I guess you know more about it then the experts that state it could be done now for 75-90 per barrel and 38-45 within 12 years.

Originally posted by Impaler[WrG]

And lastly, theirs no government barriers to doing it right now if you wanted too (as opposed to the offshore drilling issue that was discussed earlier).

In the US there are strict government against it.

[Zkribbler]

Originally posted by Zkribbler
...
(3) Obama has the core Dems behind him. McCain lacks the full support of the Repub core.

...

This earlier statement of mine has proven to be incorrect. New poll results show that 90% of Republicans now say they will vote for McCain.