His armies were still in Mordor. It's just not that far from Mordor to Gondor.
Not to mention the forces assigned to reduce Rohan had already attacked and been defeated, so they obviously weren't in Mordor.
So the disposition of Sauron’s forces was set long before Aragorn reached Erech. Sauron had two choices, attack or not, his other troops wouldn't have reached him in time to assault Minus Trith on schedule. Not that it matters, Sauron did pick the right force distribution for what he knew, the ghosts were out of the blue.
He was a tad paranoid, it appears. But apparently Aragorn could've done some serious damage. Hell, Gil-Galad + Elendil took Sauron down when Sauron was wearing the Ring.
Gandalf himself, in either one of the LOTR epilogues or in the ring chapter of the Silm (I forget which) says that one of the good things about Bilbo having gone with the dwarves, is that Dale and the dwarves were there to save the North, else there would be no free North to return to even if Sauron was defeated
Now look, Patty, you may not like Arwen being important, but can you at least admit that PJ, in making her important, was being true to JRRTs larger vision?
I realize JRRT thinks Arwen is, and perhaps intended to make her, important but that is not born out in the trilogy and its appendices OR the silm. She serves no purpose other than being Aragorn's mattress. If she was supposed to be important JRRT should have written her as such. He didn't, so she is not.
Civ doesnt model logistics, or at least not well. Even if Elrond had lots of force to send (and beyond his sons and the force of rangers, he didnt have much - just Glorfindel and a handful of Elves who could really fight) he couldnt move them south easily.
There is no excuse for the pitiful garrison at Minus Trith and the general force structure of Gondor as a whole, especially the fact that not a single elven regular was present.
And why was it hard to move south? There wasn't a single significant military force in the way in the West. Sauraman has the East path locked down, perhaps they elves of Lothlorien should have done something about that, especially while he was still building strength, instead of sitting on their ass
Aside from which, if Elrond sends every damned battle worthy elf south, that pretty much TELLS Sauron the ring has gone south and isnt still in Rivendell, which otherwise Sauron doesnt know for sure.
Seeing that neither side knew what the end disposition of the ring was going to be, both should have fought the conventional war as competently as possible. Neither side, but the allies and the elves (extra emphasis) especially, did so.
Hell, for all these guys knew the ring could have ended up in a cave for the next 1000 years, AGAIN. Either depending on it to carry the day would have been, and was, stupid.
Youve always got to be prepared for uncertainty in war, no? Now I dont agree that the ghosts are a fluke - the story of the ghost and Elendil ought to be known by now to Sauron - whos had hundreds of years to gather intell on Gondor, afterall.
Gandalf doesnt trust himself with the ring, why do you think hed trust the eagles with it? The eagles arent perfect creatures, either - next thing you know, Frodo is being fed to some hatchlings, and a screaming eagle wearing a ring on its talon is lord of Middle Earth.
As far as he knows, Aragorn IS taking the ring to MT. He just might want to have considerable margin of conventional force.
[quote]But an ideal defensive position.[quote]
Which one? A town in a mountain where you can't grow anything? Easy seige.
That’s beside the point. The place is a backwater. Most of the humans were killed by Smaug when he burned their town to the ground or during the battle of the five armies. All the regions around it were wastelands or sparsely populated (did Bilbo run into ANY human development after crossing the Misty mountains all the way to Long Lake?).
There is simply nothing there. Maybe, MAYBE, a couple thousand human warriors augmented by some dwarves and some elves from Mirkwood. Sauron is commanding armies in the hundreds of thousands at least. Maybe millions. Dale and its surroundings are irrelevant given the scale of other events at the time.
The last time Sauron knows for sure where the ring is, when Frodo puts it on in front of the wraiths, just before getting to Rivendell. After that, all Sauron has is probabilities.
And what about when Frodo puts the ring on during Boromir's betrayal?
and look, I dont think he can ever be 100% sure the ring has left rivendell.
Obviously he was doing a pretty good job of ****ing up the incompetent humans and lazy elves without the ring. Even after he learns it was found from Gollum and that it is in the hands of his enemies, the allies have made no effort to use the ring. Sauron is money, and he doesn't even now it
You dont treat eagle kings like friggin canaries. that'll be sure to piss em off.
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