Giuliani Takes Step Toward '08 Bid

[Jon Miller]

It is true that he doesn't have the **** on him that (almost) all the Republicans in congress have on them. That being the case, I am still not sure about his lack of experience.

JM

[snoopy369]

Okay Dan, I have to ask ...

How is Ohio (currently) a GOP state? I have to believe that they are, currently, a 50/50 state. They've been on the edge in the last two presidential elections, have just elected a Dem governor, Dem senator, and are just over half republican congressmen (11/18 by my count). The Dems won the House and the Senate largely as a result of several Ohio switches...

[Admiral]

Originally posted by snoopy369
Okay Dan, I have to ask ...

How is Ohio (currently) a GOP state? I have to believe that they are, currently, a 50/50 state. They've been on the edge in the last two presidential elections, have just elected a Dem governor, Dem senator, and are just over half republican congressmen (11/18 by my count). The Dems won the House and the Senate largely as a result of several Ohio switches...

We didn't do so well in Ohio in the House. Also, in the recent past, Ohio has gone Republican in the presidential election, and in federal elections. You could argue that the Democrats only did well in Ohio due to a major backlash against the GOP following several major scandals, and that in 2008 Ohio will once again trend Republican.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

While the horserace aspect of this is interesting, people seem to forget exactly how Rudy ran New York. He succeeded by strongly allying himself with the police, ignoring the city council, lashing out at the media, going ballistic over dissent, and just generally being as authoritarian as he possibly could be.

New York is better for having had him as mayor; I won't argue with that. But those are terrible qualities in a president, as the current president is busy illustrating.

[Wycoff]

Originally posted by Ramo


You're missing an important key of the modern right - rabid opposition to immigration. It'll be interesting to see if Giulliani can position himself as to snatch up the Tancredo-right, or if they're inclined to go to someone like Romney. And if McCain ends up alone among immigration moderates, do the Tories see support for McCain-Feingold as the lesser sin?

I wouldn't be shocked to see this situation:

Tancredo runs for President in the primaries, garners a strong level of support (25-35%), but doesn't get enough to win.

Someone moderate on immigration wins the nomination and alienates the Tancredo supporters, so Tancredo opts to run third party on a socially rightwing, economically populist platform.

He'll then proceed to pull away enough Republican votes to swing the election to the Dems, thus giving third parties yet another black eye.

FTR, I don't think that McCain can win the Republican nomination. The immigration crowd is deadset against McCain, as he's pretty open border. The conservative right dislikes him because he helped make the "gang of twelve" to thwart the "nuclear" option last year. The capitalist right dislikes him because of McCain-Feingold. He has name recognition, but most of it is bad reputation as far as the right wing base goes.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
While the horserace aspect of this is interesting, people seem to forget exactly how Rudy ran New York. He succeeded by strongly allying himself with the police, ignoring the city council, lashing out at the media, going ballistic over dissent, and just generally being as authoritarian as he possibly could be.

New York is better for having had him as mayor; I won't argue with that. But those are terrible qualities in a president, as the current president is busy illustrating.

Rudy was highly unpopular by 911, and then he tried to get his term extended right after, but the City council shot it down.

Beyond his liberal social views and his messy personal life is the issue of corruption. Lets not forget what happened to bernie Kerik, and Kerik was Guilliani's man.

[DanS]

Originally posted by snoopy369
Okay Dan, I have to ask ...

How is Ohio (currently) a GOP state? I have to believe that they are, currently, a 50/50 state.

Currently, any state-level Republican is running scared because of the screwups and corruption at the top of the state party. I haven't yet asked my died-in-the-wool Republican family who they voted for statewide in this election, but I would bet a good chunk of money that the majority voted Strickland and Brown.

However, Ohio is no more a Dem state than my family are Dems. By way of example, you shouldn't confuse New York City as Republican, even though it has elected two Republicans in a row as 2-term mayor.

[Harry Tuttle]

The problem with Rudy is that he'd make a decent Senatorial candidate, not a presidential one. Even if Rudy were to be tacked with McCain as a VP he would still not have the pull like he would in NY. He wouldn't even be a viable competitor to a Hillary run for Prez if he was added on to a ticket for charismatic reasons. Rudy just doesn't have the experience and popularity to be on a ticket.

A McCain / Slightly Conservative VP would play as McCain has been courting Christian Conservatives. McCain is moderate enough on enough levels to pull in independents.

[Ramo]

And I dont know that you lose ALL Latinos for a generation. Id have to see the polling data.

The percentage of Hispanics who voted for Republicans fell to 29 percent, from 44 percent in 2004.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/14/us/politics/14repubs.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

This happened despite the party leader being a moderate himself. If a Tancredist gets the nomination, it's going to be ugly for the GOP. It's going to do the same thing to the Republican brand nationally as such rhetoric did to to the Republican brand in California in the early 90's. Which would be pretty sweet.

[Dinner]

Prop 187 has not just hurt but almost killed the Republicans in California. They just saw it as pure racism and since Republicans were pushing for it Latinos marched in mass into the arms of the Dems.

The Latinos who do vote in California vote something like 66%-75% Dem at election time though Latinos tend to have relatively low voter turn out unless there is a big issue which is resenating in the community. They're kind of similiar to blacks in that respect.

[Drake Tungsten]

The use of "Latinos" in this thread is misleading; we're talking about Mexicans here, for the most part. Latinos aren't a monolithic block of voters and not all Latinos are opposed to cracking down on illegal immigration...

[SlowwHand]

Giuliani is more Moderate. Running as VP to McCain, Dems would have a hard time beating it.

[Impaler[WrG]]

I think McCain has the better chance of winning the Republican nominations but neither of the two would likly be the VP choice by the other as their likly going to have a close race which makes for bad blood.

Gulliani prospects rise as the Republicans become more desperate/unpolular over the next two years. If they can consodidate its better for McCain and any potential 3rd contenders.

Personaly I think either of them would be acceptable presidents though I prefer a Democrate in any senario other then Hillary/McCain.

Hillary is unelectable because woeman wont vote for a female president, especialy Hillary. Its a gut thing and polling probably wont pick it up, woeman think to themselves "I know what WE are like and theirs no way I'd put someone like me in charge of Nukes". My fear is that Hillary wins the Democratic nomination and then losses to a right-wing Bush clone who gets anointed by the right and runs away with the nomination. I hope is she will have a Dean-like burnout in the primary and someone (anyone even Gore who should totaly keep the beard ) emerges with the nomination and goes on to beat the republican nominee.

[Bosh]

Originally posted by SlowwHand
Giuliani is more Moderate. Running as VP to McCain, Dems would have a hard time beating it.

That would be worth it just to see the freepers get anuerisms

[SlowwHand]

It would cause radical liberals aneurysms for another 8 years. THAT would be worth a giggle.