BREAKING NEWS: North Korea claims nuclear test!

[Q Classic]

Originally posted by GePap
If he dies before having had a son he can pass on the dynasty to, I would predict a fight between Generals for power, one which the country might not "survive." There is no established clear succession. A common problem for dynastic regimes.

Currently, there are reports that he has a son in mind for being a successor, but his son is far more... restrained and secretive.

[Q Classic]

Originally posted by Elok
I said a way OUT of this. Not "a way to continue subsidizing crimes against humanity/nuke research in a permanently unstable country." So what you're saying, GePap, is that there is no peaceful way out of this. Okay then.

Doesn't mean that the non-peaceful way out of it should really be considered.

[Elok]

Originally posted by Q Cubed

Doesn't mean that the non-peaceful way out of it should really be considered.

So you say-but that means accepting that this will continue until NK collapses from other causes, at which point the exact same chaos feared will unfold. Just with more advanced weaponry. It just strikes me as wiser to take the pain now, considerable as it is, rather than take even more later.

[Q Classic]

Originally posted by Elok
So you say-but that means accepting that this will continue until NK collapses from other causes, at which point the exact same chaos feared will unfold. Just with more advanced weaponry. It just strikes me as wiser to take the pain now, considerable as it is, rather than take even more later.

Yes, try selling that to 44 million people on the southern end of that peninsula, all of whom would have their lives irreparably changed by such an event.

It's easier to say here, where we're safe, and the only risk we really have to worry about are higher prices for consumer electronics in the near future because of something like this.

Anyway, this article is fairly thought-provoking.

[Elok]

I'm not saying it's saleable, just that it's ultimately a sounder policy than waiting for lightning to strike forever.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Elok
I'm not saying it's saleable, just that it's ultimately a sounder policy than waiting for lightning to strike forever.

Sounder for whom? The US? Japan? China? South Korea?

The North is in danger of collapse because of their economy is in shambles. The world could pay for them not to be. The world won't, but the simple fact is that war is not the only "solution", just the one that makes the US feels most morally uncorrupted.

As Q is saying, I doubt most people in South korea want to pay for our moral clarity.

[Q Classic]

Originally posted by Elok
I'm not saying it's saleable, just that it's ultimately a sounder policy than waiting for lightning to strike forever.

You're right. A leader has to do what is right for his country and his countrymen, not what is popular.

It's not like the Sunshine Policy is all that popular. But for SKorea, it's right--the cost of undertaking that is trivial compared to the total cost of ending the whole sordid affair.

And while the military solution might be sellable to everyone outside of the Korean Peninsula, Japan, and China, the fact that none of those three countries are seriously considering it due to the costs and the risks associated should suggest something other than gung-ho cowboy diplomacy.

[Elok]

Whatever. In the end, we're all responsible for our own countries. And it is not in the U.S.'s best interests to let this BS continue out of control. Nor is it particularly in theirs, seeing as they're going to have to pay the price sooner or later and the "tab" just keeps getting bigger. The fact that none of them will consider it makes the whole argument even more irrelevant than usual for 'Poly though.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Elok
Whatever. In the end, we're all responsible for our own countries. And it is not in the U.S.'s best interests to let this BS continue out of control. Nor is it particularly in theirs, seeing as they're going to have to pay the price sooner or later and the "tab" just keeps getting bigger. The fact that none of them will consider it makes the whole argument even more irrelevant than usual for 'Poly though.

Yes, everyone is repsonsible for their own country, whici is why no responsible South korean leader wants to spark a war that will lead to possibly hundreds of thousands of thei own people dead.

As for South korea having to pay the price sonner or later, again, that is false. South korea could if they wanted pay in small installments over time, investing and fixing the North korea economy in order to make sure there is no catastrophic collapse. The main two obstacles with such a policy are, the hardliners in the US and their allies in SKorea who would call it coddling the "evil tyrant" and the NKorea leadership itself, which would be afraid of losng control with increased SKorean involvement internally. They already have the ideology of Juche, or self-reliance. So in the end, its is hard liners on both sides who would make this a catastrophic event. Too bad the hardliners are currently in power.

[LordShiva]

What needs to happen is for China to 1. grow some balls, and 2. do the right thing, for a change. I'm hopeful that if they exert enough pressure on NK, they can get it to behave.

[SlowwHand]

Originally posted by Elok
Whatever. In the end, we're all responsible for our own countries. And it is not in the U.S.'s best interests to let this BS continue out of control. Nor is it particularly in theirs, seeing as they're going to have to pay the price sooner or later and the "tab" just keeps getting bigger. The fact that none of them will consider it makes the whole argument even more irrelevant than usual for 'Poly though.

How is it the U.S.'s responsiblity? I really want to know.
I ask this a million times. We get involved, complaints.
NK is so used to being on the dole, they're using the withholding as reason to go ahead.

[CrONoS]

Is anyone have posted a news on this thread about south-korea monitoring no radioactivity presence in north korea?

Otherwise, I came across this news today on t.v....

[CrONoS]

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/10/12/asia/AS_GEN_SKorea_Nuclear_Radioactivity.php

============

S.Korea detects no abnormal radioactivity after N.Korea nuke test

SEOUL, South Korea South Korea said Thursday it had detected no abnormal radioactivity levels in its country after a declared North Korea nuclear test blast this week.

Lee Moon-ki, the director general for nuclear energy at South Korea's South Korea's Science and Technology Ministry, had earlier said his country had also detected no increases of radioactivity at the suspected test site in North Korea. But he later retracted that statement, saying he misspoke.

Both his ministry and the government-affiliated Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety announced Thursday that tests of air samples in South Korea since Monday's declared nuclear test by the North have shown no signs of increased radiation.

"So far, we have not detected any abnormal level of radioactivity," said Han Seung-jae, an official at the nuclear safety institute.

Han cautioned, however, that the finding doesn't indicate that the North didn't conduct a nuclear test or that a test may have failed.

"There had been little chance of radioactivity being blown southward as the wind had been blowing toward north or east for the past few days," he said.

After Monday's underground test, North Korea announced that there had been no radioactivity leaks from the site.

================================================

[CrONoS]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6040494.stm

N Korea test - failure or fake?

North Korea's claim to have successfully detonated a nuclear bomb on Monday sent shock waves around the world.

But as scientists pore over the blast's data looking for important clues about the North's nuclear programme, one question remains unanswered - was the explosion in fact a failure, or even a fake?

The doubts stem from the size of the blast which seismic monitors around the world picked up in northern North Korea on Monday morning.

South Korean soldiers on patrol near the border with North Korea
North Korea's claim has raised tensions in the region

Within a few hours, Russia said it was "100% certain" a nuclear test had been carried out and measured it at between five to 15 kilotons.

But South Korea, France and the US have all measured it at less than one kiloton, far smaller than the 12.5 kiloton bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima in WWII.

If it was a smaller explosion - and South Korea estimated it at the equivalent of just 550 tons - it would be theoretically possible, though very difficult, for the North to have detonated that amount of conventional explosives underground.

More likely, scientists say, the test did not go to plan.

Most first-generation nuclear devices are between 10 and 20 kilotons because it is the easiest size to build, says James Acton, of the London-based Verification Research, Training and Information Centre (Vertic).

"Both from a technological as well as a political analysis, you would expect North Korea to build a 10-20 kiloton bomb. The fact that it is smaller than that suggests the test was not very successful," he said.


If this was a nuclear explosion, it would be a case of a failed explosion
Michele Alliot-Marie
French defence minister

Mr Acton said it was very difficult to tell the difference between a nuclear or a conventional explosion based on an earthquake measurement.

"At the moment, you would have to say the evidence of a nuclear test is inconclusive," he said.

France's Defence Minister Michele Alliot-Marie became the highest ranking government figure to express doubts about the test, speaking to French radio on Wednesday.

"Given its weakness, it is hard to say if it was an explosion with a very large amount of conventional explosive or indeed a nuclear explosion," she said.

"In any case, if this was a nuclear explosion, it would be a case of a failed explosion," she said.

Hunt continues

Given this uncertainty, governments and scientists are urgently working to find some proof, either way.

They are analysing the seismic data as well as testing for any radioactive material released by the blast and now in the atmosphere.

South Korea received a sophisticated radioactivity detector from Sweden on Wednesday to carry out further tests, officials said.

And US and Japanese monitoring planes based on the island of Okinawa are also believed to be flying in the region.

But officials have warned that the process could take time, and South Korea has warned it could be two weeks before conclusive proof is available.

Others, including one French nuclear official, have warned that Monday's nuclear test may never be confirmed.

Xavier Clement of France's Atomic Energy Commission said the seismic data had to be sifted to differentiate the blast from background noise of subterranean movement.

"It is possible that this cannot be done, given the weakness of the signals compared to the background noise," he told the French news agency AFP.

More tests?

Despite these uncertainties, China - North Korea's closest ally - has not given any indication it doubts Pyongyang's claim about the nuclear test, denouncing it in unusually strong words as "brazen".

And North Korea again on Wednesday reiterated that its scientists had "successfully conducted an underground test under secure conditions", and even threatened more tests if the US did not change its "hostile" policy.

Further North Korean tests could be an interesting indicator of the country's intentions and capabilities, the BBC's defence and security correspondent Rob Watson says.

A one-off test may be a sign it has only limited quantities of weapons-grade plutonium and has some way to go on the design of a nuclear weapon.

A second test would answer those doubts, and clear up the uncertainties still lingering from the first.

[CrONoS]

With the informations, that we have now we can conclude:
They have failed their long range missile; and possibly; they have failed(or fake) their nuclear test...