The College Football Thread 2006

[Drake Tungsten]

If Missouri goes undefeated in the Big 12, I don't think they have any problem getting into the title game, unless two BCS conference teams ahead of them now also go undefeated. They'll have to beat Oklahoma, Nebraska and probably Texas (in the Big 12 Championship game) to go undefeated. If they manage that, I'd imagine they'll be getting plenty of respect from the human and computer polls.

[MRT144]

when they have more points than usc

[DanS]

Originally posted by MRT144
when they have more points than usc

Lame response.

[Guynemer]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
Dan's ranking of USC at #2 is fine if he's doing an AP-style ranking based on performance over the season. USC is undefeated and has played a really tough schedule, so they've earned a high ranking.

Agreed. There are always debates, but to argue so vociferously that USC isn't #2 seems silly.

[Guynemer]

Thus far:

1. Ohio State (7) 70
2. Michigan 54
3. Florida 52
4. USC 36
5. Tennessee 34
5. West Virginia 34
7. Louisville 33
8. Texas 27
9. Cal 25
10. Notre Dame 11

ARV: Clemson 5, Iowa 2, Auburn 1, LSU 1.

[MRT144]

Originally posted by DanS


Lame response.

for a lame question

[MRT144]

Originally posted by Guynemer


Agreed. There are always debates, but to argue so vociferously that USC isn't #2 seems silly.

its more so the claim that they are a close #2 to OSU's #1

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by DanS
Let's do a little exercise. What's the scenario whereby West Virginia, Louisville, Rutgers, Missouri, or Boise State secure enough points in the BCS to get into the title game?

Boise State probably doesn't have a chance. WVU and Louisville have a great oppertunity. Whoever wins that game will be ranked #2 if every other team has 1 loss. Even if the computer ranks them low (but not too low, I imagine beating the other, and a potentially 8-9 win Rutgers team and 8 win Pitt will help), I believe the polls are weighted much more heavily.

[DanS]

The answer is... It's going to be extremely difficult for any of those teams to get in the big game, even if they win out. Missouri seems to have the best shot.

Setting aside Boise State for the moment (because it isn't even playing a single ranked team this year), consider that Sagarin's ELO-CHESS -- an example of what will be used for the BCS -- has two 2-loss teams (Penn State and Washington) ahead of all of the remaining 4 that I mentioned. Simply put, they have an immense amount of ground to cover over even a pair of 2-loss teams after only 6 games, and beating a couple Pittsburghs of Div I-A likely will be insufficient to get them in the top 3 of the computer rankings under realistic scenarios.

2/3rds of the BCS is determined by the coaches' poll and the Harris poll. So if those teams are ranked 4th in the computer polls, they probably will need to be #1 in both human polls. I think this unlikely in the extreme, especially considering the the composition of the coaches who are voting.

[Imran Siddiqui]

It is interesting you say that because in last year's final BCS rankings, Notre Dame was rated 5th and 6th by the human polls, but 10th in the computer rankings. Their final BCS rank? Yep... 6th.

While LSU was tied with Notre Dame in the computer polls at 10. The human polls has them at 10 as well... they finished 12th in the final BCS rankings.

Recall the number of points scored in each poll matters. So if someone is #2 by only a handful of points in the poll over #3, and #3 is ranked as, say, #1 in the BCS, then it'll make a big difference.

Of course as the season goes on they equal out, but for the most part, its not as great of a pull by the computer rankings as you seem to think.


Though, going back to the number of undefeates and whether it is rare there are so many. Recall that last year (2005 season) by the time the first BCS ranking came out (Oct 17), the top 5 teams were all undefeated (USC, Texas, Virginia Tech, Georgia, and Alabama). That's not counting Texas Tech who was 7th, UCLA who was 9th, and Penn State was who was 10th.

[DanS]

So my feeling was correct, at least as far as 2005 goes for the teams with good chances of making it to the title game.

[DanS]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
It is interesting you say that because in last year's final BCS rankings, Notre Dame was rated 5th and 6th by the human polls, but 10th in the computer rankings. Their final BCS rank? Yep... 6th.

I assume that there is a larger variation in the rankings once you get out of the top 3 or 4 or so, which would result in those kinds of things.

[mrmitchell]

*bump*
btw, the only six numbers in Arkansas this week:

4-1
3-0
27-10

[Guynemer]

A number of dangerous games for unbeaten teams this week:

Ohio State at Michigan State: this is exactly the sort of game that exactly this sort of MSU team always seems to find a way to win. That said... not happening this time. Odds of loss: 10%.

Florida at Auburn: Will the Tigers rebound at home after last week's catastrophe? This will be a tough go for the Gators, and though I'm not entirely sold on them yet, I think they have enough to stay unbeaten another week. Odds of loss: 40%.

USC vs. Arizona State: USC has looked awful vulnerable in the past few weeks, but Arizona State is not nearly as good as USC's recent competition, in particular on defense. I smell blowout. Odds of loss: 5%.

Michigan at Penn State: Yikes. Night game, without their star receiver, against a team aching for revenge. Big Blue will need a generous helping of Mike Hart and big defensive plays to win. I think they get it, but Michigan will be challenged for the first time all season. Odds of loss: 45%.

West Virginia vs. Syracuse: It appears that Syracuse isn't nearly as bad a team as everyone expected. But neither are they anywhere near as good a team as West Virginia. Odds of loss: 5%.

Louisville vs. Cincinnati: The Bearcats played both OSU and Virginia Tech tough before being overwhelmed by superior talent. Expect the same to happen here; close at the half, but not at the end. Odds of loss: 15%.

Missouri at Texas A&M: The Aggies fattened up on patsies in the nonconference season, inflating their record to 5-1. That said, this is never an easy win for visitors, and this is where the Tigers undefeated run ends. Odds of loss: 75%.

Boise State at New Mexico State: Ummmm... no. Odds of loss: 5%.

Rutgers at Navy: The Middies look good this year, but the Knights have that aura about them that will carry them through. Right up until they get slaughtered by Louisville in a few weeks. Odds of loss: 30%.

[DanS]

I would give Michigan State a better chance than 10%. I agree that the Michigan - Penn State game has a high chance of an upset. Also, I think Navy has better than even odds of beating Rutgers.

These are all home teams of the type that can always surprise you. I didn't realize that so many of the potential upsets were playing at home.