Middle East Continued Again...

[Serb]

Originally posted by Eli
One of the big ones, I cant remember it's name. ITR, RTR, whatever.

The ITR doesn't exist, at least not in Russia.
I've never heard before about the fancy story you've mentioned.

[Eli]

I've never heard before about the fancy story you've mentioned.

They opened the whole edition with it, two days ago.

[Eli]

I've never heard before about the fancy story you've mentioned.

They opened the whole edition with it. That's was two days ago.

[Serb]

So what was so special about that anti-Israel protest in Russia (I have not see it in news anyway)? This morning, during my breakfast, I was watchning Euronews and they didn't say a single word about protests in Moscow, while said a lot about anti-Islael demonstrations in Europe.

[Eli]

That was the only thing they showed about the conflict in that edition. No reports of the fighting.

[Serb]

Just who were they? What channel?

[Elok]

There was a disturbing piece in today's WaPo by a Lebanese prof who's been studying Hezbollah for years (and is definitely not their partisan). His conclusion: Hezbollah abducted those soldiers in the hopes of getting exactly what has happened to happen. An Israeli invasion initially gets people POed at Hezbollah for provoking it, but already many people are feeling more anger towards the people who are actually dropping the bombs and such; when a bomb burns your son's face off, it's hard to blame anyone more than the people who dropped it. Especially not when Hezbollah is obviously fighting back against the people dropping the bombs, albeit rather pathetically. Hezbollah was founded in the wake of a war against Israel, as the papers have been pointing out.

Since the elimination of Hezbollah depends largely on the Lebanese getting sick of this and turning against them, Israel's only other option would be to just kill all of Lebanon, and genocide is obviously not an option for a nation founded as a refuge after the Holocaust. In the meanwhile, Israel's getting lots of bad press about dead, injured, and homeless civilians, "all over two kidnapped soldiers."

At least, that's the article's analysis. I don't know how accurate it is, but if it's right, the scariest thing about it is that it's describing a no-win situation.

[Imran Siddiqui]

His conclusion: Hezbollah abducted those soldiers in the hopes of getting exactly what has happened to happen.

Exactly. It's amazing that Isreal hasn't figured that out by now. The reason a group of Hamas and Hezbollah forces took Isreali soldiers was to get Isreal to lash out! It's the "Wag the Dog" phenomenon, but in this case not to cover up anything, but simply the get the people to rally 'round behind the group. Though Hamas has to be pissed at Hezbollah for stealing their potential thunder.

[DinoDoc]

Well that does tend to (or at least should) give pause to those saying that being in government moderates you. Not only do these parties seem incapable of fixing the potholes so to speak but they seem intent on raining down more suffering on their people and placing them in an even worse position than before.

[Elok]

I thought Hzb wasn't government, just a private militia the government lacked the power and/or guts to keep a leash on? That's what I've heard.

In any case, can we agree that these are the sort of times for which alcohol was invented?

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Elok
I thought Hzb wasn't government, just a private militia the government lacked the power and/or guts to keep a leash on? That's what I've heard.

They have seats in government, IIRC.

In any case, can we agree that these are the sort of times for which alcohol was invented?

Yes.

[GePap]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
Well that does tend to (or at least should) give pause to those saying that being in government moderates you. Not only do these parties seem incapable of fixing the potholes so to speak but they seem intent on raining down more suffering on their people and placing them in an even worse position than before.

Except that the Shia in Lebanon will blame Israel for the damage; after all, Israel did not HAVE to bomb and shell their villages to get the soldiers back (the excuse). They could always have negotiated for their release.

The point is Hizbullah HAS fixed the potholes, set up social services, gives out college scholarships. The Shioa in southern Lebanon see Hizbullah as their party, the one that cares about them, the only one as well willing to take a stand vs. the enemy. All of that is more than the Sunni Druze and Christian central government can say about what they have done for the Shia. Israel's bombardment will change none of that, specially once rebuilding time comes, and guess who will probably be most active in the south of Lebanon?

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by GePap
and guess who will probably be most active in the south of Lebanon?

Well barring somesort of massive breakthrough I'd have to guess the same people who hold sovereignty over the area, Hezbollah seeing as how they've pushed the legitimate government out of the area for so long.

[GePap]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
Well barring somesort of massive breakthrough I'd have to guess the same people who hold sovereignty over the area, Hezbollah seeing as how they've pushed the legitimate government out of the area for so long.

The problem is that the Beirut has not had control of southern Lebanon for 50 years. The Sunnis, Druze, and Christians jockeying for position in the center ande north never gave a crap about the poor Shia in the south. Then Palestinians essentially took over, until driven out by the Israeli invasion. Then the Israelis miscalculated horribly, and with the impetus of the Iranian Revolution the Southern Shia empowered themselves, and the result is Hizbullah.

For Hizbullah to lose power, the ethnic mess that is Lebanon has to sort itself. But given that the country is a powderkeg as is, its going to take some serious actions, and I doubt anyone is ready to take them.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

His conclusion: Hezbollah abducted those soldiers in the hopes of getting exactly what has happened to happen.

Exactly. It's amazing that Isreal hasn't figured that out by now.

You think Israel is stupid, that they actually think slaughtering a nation will finally work this time, even though it's never worked before?

Israel is doing this because it gets something out of it, and I don't mean the dismantling of Hezbollah, cuz that's not gonna happen due to Israeli airstrikes.

In no particular order Israel gains: a frightened and manipulated public that is willing to let Israel continue down its militarized path. In addition, this heightened security atmosphere helps continue the occupation of Palestine.

It destablizes an Arab democracy which was taking off. As long as Israel can claim that there are no other democracies inthe ME, it can call on the support of moderates who don't/won't look to close.

It stirs up anti-Israeli feelings elsewhere, leading to more Jews leaving their home countries and emigrating to Israel.