Middle East Continued Again...

[Ramo]

I believe Asad's family is Drueze though I could be wrong.

They're Alawites. A vaguely Shia spllitter group that makes up just a few percent of the Syrian population.

[Elok]

Huh. Sudden thought: what would happen if hzb suddenly announced that the two soldiers were killed by Israeli bombs the first night, and due to the chaos they'd only just confirmed it? With the situation on the ground, they're quite capable of making it true...

[chequita guevara]

Because then they'd lose any negotiating leverage they think they have. Obviously they are mistaken, as they have no leverage. Israel seems perfectly willing to sacrifice those two.

[Kuciwalker]

And good for Israel - they should be willing to sacrifice two soldiers for a significant strategic gain.

[Imran Siddiqui]

If by gain, you mean.. loss?

[Kuciwalker]

We've been hashing that out in several threads (of conversation) already - no need to start a new one. The success of their action isn't related to my point, which is that they ought to view the recovery of the two soldiers as of very low strategic importance.

[germanos]

Originally posted by Elok
the scariest thing about it is that it's describing a no-win situation.

The most likely outcome of any war

[Eli]

Che, sometimes you make no sense at all: (well, most of the time )

You think Israel is stupid, that they actually think slaughtering a nation will finally work this time, even though it's never worked before?

When was the last time Israel had "slaughtered" a nation?

In no particular order Israel gains: a frightened and manipulated public that is willing to let Israel continue down its militarized path.

Sounds paranoid, but could be true.

In addition, this heightened security atmosphere helps continue the occupation of Palestine.

Yeah. The same prime minister whose greatest action was supposed to have been a Gaza style withdrawal from the West Bank and who built his entire political capital on that withdrawal is now going to war in order to help do the exact opposite?

It destablizes an Arab democracy which was taking off. As long as Israel can claim that there are no other democracies inthe ME, it can call on the support of moderates who don't/won't look to close.

That makes no sense whatsoever. A failed state on one's border is one hell of a headache. Why would Israel encourage this just to keep another pro-Israel meme going?

It stirs up anti-Israeli feelings elsewhere, leading to more Jews leaving their home countries and emigrating to Israel.

And it also brings countless images of half the country being bombarded, reminding the Jews abroad how safe they actually are.

You sound like a conspiracy theorist Che. How about this simple, all too human reason for the war:
Hizballah has been a thorn in Israel's side for 24 years. There's a new Prime Minister who must put up a show of strength (think of politics among bullies, if you dont fight the first time, you'll become the punching bag of everyoone). A good opportunity to blast Hizballah to pieces had appeared and this opportunity was used.

There are no conspiracies and there are no hidden motives of social control. All there is, is a will to finally get revenge on the guys who've been pestering you for decades.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Elok
I thought Hzb wasn't government, just a private militia the government lacked the power and/or guts to keep a leash on? That's what I've heard.

In any case, can we agree that these are the sort of times for which alcohol was invented?

Hezbollah started as a Shi'ite militia during the civil war but redirected itself towards fighting Israeli occupation after Israel invaded Lebanon (Or was invited in by the legal government depending upon your view and whither you prefer the Maronite Christian view or the view shared by the Sunnis and Shi'a). After the civil war ended Hezbollah stopped fighting the Sunni and Christian groups in Lebanon and concentrated exclusively on attacking Israel for occupying a portion of Lebanon. The Israelis had pulled back from Beruit as part of the peace deal but had kept a 20 mile demiliterized zone to prevent rocket attacks in Israel. It was this 20 mile zone which the Israelis left in 2000 and which Hezbollah now controls as virtually a soveriegn state.

The current unity government in Lebanon (founded last year) attempted to give seats to all parties which enjoyed significant political support so Hezbollah was given seats in the national parlement and became part of the ruling coalition though a minority player.

[Guardian]

In 2004, Israel released 436 prisoners in exchange for the return of one kidnapped businessman and 3 dead soldiers.

Today, Israel holds about 9000 Palestinian detainees and I guess somebody thought it was time for another prisoner exchange. In their wisdom, these "somebodies" thought they could arrange such an exchange if they could just get their hands on an Israeli soldier or two. The idea that "no one is left behind" is virtually sacred within the Israeli military, so it's clear that they'd have to do something. They'd probably get mad and drop some bombs and shoot some shells first, but after a day or two they'd be willing to talk to ensure the safe return of their soldier. The release of Palestinian prisoners would be seen as a victory for the militants and they would emerge strengthened even though they'd taken some losses. Also, they would be crying bloody murder every time an Israeli bomb injured or killed a civilian or damaged civilian property, and even though the Palestinian militants were the ones who initiated the crisis, this would help turn public opinion against Israel for bombing civilians.

In it's own bizzare, evil, twisted kind of way, this makes sense, doesn't it?


On the other side, Israel needs to do something to get their soldiers back, but they also need to make sure this doesn't happen again next week or next month or next year. The reasoning that "giving in will only invite further attacks" is a valid point, but that's actually what Israel did 2 years ago - thus "inviting" this latest attack if you choose to see it that way. Eventually, Israel may end up negotiating and possibly releasing some prisoners again to get their soldiers back, but before they can do anything like that again, they have to set the price for such an exchange so high that nobody will want to try it again in the foreseeable future. And while they're at it, this is a great opportunity to significantly weaken the Hizballah, who have been steadily growing stronger and stronger in the years that have passed since the Israelis completed their pull-out from southern Lebanon. Israel kept their side of the agreement and pulled out, but Lebanon and the international community did not keep our side and disarm the Hizballah. Israel now has a problem lurking literally right on their doorsteps and it's pretty clear that nobody else is going to take care of this problem for them. So, the opportunity for Israel to actually get in there and do something serious about this problem themselves was simply too good to pass up.

In it's own bizzare, evil, twisted kind of way, this too makes sense, doesn't it?

So, both sides have reason to fight and both sides have something to gain from not being the first to make concessions. But neither side really wants this and everyone wants it to stop - eventually…
The thing they can't agree on is how to stop it and what the Middle East should look like when they're done. This has been the problem all along...

[Proteus_MST]

btw.
Ahmadinejad, the president of Iran, wrote a 10 pages long letter to Angela Merkel.
The letter itself won´t be published (as the office of our chancellor concluded, that the letter was written for just this purpose, i.e. get publicity ) but according to employees of the office, the letter was very weird, and mostly antisemitic.
Its main theme was about the situation in Lebanon qand obviously the letter also contained references to the holocaust and large passsages where Ahmadinejad wrote about the reasons why Israel has no right to exist.

[MOBIUS]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
And good for Israel - they should be willing to sacrifice two soldiers for a significant strategic gain.

Thus proving the whole point of attacking Lebanon was nothing to do with saving the soldier's lives...

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by MOBIUS
Thus proving the whole point of attacking Lebanon was nothing to do with saving the soldier's lives...

I thought this has been public knowledge for a few days now

Does Israel still claim that the aggression will stop if the prisoners are released? I thought they now fully admitted that their aim was now the destruction of Hezbollah.

[MOBIUS]

Lebanon's two fighting forces
By Martin Patience
BBC News, Beirut



Hezbollah guerrillas have been firing rockets into northern Israel
Lebanon is a country with two fighting forces - the Lebanese army and Hezbollah's guerrilla outfit.

For now, the Lebanese army has remained in its barracks during the current conflict with Israel.

It is Hezbollah that is launching attacks against Israeli soldiers and civilians from the south of Lebanon.

The issue of military strength is a sensitive subject in a country torn apart by 15 years of civil war.

Soldiers are drawn from Lebanon's main religious groups - Shia, Sunni, Druze and Christians - in an effort to make the army a truly national force.

With 38,000 soldiers, it is a small conventional army designed to keep the peace on Lebanese soil.

But it is ill-equipped for the job, says former Lebanese army general Amin Hoteit.

Secretive

The army lacks basic military equipment - such as anti-aircraft missile defences - to fight Israel. The Lebanese air force has no jets and the navy no warships.


Lebanon's army has been watching while the country is being bombed
"The Lebanese army don't have anyone to fight," says Gen Hoteit. "They can't fight the Israeli aircraft in the sky."

With a weak Lebanese army the importance of Hezbollah's military capabilities increases, he adds.

Gen Hoteit describes Hezbollah as "an integral part of Lebanon's defences" although he insists there are no official links between the two fighting forces.

Whereas the Lebanese army is a conventional fighting force, Hezbollah is non-conventional force launching guerrilla raids on Israeli targets.

It is a secretive organisation making it difficult to gauge its strength.

But military analysts believe the organisation has thousands of fighters who are highly trained and well equipped to fight a guerrilla war.

Fighting image

Led by Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah emerged in the early 1980s, following the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982.


The Lebanese nation privatised the liberation of the south country

Elias Hanna
Former Lebanese general

A group of Shia Muslims clerics decided to form a group of fighters to drive Israeli troops from the south of Lebanon. Israel withdrew its forces in 2000.

It was the impotence of the Lebanese army in the south that bolstered Hezbollah's image as a fighting force.

"The Lebanese nation privatised the liberation of the south," says former Lebanese army general Elias Hanna.

"Hezbollah restored dignity of the Arab world by liberating the south of Lebanon for the first time in our history."

Most Lebanese citizens were thankful that Hezbollah had ended Israel's occupation there. But now some of these civilians believe Hezbollah have pulled them into a war not of their choosing.

They view Hezbollah as Lebanon's "second army", accountable only to its supporters and not the government.

Veiled threat

There have been repeated calls to disarm Hezbollah, including a UN resolution in 2004. But Hezbollah have rejected all such suggestions.


Some Lebanese blame Hezbollah for the crisis
While the clamour grows ever louder in the international diplomatic arena, Gen Hanna says the Lebanese army would be unwilling to move against the organisation.

Many of the soldiers in the Lebanese army are Shia Muslims, the constituency of Hezbollah.

"How can a Shia soldier go and disarm another Shia who he believes has the right to resist Israel," asks Gen Hanna.

Currently, Israel says it only has Hezbollah in its targets. But the Lebanese government has launched a veiled threat it might start fighting if Israel deploys a large ground force in southern Lebanon.

"We will defend our land until the last soldier, we will pay the price for our land," Lebanese Defence Minister Elias Murr told the BBC.

But for now, it is Hezbollah doing Lebanon's fighting.

So basically even if the Lebanese govt wanted to do anything about hezb, they would get their asses handed to them on a plate!

Hence Israel's attacks on Lebanese bridges, airports, military, milk factories, ports, bridges etc is effectively a war crime - because they are attacking a country which is both not responsible for, and incapable of acting against hezb...

As for hezb, this org is essentially an Israeli creation by virtue of the fact it was created in '82 in reaction to Israel's terrible and murderous invasion of Lebanon!

Yes, it's objectives were achieved in 2000 but then the Syrians held on in Leb till only last year and Leb is still under their shadow with Hariri being assassinated last year - so how the **** can you expect them to do anything remotely useful against hezb yet!!?

Here's a radical idea: enter into negotiation with hezb/syria/iran about disbanding hezb with a threat of draconian international sanctions on syria/iran if this does not come about. At the same time build up Leb's infrastructure and military on the proviso that it is to be used to enforce the demilitarisation of hezb after a certain timeframe. Also get the UN to actually peace keep, as opposed to being spectators...

That way you nurture a fledgling democracy (that's what we're supposed to be doing, right?) who will vote to keep the country on the side of the west and police themselves against hezb/syria etc. Thus crowbarring an important 'stepping stone' country out from under the disruptive influences of the region...

Of course, none of this will ever happen as the US is too chicken to slap sanctions on Iran because of oil and Israel doesn't want a strong democratic neighbour on its border to make it look bad and would far prefer jumping in and blasting the place to kingdom come as it does on a regular basis. Also the UN are toothless pussies whose 'peacekeeping' forces are in name only and are only there for target practice for when one side or the other gets bored and kills a few of them for no retaliation...

[MOBIUS]

Originally posted by Spiffor

I thought this has been public knowledge for a few days now

Does Israel still claim that the aggression will stop if the prisoners are released? I thought they now fully admitted that their aim was now the destruction of Hezbollah.

I thought it was the destruction of Lebanon, cos invading Lebanon again suddenly makes hezb a relevant entity again...

Indeed, that may have been hezb's objective all along in view of their increasing irrelevance in a country whose govt and self-determination were increasing with each and every day. And now Israel have fallen into the trap...