Middle East Continued Again...

[Az]

I really like this "Silly Hizbullah, not thinking in advance giving the evil zionists a chance to commit their um... evilry" spin they're putting on things.

[Kuciwalker]

You know, when much of the Muslim world isn't that mad at Israel for what's going on, thing must be going pretty well:

In Iran’s Streets, Aid to Hezbollah Stirs Resentment
By MICHAEL SLACKMAN

TEHRAN, July 22 — There is a huge amount of anger here about what is happening in Lebanon, but it is not all the result of Israeli bombs, missiles and artillery.

“Of course I am angry,’’ said Hamid Akbari, 30, a deliveryman. “All our income is going to Palestine and Hezbollah.”

For decades, Iran has been Hezbollah’s prime patron, helping create it as a Shiite Muslim militia and then nurture it with money, expertise and weapons. But now that Hezbollah is in the midst of full-blown fighting with Israel, Iranian officials have been adamant in insisting that they had nothing to do with the events that set off the crisis.

Part of the reason may be fear, or concern, that the United States and Europe would punish Iran, if it were proved otherwise. But Iranian officials may have a wary eye on their public. In interviews in central Tehran Saturday, person after person said the same thing: Iran should worry about Iran’s problems and not be dragged down by others’ battles.

“We Iranians have a saying,” said Ali Reza Moradi, 35, a portrait artist who works in a small booth downtown. “We should save our own house first and then save the mosque. A lot of people think this way. The government should help its people first, and then help the people in Lebanon.”

With the ouster of the Sunni-led government in Iraq, and the routing of the Taliban in Afghanistan, Iran has seen its regional influence grow stronger. As the Sunni Arab capitals of Cairo, Amman, Jordan, and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, witnessed their own political influence in the region waning, Iran tried to fill the gap. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has become extremely popular among many Arabs for his strong anti-Western and anti-Israeli language. And Iran’s role as patron of Hezbollah and Hamas has given it unrivaled influence over two radical groups that have set the regional agenda, more so than governments.

But the picture in Iran itself is a bit more nuanced. Although Iran sits atop one of the largest known oil reserves, it cannot refine enough gasoline to meet its own needs — and so prices are rising. Mr. Ahmadinejad may have been elected on a populist economic message, but on the streets people report more pain, more unemployment and higher prices.

Hamidreza Jalaipour, a sociologist and former government official, said that on this point Iranians might agree but that they were also fickle.

“Iranians are very sensitive and want our money to stay in the country and be spent for Iranians to solve their problems,’’ Mr. Jalaipour said. “But, you cannot rely on what they say because their opinion changes quickly, and if the war continues, they might say something else.”

Nevertheless, the Hezbollah crisis occurred at a time of already heightened anxiety. Many Iranians were already nervous about the potential for sanctions as a result of their government’s nuclear program. Iranians have rallied behind the line strongly promoted by their government, that nuclear power is their inalienable right. And while they may have been willing to tolerate further public isolation over something they see as their right, there is far less unity about standing up for Lebanon, many people said Saturday. Despite the country’s authoritarian leadership, Iranians are often outspoken about their political beliefs, and many were willing to be quoted by name.

“Let them fight with each other until they get tired,” said Reza Muhammadi, 33, who runs a small grocery in the center of town. “Arab countries are not supporting Hezbollah, but my country is? They are giving my share to the Arabs.”

Mr. Muhammad said he worked six days a week from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. to feed his family. So, he said, he had no tolerance for his government’s financial commitments abroad. “One percent of our budget has been approved by my Parliament to give to Palestine,” he said. “Why should I not get angry about this?”

In a recent edition of the daily newspaper Aftab-e Yazd, one reader wrote in saying: “Radio and television broadcast so many programs about Arab countries that I sometimes wonder if it is the Iranian TV or an Arab TV. Such vast and big propaganda has caused a kind of indifference and even negative sense toward Arab nations.”

Of course, such sentiments are not universal. There are people like Zahra Etefaghian, 51, who runs a small coffee shop near the art museum, who said: “We should really support them, and we should bear the consequences. At emergency times like this, we have to help Muslim people.”

But talk of direct Iranian actions in Lebanon is being officially discouraged — and denied. On Tuesday, a group calling itself the Headquarters for the Glory of Martyrs of the International Movement announced that it had an army of 55,000 would-be suicide bombers among its members and had already dispatched 27 to fight with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

A few days later Muhammad Hejazi, commander of the vigilante force known as the Basiji, said that reports about would-be suicide bombers going to Lebanon “have nothing to do with official organizations in the country.”

Everybody here, it seems, is going to great lengths to insist that Iran had no role in setting off this crisis, saying that Hezbollah was too far away, and too independent, to be controlled from Tehran.

“The Hezbollah forces have done a great job and have resisted well,” said Ali Akbar Hasehmi Rafsanjani, the former president and chairman of the Expediency Council, in recent public remarks. But, he added, “it is misleading to say that Iran and Syria are carrying this out.”

Even a figure like Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour, who had been one of the founders of Hezbollah in Lebanon, commented cautiously about Iran’s role in the current conflict. “Iran cannot play an instrumental role because of the long distance,” he told the daily Etemad Melli recently. “Besides, Arab countries consider the issue of Palestine and Lebanon as an Arab issue,” he added, suggesting that Iran, as a non-Arab nation, should keep its distance.

Whether or not Iran played a role in actually inciting the crisis seemed irrelevant to people interviewed Saturday.

Ali Muhammadi runs a small DVD shop, a closet-size booth where he sells pirated DVD’s for about $1 each. “I don’t think it’s an important issue for us,” he said of the conflict in Lebanon. “I think the government should take care of its people first.”

Nazila Fathi contributed reporting for this article.

Copyright 2006 The New York Times Company

Not to mention the positions of Egypt, Jordan, and the Saudis. Hezbollah seems largely isolated in the Arab and Muslim world.

[Dinner]

That's mainly a religious split. The sunnis don't want to support the shi'a and vice versa. Notice how Hamas isn't getting talked down but Hezbollah is even though they did the exact same things?

[Kuciwalker]

It seems to me that the action against Hezbollah differs from that against Hamas in quality and quantity.

[Sprayber]

I think the Arabs distrust and hate Iran far more than Isreal or America. Which got me to thinking. Isn't Syria mostly sunni? I was just sort of intrigued that Syria has gotten all cozy with Iran lately. No one left in the Arab world for Syria to buddy up with I guess.

I realize that the Iraq war maybe has converged interests with Iran somewhat but never to the extent that appears now.

[Dinner]

Yeah, that's just geopolitics. Asad (both younger and older) and Saddam hated each other and blamed each other for the break down of the United Aragb Republic (a half ass attempt to merge Syria and Iraq by the Ba'athists that broke down due to both Asad and Saddam wanting to be supreme dictator). Jordan's government hates Syria for backing a Palestinians coupe and then attempting to invade Jordan in the 1980's, Jordan's military was so weak that it would have worked if Israel hadn't intervined. Lebanon was a Syrian puppet but they recently gave Asad the finger. Egypt give up on pan-Arabism after the 1973 war and basically decided to focus on their domestic issues while a healthy dose of American money keeps their government moderate and anti-Syria. The Gulf states really can't be bothered with Syria while Turkey hates the Syrian government for supporting Kurdish rebels in the 80's and 90's. The Turks were so pissed off that in the late 90's they massed forces on the Syrian border and said they'd invade unless Asad stopped supporting Kurdish rebels.

At the end of the day Syria has turned to Iran because there just isn't anyone else for them.

[Barnabas]

I think the rulers of syria are all weird heretics (alawis or something like that) whom no one really knows what they believe in, so they dont have a problem in allying with non sunnies.

[Eli]

That is the point. US news never carries Hizbullah or Syrian views, and tries to balance the massive destruction in Lebanon with the far smaller destruction in Israel. That takes some logical gymnastics.

I watched the Russian news two days ago. Funny stuff. They reported about a small anti-Israel demonstration in Moscow, including a quick interview with some commie anti-semite who participated in it. An interview which consisted mostly of beeps to censor him.

Reports about the katyushas falling on Israel? The bombings in Lebanon? Naaah.

Russians.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Brachy-Pride
I think the rulers of syria are all weird heretics (alawis or something like that) whom no one really knows what they believe in, so they dont have a problem in allying with non sunnies.

I believe Asad's family is Drueze though I could be wrong.

[aneeshm]

Let us consider the worst case ( I culled this from a Hindu fundamentalist site - this is only part of their prediction , the part which I consider relevant , the rest is ideologically-motivated junk )

• Elections are held in Iraq in December 2005
• Violence continues after election day in Terror attacks aimed at Shiites
• Wrangling of the Shiites with Sunnis and Kurds for the formation of an United Iraqi administration
• Terrorists blow off Shiites Mosques, explode car bombs in Shiite localities.
• Shiite-Sunni Civil War gradually begins in Iraq but is restrained by Shiite clerics.
• Shiite clerics want to rule the whole of Iraq and not the Southern Shiite rump and call for calm to keep Iraq united under their rule (we have reached this stage today)
• New Shiite dominated administration is formed and calls for phased pullout of US forces
• US forces begin a phased pullout
• They re-locate outside the cities in isolated fortified camps
• Sunni Terrorists blow off Iraqi parliament, Presidential palace, Prime Minister’s residence
• Terrorists assassinate Ministers, Parliamentarians
• Sunni Terrorists blow off Shiites Mosques at Najaf and Karbala, assassinate Al Hakim, and Moqtada Al Sadr who are important Shiites leaders and clerics.
• A full scale civil war starts between the Sunni dominated insurgents and the new Shiite led Iraqi military dominated by the late Al Hakim’s Badr Brigades and aided by the late Al Sadr’s Mahdi Militia
• Iran sends in insurgents to back Shiites
• Saudis, Syrians, Egyptians, Kuwaitis, Palestinians send in insurgents to back Sunnis
• Saudis and Kuwaitis call for US action to stop Iran from intensifying the Iraqi civil war
• Israel bombs Iranian nuke facilities to neutralize Iran.
• Iran tries to crash missiles into Israel and Europe
• Internal rebellion breaks out in Iran
• US special forces start operating inside Iran to topple Mullah regime
• Iranian/Hezbollah forces stage terrorist attacks in Israel and in the West
• US launches an air blitz of Iran followed by a land invasion and sets up a new regime
• The son of the late Shah of Iran returns to Iran as a private citizen
• Shiite -Hezbollah led terror attacks across the West and Israel intensify
• Israel invades Lebanon to wipe out the Hezbollah threat
• Egypt/Syria threaten Israel with serious consequences.
• Terrorist attacks originating from Gaza intensify in Israel
• Israel warns Syria with military action
• Mega terror attack inside Israel
• Israel declares Syria to be culpable and launches a swift land and air assault on Syria
• Syria appeals for Arab military action to save itself
• Egypt faces a civil war with sections of the Egyptian Military under the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood launch a insurrection against the Mubarak administration.
• Pressurized by Syria and Egypt, Saudi Arabia starts feeble military action against Israel
• Israel overruns Northern Saudi Arabia and Syria in a pincer movement to join up with US forces stationed in Iraq and occupies Damascus.
• US forces enter Syria from Syrian-Iraqi border in the North, join up with Israeli military
• After the conquest of Syria, Israel turns on Egypt to help the pro Mubarak forces and annexes Sinai, crosses Suez Canal and threatens Cairo that is now in the hands of the Muslim brotherhood led Military junta.
• Another spectacular terror attack inside Israel with Dirty Bombs. Suspects traced to Saudi backed insurgents.
• Sustained IAF (Israel Air Force) nuke strike on Saudi cities, Mecca, Medina, Mena, Jiddah Riyadh, taken off the map.
• Upheaval in the entire Arab world
• Western diplomats and businessmen attacked, kidnapped, beheaded
• Anti-American riots in Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia.
• Musharraf and Yudhyono regimes under tremendous pressure to give up pro-US stance
• Musharraf assassinated by pro-Jihadi elements in Army due to his association with the US. The Jihadis last straw being his helping the Americans in finding Iran's nuke sites as a trade off for letting AQ Khan off the hook. But Mushy's gamble does not pay off, as he loses his job and life.
• Jihadi regime in Pakistan ups hostility with India
• Jihadis succeed in smuggling nuclear devices in the US and exploding them simultaneously

The scary part is that the "Isreal invades Lebanon" bit has already come true , and these made these predictions long before anybody had any idea that an Israel-Lebanon war was coming .

[Eli]

The scary part is that the "Isreal invades Lebanon" bit has already come true , and these made these predictions long before anybody had any idea that an Israel-Lebanon war was coming .

An Israel-Lebanon war is always coming. Predicting it is like predicting car accidents.

[RGBVideo]

• Upheaval in the entire Arab world

Already happening as badly as it can happen. This "the vast majority of moderate islamists will attack against us if we will offend them like this" -phrase has been used so many times as an excuse for appeasement towards Islam in the Finnish media that I've grown used to it as a standard bull**** scare tactic. Those who want to get offended get offended as quickly as they can, and I think it's safe to say after 5 years that we've already caused an "upheavel" among all of those.

Eli, what exactly do you think is the objective of the state of Israel during this offensive? No objective means no victory. You could spend a decade occupying that place after you've blown it to bits if you have no clear objective. Or is this a "search and kill" -type of operation? If yes, why not just use air-to-surface bombings?

Originally posted by Eli
I watched the Russian news two days ago. Funny stuff. They reported about a small anti-Israel demonstration in Moscow, including a quick interview with some commie anti-semite who participated in it. An interview which consisted mostly of beeps to censor him.

Reports about the katyushas falling

What channel?

[Eli]

Originally posted by VJ

Eli, what exactly do you think is the objective of the state of Israel during this offensive? No objective means no victory. You could spend a decade occupying that place after you've blown it to bits if you have no clear objective. Or is this a "search and kill" -type of operation? If yes, why not just use air-to-surface bombings?

The best case scenario will be a total destruction of Hizballah, the deployment of the Lebanese military along the border and the return of the two captured soldiers.

I wouldnt bet that this will actually happen, but I think that with some luck and effort Hizballah can be damaged enough and Syria scared enough to make them much more helpless against Lebanese and international demands to dismantle Hizballah completely or at least turn into a purely political party, without a military arm.

So "search and kill" is a good description of this operation. Why not air-to-surface? First, there were more than 1000 such attacks according to the latest news, but there's a limit to the effectiveness of precision strikes. And since carpet-bombing is not an option, land forces must be used.

What channel?

One of the big ones, I cant remember it's name. ITR, RTR, whatever.

[Timexwatch]

Originally posted by Oerdin


I believe Asad's family is Drueze though I could be wrong.

They're Alawites.

[Darius871]

Originally posted by GePap
That is the point. US news never carries Hizbullah or Syrian views

Funny, I watched a long interview with the Syrian ambassador to the UN on CNN not two days ago, and have seen plenty of footage lifted from Hizbullah's official TV station.