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And you can accurately predict when margins will be high again and time the completion of your refinery just so it will be done in time to take advantage? Dude, get thee to an oil company! Pronto!
-Arrian
-Arrian
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grog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!
The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood. -
Truly! Kid, I mean, you are really missing out on a golden opportunity here! With your unfailing intuition and business sense, you really need to hire yourself out as a consultant to big oil.
With such an unerring nose for identifying the highs and lows of this volatile market, you could make a killing!
Send your resume out man!
-=Vel=-Comment
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Projections be damned Flubber if you are going to look at them like that. I'm not going to be that concerned about 5 - 15 year old data. I'm going to think critically and make a strategic decision. I find your "maybe" answer shocking. You would be getting somewhere around 18% in the first year of the investment, which is the best year to get a large return like that.Originally posted by Flubber
Maybe-- it MIGHT look like a good investment for 2 or 10 years but what if "something" happens to kill refining margins 10 years from now. . .. . Even 10 years of reasonable returns aren't enough if the next 40 are non-existent.
I haven't seen the projections . . . nor have you. So no I don't know if I would want to be sitting on a brand new refinery. . . . Put bluntly there is insufficient data available to us and the internet would not have the stuff we need awaiting a google search
Who knows ? maybe most big oil companies project that gasoline won't be the main fuel of choice 20 years from now. . . or at least predict a reasonable probability of a greatly decreased need for refining capacityI drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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What the hell is dumb**** getting paid 400 million when he can't.Originally posted by Arrian
And you can accurately predict when margins will be high again and time the completion of your refinery just so it will be done in time to take advantage? Dude, get thee to an oil company! Pronto!
-ArrianI drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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He's prolly not a dumb****.
He convinced others that he's not a dumb****.
Predicting stuff like the spike caused by Katrina would make you Nostradamus.
It's not that Katrina, in the long term, wasn't predictable. Sure, eventually that type of storm would hit. But timing the completion of a new refinery (and one that would not have been damaged by that storm, mind you!) to coincide with it??
-Arriangrog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!
The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.Comment
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Originally posted by Arrian
He's prolly not a dumb****.
He convinced others that he's not a dumb****.
Predicting stuff like the spike caused by Katrina would make you Nostradamus, not a good oil company executive.
-Arrian
I know he's not a dumb****. My point is that no one in the refining industry built refineries when they would supposidely be most profitable. And since they did not all of their existing refineries are superprofitable. So they are making even more money than if they had all built refineries. That means nothing to you?!I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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Projections be damned Flubber if you are going to look at them like that. I'm not going to be that concerned about 5 - 15 year old data. I'm going to think critically and make a strategic decision. I find your "maybe" answer shocking. You would be getting somewhere around 18% in the first year of the investment, which is the best year to get a large return like that.
Kid, call this (toll free) phone number, and tell the operator you would like to open an account: 1-800-345-2021
When you do, do you know one of the questions she is going to ask you?
She's going to ask you for your address.
Do you know why?
She is going to send you a thing called a prospectus
I know you were probably absent that day in class when they went over this deep, dark secret, so I'll fill you in.
When investors invest....when they risk their money, one of the first things they do is look at past performance data. Historical data.
Kina like the data that has been presented to you, but which you categorically reject.
Now...I realize that all of the hundreds of millions of investors are incorrect in wanting access to this kind of information, and you, Kidicious, are correct (it's just that your rare genius is misunderstood, that's all), but you would think that somewhere out there, one of those hundreds of millions of investors (most of whom are prolly smarter than you) would have clued into your uncanny methodology?
No?
But they all do the same thing, and it's not the Kidicious way.
Why do you suppose that is?
Did someone put a stupid pill in the world water supply, and only you are immune?
Inquiring minds wanna know!
-=Vel=-Comment
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Where's that graph that shows that price is determined by demand in the long run Vel?I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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My point is that no one in the refining industry built refineries when they would supposidely be most profitable. And since they did not all of their existing refineries are superprofitable. So they are making even more money that if they had all built refineries. That means nothing to you?!
THIS is pure gold.
Until this year, new refineries were a bad investment.
This year, they became attractive.
If that holds, new ones will be built, and it would not surprise me if the president passed legislation that allowed them to be fast-tracked to save time.
You don't spend that kind of money without being sure.
Or if you do, you quickly get bought out when you stumble.
It's just that simple.
-=Vel=-Comment
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The way I see it, building extra refineries only makes sense if the margins that make the new refineries profitable are expected to last. In other words, you don't build a new refinery because of a short-term spike.Originally posted by Kidicious
I know he's not a dumb****. My point is that no one in the refining industry built refineries when they would supposidely be most profitable. And since they did not all of their existing refineries are superprofitable. So they are making even more money that if they had all built refineries. That means nothing to you?!
-Arriangrog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!
The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.Comment
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Where's that graph that shows that price is determined by demand in the long run Vel?
Where are the answers to my last three dozen or so questions, Kid?? And did you call that number yet?
-=Vel=-Comment
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The graphs I've seen, Kid, have one axis labelled "demand" and another labelled "supply."
-Arriangrog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!
The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.Comment
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Have you taken Finance 101? You want your cash flows to come in at the first year or as early as possible. 18% return is to die for for the first year.Originally posted by Arrian
The way I see it, building extra refineries only makes sense if the margins that make the new refineries profitable are expected to last. In other words, you don't build a new refinery because of a short-term spike.
-ArrianI drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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The graphs I've seen, Kid, have one axis labelled "demand" and another labelled "supply."
He missed that day in class too.
-=Vel=-Comment
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Show me one.Originally posted by Arrian
The graphs I've seen, Kid, have one axis labelled "demand" and another labelled "supply."
-ArrianI drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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