Down with the evil Gas lords II: Kaak's Revenge!

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Kaak
And none of my arguments have been directed at you...

I'm hurt . . . I don't warrant any more than "none" of your arguments when I have been such a steady participant and oppose most of what you say

Flubber ponders whether his arguments are avoided as being irrelevant or irrefutable but then goes on to ponder a more important matter . . . the toppings for his Hamburger

[Lawrence of Arabia]

someone put this thread out of its misery.

[Kaak]

it seems your posts against me are refuting arguments i never tried to make as such, they don't require much of a response

[Velociryx]

Summary of what we have learnt to date:

1) The demand for oil is increasing (self evident)

2) Many sources of supply for oil are unstable and/or threatened (obvious)

3) Until this year, building a new refinery was not a profitable venture, and was not done (save for the one refining outfit begun by an oil insider, that still hasn't broken ground) (obvious in looking at the data, tho not common knowledge before)

4) As we struggle to maintain supply, and demand increases, prices (predictably) rise. (obvious)

5) Even if someone ships us more oil, we can't refine it without additional refineries. (obvious)

6) No additional refineries will be built unless it is profitable to do so. (obvious)

7) Even if a refinery was started tomorrow, it would take a significant amount of time to complete (obvious)


In all, it appears that there's nothing really shocking here.

No startling revelations.

So at the end of the day, this is really just a b*tch thread, yes?

-=Vel=-

[Kaak]

Originally posted by Velociryx
So at the end of the day, this is really just a b*tch thread, yes?

-=Vel=-

aren't they all?

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Kaak
it seems your posts against me are refuting arguments i never tried to make as such, they don't require much of a response

So you accept that

1. Underlying oil increases can explain most of the gasoline increase and

2. there is no monoplistic conspiracy among refiners and

3. that refinery margins and profits over any reasonable time frame do not even rise to the level of "average" and so are nowhere near "high". IN fact "pathetically low" is the best way to describe them.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Velociryx
3) Until this year, building a new refinery was not a profitable venture, and was not done (save for the one refining outfit begun by an oil insider, that still hasn't broken ground) (obvious in looking at the data, tho not common knowledge before)

You wouldn't like to have your refinery up and ready today?

[Velociryx]

Mostly, yeah, but this just reeks of silliness. I mean, there's no startling information here, just a back and forth

"High prices suck...big oil = teh evil!"

"Well, as the profitabilty of new refinaries becomes attractive, new refineries will be built."

"In the mean time, big oil = teh evil!"

"What about the lean years, where refining earned negative returns? We didn't make threads bemoaning the plight of the poor oil companies, did we?"

"big oil = teh evil!"

"Yes, we got that...but until the situation...."

"big oil = teh evil!"

......

-=Vel=-

[JohnT]

Damn, Kid, if you can predict the future like that, why don't you let us know who's going to win this years World Series?

[Arrian]

With Kid's logic, he would probably pick the Royals.

-Arrian

[Velociryx]

You wouldn't like to have your refinery up and ready today?

You mean, wouldn't I like to risk several billion dollars building a new refinery on the HOPE that this one good year of returns would hold?

No thanks.

If I'm gonna bet that much money, I'd prefer to play it safe, but if you'd like to piss away your fortune, be my guest. As Flubber has sugessted, since it's that much of a no-brainer, go grab some financing and get started! Piece of cake, right?

-=Vel=-

[Velociryx]

Nahhh, with Kid logic, he'd pick a swim team...

-=Vel=-

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Kidicious


You wouldn't like to have your refinery up and ready today?

Maybe-- it MIGHT look like a good investment for 2 or 10 years but what if "something" happens to kill refining margins 10 years from now. . .. . Even 10 years of reasonable returns aren't enough if the next 40 are non-existent.

I haven't seen the projections . . . nor have you. So no I don't know if I would want to be sitting on a brand new refinery. . . . Put bluntly there is insufficient data available to us and the internet would not have the stuff we need awaiting a google search


Who knows ? maybe most big oil companies project that gasoline won't be the main fuel of choice 20 years from now. . . or at least predict a reasonable probability of a greatly decreased need for refining capacity

[Kaak]

Originally posted by Flubber



So you accept that

1. Underlying oil increases can explain most of the gasoline increase and

2. there is no monoplistic conspiracy among refiners and

3. that refinery margins and profits over any reasonable time frame do not even rise to the level of "average" and so are nowhere near "high". IN fact "pathetically low" is the best way to describe them.

No.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by JohnT
Damn, Kid, if you can predict the future like that, why don't you let us know who's going to win this years World Series?

JohnT,

It shouldn't be hard. For example, I would not be building refineries right now, because by the time the refinery is built margins will be low again. When margins decrease again I would be planning to have my refineries built right at the time when the margins go back up.

That's how most bussiness people think. That's how you make good margins.