Palestinian Elections

[Thorgal]

Now many people are going to miss Arafat...

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
and maybe Hamas will allow another free election.

I'd give this a better than 50/50 shot

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


tell me, what exactly does giving them aid buy us? I understood why we were giving the PA aid, to keep the peace process on track

The support needed to be contingent not only on the foreign relations but on plain old good government.

Corruption saps a government of legitimacy and therefore strength. Nongovernmental agencies, like Hamas, pick up the slack and garner support that way.

[lord of the mark]

Haaretz

"However, Gideon Greenstein, founder and president of The Re'ut Institute claimed the situation could have been worse.

"This is bad news but it could have been worse news. The bad news is a very clear Hamas victory. The worse news would have been a small victory for Fatah. A small victory would have meant that Hamas would be calling the shots but they would have the immunity granted by Abu Mazen [PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas]'s special status.

"Abu Mazen was untouchable from the perspective of the international community and would have provided political cover for Hamas. With this victory, Hamas is exposed at all levels - they have a majority at the grassroots, municipal, and parliamentary levels," he told The Post.

He also stressed that the situation provided a huge opportunity for Israel if it acted quickly to rally the international community to use all of its leverage on Hamas.

"This crisis is a big opportunity for Israel to create a situation where direct pressure will be applied on the Hamas leadership to revisit its ideology and its association with terrorism immediately upon entry into power.

"They are as confused as we are and the international community is. The question is, who will collect itself first? If Israel is the first to collect itself, it could rally the international community and catch Hamas unprepared. Nothing has prepared Hamas for this victory and we should remember that in the next few days." "

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Thorgal
Now many people are going to miss Arafat...

It was Arafats corruption that laid the groundwork for the Hamas win.

[Imran Siddiqui]

[q=lotm]The hope started when Arafat was buried, and when Abu Mazen promised a DIFFERENT policy, one not a cover for Hamas (though he wouldnt directly take on Hamas)[/q]

... and did basically the same thing Arafat did. Only the West looked the other way because he wasn't Arafat and that was good enough.

[Arrian]

tell me, what exactly does giving them aid buy us? I understood why we were giving the PA aid, to keep the peace process on track.

Same reason, for whatever it's worth. Surely not, you say, Hamas doesn't want peace! Ok, maybe not. Let's see what they actually do in power first.

Instead, we've manuevered ourselves into a box: we must now either stop the aid or reverse our position. Knowing this admin, I expect them to immediately cut the aid.

The main thing, for me, is the message that is being sent: "we want you to be democratic, and we will help you (or even FORCE you) to be so, but only if you vote for the guys we want to win. Otherwise, to hell with you."

-Arrian

p.s. You mention fire stations that need funding, etc. Sure, I absolutely agree. Let's cut that $4 billion a year to Israel and the $1 billion to Egypt. How much do we send to Palestine? A hundred mil? Maybe two?

[lord of the mark]

[QUOTE] Originally posted by Arrian

Same reason, for whatever it's worth. Surely not, you say, Hamas doesn't want peace! Ok, maybe not. Let's see what they actually do in power first.

If they want peace, let them revise their charter.

Instead, we've manuevered ourselves into a box: we must now either stop the aid or reverse our position. Knowing this admin, I expect them to immediately cut the aid.

I expect the euros to do the same if Hamas does not change.

The main thing, for me, is the message that is being sent: "we want you to be democratic, and we will help you (or even FORCE you) to be so, but only if you vote for the guys we want to win. Otherwise, to hell with you."

If you want to be our friend you need to be democratic, and vote for peace. If you vote for war with us or our friends, to hell with you. I dont see whats wrong with that.

"p.s. You mention fire stations that need funding, etc. Sure, I absolutely agree. Let's cut that $4 billion a year to Israel and the $1 billion to Egypt. How much do we send to Palestine? A hundred mil? Maybe two?

Well in case you havent noticed, egypt and Israel oppose terrorism, not support it. Of course I have long thought Israel should wean itself from US aid, though I know that will remove a source of US leverage. Given possible future uncertainty in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Iran, I would think the admin wants the leverage, even if the Israel Pal peace process is dead.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
[q=lotm]The hope started when Arafat was buried, and when Abu Mazen promised a DIFFERENT policy, one not a cover for Hamas (though he wouldnt directly take on Hamas)[/q]

... and did basically the same thing Arafat did. Only the West looked the other way because he wasn't Arafat and that was good enough.

arafat encouraged terrorism. Abu mazen discouraged it, ineffectively. We supportet Abu Mazen in the hope he would become more effective.

[MOBIUS]

I don't know what everyone's complaining about...

Surely this is the Palestinian equivalent of the Israelis voting in Sharon?

...and the Americans got their democracy...

[MOBIUS]

Hey, just a thought, isn't Hamas Iranian-backed?

And aren't most of the politically active shi'ites in Iraq also Iranian-backed?

Just a thought...

[Arrian]

If you want to be our friend you need to be democratic, and vote for peace. If you vote for war with us or our friends, to hell with you.

So you see it as that black/white, eh? A vote for Hamas is a vote for war? Further, if so, following your logic: the peace process is dead. Done deal. Over & out.

As for money to Israel in exchange for influence... what f'in influence?! Forgive me, but I don't see it. If anything, it seems the other way 'round.

-Arrian

[MOBIUS]

Well if Sharon can change (sort of), so can Hamas...

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Arrian


So you see it as that black/white, eh? A vote for Hamas is a vote for war? Further, if so, following your logic: the peace process is dead. Done deal. Over & out.

As for money to Israel in exchange for influence... what f'in influence?! Forgive me, but I don't see it. If anything, it seems the other way 'round.

-Arrian

if Hamas doesnt change, then Hamas cannot be a partner for peace, and any govt it heads cannot receive aid. The peace process is on hold until they change their minds. I doubt, however that Israel will attack Hamas militarily as long as Israel is not attacked. Thats already been true for several months - Israel has been attacking IJ, not Hamas.

As for US influence on Israel, my impression following theIsraeli political discussion, mainly in the Israeli papers, is that keeping Washington happy is a constant concern of the Israeli govt, and the whole Israeli polity. Im sorry, I cant go into details now - I can only suggest reading Haaretz and the Jerusalem Post on a regular basis.

[lord of the mark]

The Iron Lady speaks:

"Sen. Clinton: No Hamas recognition unless they renounce violence

By MARC HUMBERT
Asssociated Press Writer

January 26, 2006, 10:26 AM EST

COHOES, N.Y. -- Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton said Thursday the United States and all other governments should not recognize any Hamas-led Palestinian government unless the group renounces violence and recognizes Israel's right to exist.

Hamas, which has long supported violence against Israel, scored a surprising victory in this week's parliamentary elections.

"Until and unless Hamas renounces violence and terror, and renounces its position calling for the destruction of Israel, I don't believe the United States should recognize them, nor any nation in the world," said the former first lady, a potential candidate for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination.

"This is an opportunity for Hamas," she added. "If the election results hold and they are now responsible for governing the Palestinians, they have an opportunity _ if they renounce violence, if they recognize the existence of Israel _ to help provide a better life to the Palestinian people. I would hope that's the decision they would make, but it's up to them."