So when do we invade Iran?

[GePap]

Originally posted by techumseh
I realize I'm getting into this one pretty late, and I've not read the entire thread. Has anyone dealt with the theory that Iran is looking for a war with the US? This has surfaced a number of times lately in Canadian coverage of the issue. Today I see that Iran has rejected the Russian proposal to refine Iran's uranium on it's territory.

I doubt that the Iranians want war with the US, as Iran can't win a conventional war with the US, and the clerical regime would be ousted, if not defeated in the end.

But for the conservatives in Iran a combative stance and a crisis is good, since it undermines the reformers and robs them of credibility and legitimacy amongst the working poor, a constituency I don't think the reformers have ever reached.

[techumseh]

Well, the theory goes like this: The US is already quite islolated in the Islamic world, and an attack on Iran would vastly inflame Islamic opinion. As the US, no matter what it's technological superiority, can't control the entire Middle East by military means, it depends on pro-US client states, such as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

War with Iran, no matter how successful militarily, would cause a massive pan-Islamic uprising leading to the overthrow of every pro-US government in the region. The US, isolated and over-extended, would be forced to evacuate Iraq, leaving Iran politically dominant through it's relationship with the Shiite majority there.

In other words, the Iranian leadership is courting military defeat in order to win a longer term strategic victory. Is this too far-fetched? Is the Iranian leadership crazy? Or crazy like a fox?

[Geronimo]

Originally posted by techumseh
Well, the theory goes like this: The US is already quite islolated in the Islamic world, and an attack on Iran would vastly inflame Islamic opinion. As the US, no matter what it's technological superiority, can't control the entire Middle East by military means, it depends on pro-US client states, such as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

War with Iran, no matter how successful militarily, would cause a massive pan-Islamic uprising leading to the overthrow of every pro-US government in the region. The US, isolated and over-extended, would be forced to evacuate Iraq, leaving Iran politically dominant through it's relationship with the Shiite majority there.

In other words, the Iranian leadership is courting military defeat in order to win a longer term strategic victory. Is this too far-fetched? Is the Iranian leadership crazy? Or crazy like a fox?

I'd say it's plausible. It does require the leadership to have a zealous disregard for their own personal safety however. If the leadership of Iran are cynical materialistic exploiters of their position as is so often the case then of course your scenario is quite unlikely. But who really knows whether the Iranian leadership is composed of true believers in their own propaganda or are merely another run of the mill group of self centered elites?

[atomant]

Before any major military operation, there are always tell tale signs. With all the talk about Israel or the United States bombing Iran's nuclear weapons program, it would be wise to check for the signs before taking the pundit prattle too seriously.



The U.S. Navy stages a "surge exercise" and moves six carrier battle groups into the Indian Ocean.

A "regularly scheduled exercise" moves Patriot Missile Batteies to Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. These exercises happen from time to time, but if they happen when other things are happening…

Movement of B-52 and B1B bombers to the island of Diego Garcia (in the Indian Ocean).

Deployment of F117 stealth bombers and F-22 fighters to anywhere in the Persian Gulf.



Deployment of B-2 Stealth Bombers to Guam, where there are special facilities for maintaining these aircraft.

Lockdown of Whitman Air Force Base (where most B-2 bombers are stationed) in Missouri.

Increased delivery of Pizza to Pentagon

Sudden loss of cell service near some air force bases (from which heavy bombers would depart). At the same time, there would be sightings of Middle Eastern looking guys around these bases, trying to get their cell phones to work, while being observed by what appears to be FBI agents.

Deployment of KC-135/KC-10 aerial tankers to Diego Garcia, Guam and the Persian Gulf.

America asks nations neighboring Iran for basing and over flight rights.

These warning signs are no secret, and intelligence officers regularly run down their check lists. As a result, nations will sometimes stage a false alert by deliberately performing many of the items on someone's check list, with no intention of following through.

[Alexander's Horse]

civ 2 games never finished....

[Drake Tungsten]

Before any major military operation, there are always tell tale signs. With all the talk about Israel or the United States bombing Iran's nuclear weapons program, it would be wise to check for the signs before taking the pundit prattle too seriously...

If you're going to quote directly from StrategyPage, you should really throw a link up...

[Vince278]

Originally posted by GePap
Re: look above.

We'll just have to wait and see.

[Vince278]

Originally posted by atomant
Increased delivery of Pizza to Pentagon

That brings back memories. I was happy when Starbucks opened a cafe there. Seriously though, I heard another way was to count cars in the parking lot after hours.

[atomant]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten

Before any major military operation, there are always tell tale signs. With all the talk about Israel or the United States bombing Iran's nuclear weapons program, it would be wise to check for the signs before taking the pundit prattle too seriously...

If you're going to quote directly from StrategyPage, you should really throw a link up...

Thought i did.. opps.... I usually do

[atomant]

Originally posted by Alexander's Horse
civ 2 games never finished....

Another week and we will be up and running with the graphics card..... then i can beat you at civ iv.....

[Alexander's Horse]

promises promises

[Joseph]

Originally posted by atomant
Before any major military operation, there are always tell tale signs. With all the talk about Israel or the United States bombing Iran's nuclear weapons program, it would be wise to check for the signs before taking the pundit prattle too seriously.

Those signs have already happen. Last week, Bush, Chenny, Rumy, and Rice said Iran is our biggest threat.
Look for the week after the Nov election.
Reason: If the GOP hold both houses, no problem for Bush. If the Demo get the House, they would control the Money come Jan 1, 2007. Bush could bomb until Jan 1. If the Demo get the Senate and not the House Bush is in better shape. They could vote against the bombing but not stop it, because the house control the money. If the Demo won both, then Bush would be out to lunch for the next 2 years.

[atomant]

Originally posted by Joseph
Those signs have already happen. Last week, Bush, Chenny, Rumy, and Rice said Iran is our biggest threat.
Look for the week after the Nov election.
Reason: If the GOP hold both houses, no problem for Bush. If the Demo get the House, they would control the Money come Jan 1, 2007. Bush could bomb until Jan 1. If the Demo get the Senate and not the House Bush is in better shape. They could vote against the bombing but not stop it, because the house control the money. If the Demo won both, then Bush would be out to lunch for the next 2 years.

I am trying to think what analogy would be a good fit here:

"if you live in a glass 'house' don't thow democrats"?
"A JDAM in the hand is worth two in the Bush"?

[Joseph]

Originally posted by atomant


I am trying to think what analogy would be a good fit here:

"if you live in a glass 'house' don't thow democrats"?
"A JDAM in the hand is worth two in the Bush"?

Think back 3 years ago.
Bush, Chenny, Rumy, Powell, and Rice said Iraq is our biggest threat.

[atomant]

Originally posted by Joseph
Think back 3 years ago.
Bush, Chenny, Rumy, Powell, and Rice said Iraq is our biggest threat.

Personally, I think an invasion is inevitable, provided there is not a coup first (unlikely I know).