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  • And so it begins?

    Apple sales outlook rattles shares
    Wed Jan 18, 2006 5:50 PM ET

    By Duncan Martell

    SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL.O: Quote, Profile, Research) on Wednesday forecast current-quarter results below Wall Street expectations, after strong holiday sales of its iPod led to a near-doubling in quarterly earnings.

    Apple shares fell about 3 percent in volatile after-hours trading following the results.

    Apple's chief financial officer also said the company's then-pending shift to Intel Corp. (INTC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) microchips for its Mac computers caused it to lose some holiday-quarter sales.

    Apple shares, which had gained almost 15 percent since the end of 2005 as the market reacted to booming holiday sales of its market-leading music player, briefly gave back about half of those gains late on Wednesday in reaction to the company's disappointing current-quarter forecast.

    "Their guidance being overly conservative for next quarter, that's what's causing the most chaos in the shares today," said Jim Grossman, portfolio manager at the Thrivent Technology Fund. "People want a little more explanation of why they're giving such conservative guidance."

    For the current quarter, Apple forecast earnings per share before items of 42 cents on revenue of $4.3 billion. Analysts had expected the company to earn a profit before items of 51 cents per share, on average, on revenue of $4.83 billion.

    Apple, which also makes Macintosh computers, said net income for its first fiscal quarter ended in December rose to $565 million, or 65 cents per share, from $295 million, or 35 cents per share, on a split-adjusted basis. Revenue rose 64 percent to $5.75 billion from $3.49 billion.

    Apple Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer said the company had seen "a bit of a pause" in its sales of Mac computers ahead of its widely watched shift to Intel microprocessors.

    Apple said again that it had sold 14 million iPods in the holiday quarter, a figure Chief Executive Steve Jobs disclosed last week at the Macworld conference. The company also sold more than 1.25 million Mac computers -- fewer than some analysts expected.

    One analyst said that Apple's runaway success with the iPod had focused investor attention on the performance of the Mac product line.

    "Historically the Mac has been the primary revenue generator," said Nittin Gupta, an analyst with the Yankee Group. "At this rate of growth, the Mac is not going to be their primary revenue driver. If they become too dependent on iPods and digital audio players, that's a risk over the long term. It's going to be hard to maintain those iPod shipment numbers."

    Apple shares trade at 36.5 times projected earnings per share before items of $2.26 for fiscal 2006 ending in September, compared with a multiple of 51 times Google's 2006 estimated profit per share.

    Apple shares more than doubled in 2005, after tripling in 2004. In the past 12 months, its shares are up more than 140 percent, compared with a more than 130 percent increase in shares of Google Inc. (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile, Research).

    Apple has sold some 42 million iPods since their introduction in October 2001 and the company has about 75 percent of the U.S. market for digital music players.

    Apple shares fell $2.22, or 2.6 percent, to close at $82.49 on Nasdaq, on a day when tech stocks were dragged down by disappointing results from Yahoo and Intel on Tuesday. In extended trading on Inet, the stock fell below $78 before rebounding. The stock recovered to $79.71 after-hours, a drop of 3 percent from the Nasdaq close.
    "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
    Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

    Comment


    • It doesn't surprise me one bit that Apple's computer sales declined a bit — it makes perfect sense, what with (at the time) was the expected unveiling of the Intel-powered iMacs six months or so down the road. I mean, who the heck's going to want to purchase soon-to-be legacy machines? And odds are, had the Intel-powered iMac/MacBook *not* been introduced last week, the decline in sales would have continued a bit as more people waited for the new systems to be introduced.

      It's possible Apple computer sales will continue to be "down" for most of 2006 as folks dicker over whether or not to buy a new InteliMac, particularly so since the towers have yet to be converted and because a good number of folks will wait for the first batch of the new iMacs/MacBooks to be sold before they take the plunge (have to avoid the first-round bugs, after all). Overall, I wouldn't be the least bit suprised to *not* see a spike in Apple's computer sales until later in the year, possibly closer to the fourth quarter.

      Gatekeeper
      "I may not agree with what you have to say, but I'll die defending your right to say it." — Voltaire

      "Wheresoever you go, go with all your heart." — Confucius

      Comment


      • This happened last year again. Apple has a habit of making conservative estimates, which makes them look better when they beat expectations.

        Whoever sold their stock today is most likely a fool, since the word on the street is that Apple held back some new products because Intel could not yet supply enough chips for manufacture.

        I tend to believe this, since the Macworld keynote this year spent a lot more time demoing a lot less than usual. Rumours say that the new products were withdrawn from keynote consideration quite late on.
        Only feebs vote.

        Comment


        • I see that the iPod has begun losing market share. It should follow Apple's natural course of products. In 5 years from now, it will be at 10%.
          In Soviet Russia, Fake borises YOU.

          Comment


          • Samsung in particularly is boosting its marketing from $1M to $130M, IIRC (same as what Apple spent in iPod advertising last year).
            "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
            Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

            Comment


            • Update: Apple shares down another 4.19% today, to ~$79.

              Edit: And AMD up 11%.
              Last edited by Asher; January 19, 2006, 19:15.
              "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
              Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

              Comment


              • Apple shares down another 3.74% today, to ~$76.
                "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

                Comment


                • Apple vs Nasdaq, last 5 days.
                  Attached Files
                  "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                  Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

                  Comment


                  • So, uh... it's just me and you in this thread, Asher.

                    What's up?
                    B♭3

                    Comment


                    • I'm enjoying the Apple stock normalizing itself.

                      I'm also installing Ubuntu 6.x "Flight 3" on my laptop.

                      It's being stupid and won't let me install Eclipse through the Package Manager, but it is alpha software...
                      "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                      Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

                      Comment


                      • So, outside of Eclipse bit, how do you like Ubuntu? Probably won't take me away from Gentoo, but... maybe on the laptop. Possibly.
                        B♭3

                        Comment


                        • It's pretty good for the laptop, at least. I'd use Gentoo on my AMD64 PC, for performance reasons. But for the laptop I just want it to work.

                          It's regularly updated, feels polished and looks good. Some things that never worked right under other distros just work.

                          I had problems with my trackpoint/touchpad in Ubuntu 5.04...it was just soooooooooo slow even when set to maximum. It's fixed in 6.x. So yay.

                          The SVG icons in the new gtk/gnome are nice, too.
                          "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                          Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

                          Comment


                          • Blech, Gnome. Never been a fan, largely due to Nautilus. Might play around with Kubuntu, though, instead.
                            B♭3

                            Comment


                            • I've got Kubuntu installed too (you can install that through the package manager). I just don't like the default feel of KDE...one-click actions. Annoying.
                              "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                              Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

                              Comment


                              • Yeah... KDE's got issues too. Too bad there's no Fluxbuntu or something, eh?


                                ...I mean, what's that all aboot?
                                B♭3

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