CanPol: Race to the Finish

[Bosh]

a Conservative/NDP pair-up.

[Flinx]

You forget they are all Politicians

[Flinx]

More Poll Results > Seat Predictions

IPSOS-REID also put out a new poll this weekend. Pluging the numbers from this Jan 2-5 poll into my seat predictions model:

Canada ......88 131 28 61  0
BC ..........13  19  4  0  0
AB............4  24  0  0  0
SK MB.........4  20  4  0  0
ON...........34  55 17  0  0
QC........... 8   6  0 61  0
NB NS PE NL..22   7  3  0  0

This poll also suggests a "stable" Conservative/NDP two party minority might be the result on January 23.

[Flinx]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
A Liberal shutout in Manitoba and Saskatchewan?

What about Wascana?

OOPS!

I fixed the Leger poll seat predections, I had typed the Liberals as having 2% in MB/SK into my model whereas the poll actually has them at 21%

[Ben Kenobi]

The BC numbers are awful volatile.

And I'm not sure where you find 6 seats in Quebec that would go to the Conservatives.

But 55 seats in Ontario is a stunner.

[notyoueither]

A 5 point lead in Ontario translates into a massive advantage outside of the GTA, doesn't it?

[notyoueither]

That poll has the Tories only 2 points lower in Ontario than in MB and SK.

[joncha]

Maybe Flinx could plug in the polling numbers from the last election and show us what seats his model would have predicted then...

[notyoueither]

WTH is going on?!

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060103/ELXN_poll_jan08_060108/20060108?s_name=election2006

Conservatives surge ahead of Liberals in new poll
Updated Sun. Jan. 8 2006 11:39 PM ET

CTV.ca News Staff

The Conservatives have taken an eight-point lead over the Liberals, with strong momentum that could carry them to victory on Jan. 23 unless the other parties can derail their campaign, says a new poll.

"They've got to put a halt to this, because this momentum number won't stop, and it will continue to translate into a higher vote preference for the Conservatives," Tim Woolstencroft, managing partner of The Strategic Counsel, told CTV.ca on Sunday.

The survey, conducted by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail, shows the Conservatives have jumped ahead after making headway in Quebec, Ontario and Atlantic Canada(percentage point change from a Dec. 20-22 poll in brackets):
Conservatives: 37 per cent (+8)
Liberals 29 per cent (-7)
NDP: 15 per cent (-2)
Bloc Quebecois: 13 per cent (unchanged)
Greens: 6 per cent (+1)

When asked which party has momentum going towards the Jan. 23 vote, the results showed the Tories have a huge advantage over the other parties (percentage point change from a Dec. 20-22 poll in brackets):
Conservatives: 53 per cent (+30)
Liberals: 14 per cent (-19)
NDP: 6 per cent (-4)
Bloc Quebecois: 6 per cent (-3)
Greens: 1 per cent (-1)

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's focus on the sponsorship scandal and alleged income trust leak seems to be working. There has been a rise in the number of Canadians who think the values of the Conservative Party match their own (percentage point change from a pre-election, Nov. 24-27 poll in brackets):
Conservatives: 29 per cent (+5)
Liberals: 23 per cent (-4)
NDP: 17 per cent (-1)
Bloc Quebecois: 9 per cent (-2)
Greens: 5 per cent (+1)

The Conservatives are also beating the Liberals on which platform voters prefer. Twice as many Canadians found that the Conservative Party has introduced the most appealing policies:
Conservatives: 36 per cent
Liberals: 18 per cent
NDP: 12 per cent
Bloc Quebecois: 5 per cent
Greens: 3 per cent
"The Conservative policies have been targeted at the middle-class voter, and clearly that's connecting," Woolstencroft said.

"We see that in Quebec, and we see that across the country. Those moderate, middle-class policies have struck a chord."

Regional numbers

Conservatives have made a dramatic jump in Quebec since Christmas, far surpassing the party's 2004 election results and taking votes away from the Bloc.

With momentum still climbing, especially outside Montreal, Woolstencroft said the Tories will likely win at least two seats in the province (percentage point change from a Dec. 20-22 poll in brackets):
Bloc Quebecois: 52 per cent (unchanged)
Liberals: 21 per cent (-8)
Conservatives: 19 per cent (+11)
NDP: 6 per cent (-2)
Greens: 2 per cent (-1)

"When we ran our model last week and they were at 15 (per cent), we had them at one seat in Quebec City," Woolstencroft said. "At 19 points, they're probably picking up two, three or four seats."

Even in Ontario, where Liberal support has remained strong, the Conservatives have reached a statistical tie with the Grits (percentage point change from a Dec. 20-22 poll in brackets):
Conservatives: 41 per cent (-8){ed, should be +8?}
Liberals: 40 per cent (-7)
NDP: 14 per cent (-2)
Greens: 5 per cent (+1)
In 2004, the Tories had 32 per cent support in Ontario.

Over the Christmas period, votes went from the Liberals to alternative parties such as the NDP and the Green Party, said Allan Gregg, chairman of The Strategic Counsel. However, those same votes are now starting to shift again, but not back to the Liberals.

"The NDP vote and the Green vote have gravitated towards the Conservatives," Gregg said.

In B.C., where 36 seats are available, the Tories have made a large gain and hit another campaign high (percentage point change from a Dec. 20-22 poll in brackets):
Conservatives: 37 per cent (+8)
Liberals: 28 per cent (-7)
NDP: 26 per cent (-4)
Greens: 9 per cent (+3)
"Unquestionably, one of the most competitive regions in the country," Gregg said.

Meanwhile, support for the Conservatives remains firm in the Prairies, while the Liberals have fallen to their lowest point since the start of the campaign (percentage point change from a Dec. 20-22 poll in brackets):
Conservatives: 53 per cent (-1)
Liberals: 18 per cent (-5)
NDP: 20 per cent (+5)
Greens: 9 per cent (-1)
Technical notes:

Results are based on nightly tracking among a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years of age or older.

Findings have been rolled up and analyzed over a three-day period. Interviews were conducted between Jan. 3 and Jan. 8.

The sample size and margin of error (with the margin of error in brackets) for each region from Jan. 5. to Jan. 8 are as follows:

Canada: 1,500 (2.5)
Quebec: 370 (5.1)
Rest of Canada: 1,129 (2.9)
Ontario: 569 (4.1)
Prairies: 246 (6.3)
B.C.: 200 (7.0)
The sample size and margin of error (with the margin of error in brackets) for each region from Jan. 7. to Jan. 8 are as follows:

Canada: 1,000 (3.1)
Quebec: 247 (6.3)
Rest of Canada: 753 (3.6)
Ontario: 379 (5.0)
Here are the questions asked:

Q. (momentum) From what you can tell, which party, if any, is gaining the most popularity and momentum leading up to the election. Is it the ...?
Q. (party support) If the election was being held tomorrow, do you think you'd be supporting the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?
Q. (party support) In that case, which party's candidate in your local area would you be leaning towards at this time? Would it be the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?
Q. Thinking of the main political parties in the federal election, Liberal Party, Conservative Party, New Democratic Party, that is the NDP, Green Party, Bloc Quebecois (ask only in Quebec), which one do you think holds values that are closest to your own?
Q. Thinking of the main political parties in the federal election, Liberal Party, Conservative Party, New Democratic Party, that is the NDP, Green Party, Bloc Quebecois (ask only in Quebec), which one do you think has introduced the most appealing policies or platform during this campaign?
To obtain a written copy of the poll, contact The Strategic Counsel, 21 St. Clair Ave. E., Ste. 2100, Toronto, ON, M4T 1L9.

[notyoueither]

Is this a cruel trick?

I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop.

We just recently had Christmas in Alberta. Pinch me, I'm dreaming if I believe these polls.

15 days to go. Where are those Harper in school girl dress pictures?

[joncha]

Wow. It will be a very interesting last couple of weeks.

[notyoueither]

If this holds true, I am personally going to call Rutherford and deliver a message to the malcontents.

They can kiss my Maple Leaf!

[notyoueither]

/me hits self in head. Low expectations... low expectations... Ohmmmm...

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by notyoueither
If this holds true, I am personally going to call Rutherford and deliver a message to the malcontents.

They can kiss my Maple Leaf!

So your commitment to Canada is based on the Conservatives winning?

Hmmm...

[notyoueither]

Why do you ask that?