CanPol: Race to the Finish

[Flinx]

A Léger poll which came out last night has the Conservative party at 16% in Quebec. Pluging the numbers from that poll into my seat predictions model:

Canada .....104 119 25 60  0
BC ..........12  21  3  0  0
AB............2  26  0  0  0
SK MB.........2  20  6  0  0
ON...........52  38 16  0  0
QC...........12   3  0 60  0
NB NS PE NL..21  11  0  0  0

This poll has whe NDP down everywhere except Ontario which is pretty much the opposite of what has been true in every other poll to date, but this could be due to the large margin of error on the numbers from the smaller regions (everewhere but ON and QC).

[EDIT]I fixed the Leger poll seat predections, I had typed the Liberals as having 2% in MB/SK into my model whereas the poll actually has them at 21%[/EDIT]

[Ben Kenobi]

A Liberal shutout in Manitoba and Saskatchewan?

What about Wascana?

[KrazyHorse]

Tax cuts for everybody...

except the poor

[notyoueither]

That floored me. I have to wonder if the Tories have a built in machine that wakes up at a certain point and guarantees defeat, no matter how large the victory could be.

[joncha]

Ouch.

[notyoueither]

The only bright spot for the Tories is that this is, again, a candidate who shot his mouth off. I wonder why Harper isn't quoted there.

[joncha]

On the National they said it was "the party" that sent out the clarification (Harper had before said he would let the cuts stand, but now they're saying he only meant the 2005 rebates not the reduction from 2006 on), so I don't think it's just one candidate's opinion. Is more likely that Harper doesn't want to comment on because he knows how bad it makes him look.

[joncha]

Ah, it's in the actual article:

The Conservatives voted against those tax cuts in November, but they became law. Late last year, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's staff told CBC Online the Conservatives would let the tax cuts stand if they win the election.
But the Conservatives called CBC this week to say that while they would allow the Liberal tax cut to stand for last year, meaning Canadians will still get that tax rebate, they intend to immediately raise personal income taxes if they are elected later this month.

The Conservatives say a Stephen Harper government would raise the rate on the lowest tax bracket back from 15 per cent back to 16 per cent in their first budget, probably in April. As well, the basic exemption, income on which no tax is charged, would be dropped by $400 in the same budget.

A Tory official acknowledged to CBC News that would likely mean taking back the money taxpayers are saving on their paycheques for the first four months of this year.

The Tories refused to be interviewed on camera for the story. But Kenney later told CBC News Online Friday that this information is not new and referred to Harper's Dec. 1 news release regarding the GST cut.

[notyoueither]

I'll put up $100, right here, right now, that Harper says that story is bull, and the cuts to the cuts aren't on the table. If he doesn't, he's a fool.

Who wants some?

[joncha]

Hmm... playing double or nothing with my tax cut is tempting...

[RedFred]

Looks like a real horse race now. The upcoming debates are critical. Some big swings in opinion could still happen before the election.

The biggest swings I remember are was the Mulroney/Turner election. That was a real see-saw battle.

[Ben Kenobi]

Doesn't Harper also promise to raise the personal exemption? That would offset this raise in taxes for those who make enough to be taxed in the first place.

[notyoueither]

The Liberals just dropped the lowest rate to 15% and increased the basic exemption by $500.

Harper will put it back to 16% and lower the exemption by $400. The stated reason is that his plans as announced, to reduce the GST and other assorted tax goodies are the Tory way while he is running against the Liberal way. Most likely a situation of can't afford both with certainty.

Sounds like a wash.

[Flinx]

Poll Results > Seat Predictions

A very interesting EKOS poll came out yesterday. It is an update to the wacky poll which came out earlier in the week but with a much larger sample, more questions and numbers in-line with other recent polls by other firms. Pluging the numbers from this poll into my seat predictions model:

Canada ......90 133 24 61  0
BC .......... 6  26  4  0  0
AB............0  28  0  0  0
SK MB.........9  18  1  0  0
ON...........41  48 17  0  0
QC........... 8   6  0 61  0
NB NS PE NL..23   7  2  0  0

This is the the first poll to give a "stable" two party minority with 157 for a Conservative/NDP pair-up.

[Ninot]

Just saw a poll conducted across Canada and Quebec.

Who would be the best leader?

Across Canada, they showed that Harper had about 23% and Martin 22%...

but in Quebec...

While the Block is still at 48% support in Quebec, voters are realistic and only 17% see Duceppe as a potential leader of Canada.

The suprising bit is, in Quebec, by 3 or 4 points, more people see Harper as a good leader than Martin.